The second major championship of the year is here, with the PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club testing the best of the best this week.
Expect plenty of movement to the PGA Championship odds leading into Round 1 on Thursday, and Jon Rahm is a guy I have my eyes on with a +2,000 outlier price at BetMGM.
Him winning the 2024 PGA Championship is my top bet to make before the golf odds move, and you’ll also want to make sure to check out the rest of our PGA Championship picks and golf picks before Thursday.
Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,000)
Rewind a year and Jon Rahm was the co-betting favorite in the +750 neighborhood to win the 2023 PGA Championship. He’s now trading as short as +1,400 through Caesars to win at Valhalla Golf Club this time around.
His game passes the eye test and checks out statistically, with his T45 at Augusta National being overpriced into his odds. Additionally, while he hasn’t won since joining the LIV Golf circuit, the Spaniard has carded a Top 10 in all seven events with four Top 5s.
Statistically, he gained true strokes tee-to-green at the Masters and he paces LIV Golf in birdie average with 5.24 per round. Rahm also ranks inside the Top 10 in driving distance, greens-in-regulation percentage, and putting average.
His game is the prototype of what it takes to win at Valhalla and he's consistently contended and won at similar long and demanding tracks.
In addition to his two majors at Augusta National and Torrey Pines, Rahm has won at Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields since the 2020 season. All are difficult tracks, and all featured strong fields.
Returning to the outlier BetMGM odds, the edge between +2,000 and the +1,400 price checks out as a positive expected value of 41%. In dollars and cents, it’s a difference of $150 in profit on a $25 outright ticket.
Pick: Jon Rahm to win outright (+2,000 at BetMGM)
Pick: Jon Rahm Top 20 (-105 at bet365)
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