Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga Odds, Picks and Predictions: Gaels Stand Real Shot

The two top seeds have advanced to the West Coast Conference Championship, providing the matchup everyone wanted to see in the finale — No. 9 Gonzaga (27-5) and No. 16 Saint Mary’s (26-6). 

It hasn't been an arduous tournament for either side. Both received triple-byes and went straight to the semifinals, which took place on Monday night. 

It should come as no surprise that this is the finals matchup considering one of these schools has captured every WCC tournament title since 2009. 

I break it all down in my college basketball betting picks for Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga below. 

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga best odds

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Gonzaga’s stranglehold over the WCC is well-documented. The Zags have won 22 of the last 23 regular-season conference titles and 18 of the last 23 WCC tournaments. 

Saint Mary’s has been the next best thing in the conference. The Gaels won each of the three most-recent non-Gonzaga tournament titles, claiming success in 2010, 2012, and 2019. 

While Gonzaga stands head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, Saint Mary’s is at least approaching shoulder level. They’re as close to a worthy adversary as exists in this conference, finishing runner-up in the tournament final four separate times since 2016.

There’s no love lost between these rivals, as Gonzaga star Drew Timme described it as a “respected hatred for each other”. 

These teams played twice during the regular season, splitting the games 1-1 as the home team won both times. Saint Mary’s trailed for the majority of the first matchup in Moraga, going down by eight points with over six minutes to play. Freshman point guard Aidan Mahaney caught fire to end the game and the Gaels pulled off a 78-70 comeback victory in overtime. Gonzaga won the most recent matchup 77-68 in Spokane to conclude regular-season conference play. 

I believe Saint Mary’s has narrowed the gap this season and has a real chance of pulling off the victory Tuesday night. The Gaels actually rank above Gonzaga in KenPom, checking in at seventh overall compared to the Bulldogs at 10th. 

They'll need to make some adjustments, especially against the press. BYU went to a full-court press and the Gaels were unreluctant to push the ball upcourt for easy buckets, which allowed the Cougars to mount a furious comeback.

Gonzaga utilized a 1-2-2 press in the regular-season finale that flummoxed the Gaels. Randy Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country and I believe he'll be able to install a few adjustments to have his team ready this time around. 

Gonzaga hasn’t been its typical dominant self this season, pulling off narrow victories over the likes of San Francisco, Santa Clara, and BYU while falling to LMU. The Zags faced four Top-10 teams and went just 1-3 this season. While the Gaels don’t technically fit the billing as a Top-10 team, they do analytically. 

The Gaels already beat the Zags once and stand a chance to do so again on a neutral court. Gonzaga has been a disaster at the betting window when playing outside of Spokane, notching a 4-13 ATS record in games away from home.

I’ll back the Gaels against the spread as their elite defense should be able to keep this one tight. I grabbed +3.5 early Tuesday morning and think there may be an opportunity for an even better line later on in the day. 

My best bet: Saint Mary's +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga spread analysis

Gonzaga currently sits as a -3.5 favorite across the board. There might be more love for Gonzaga in the market just as there was for the last matchup in Spokane, in which case the line could conceivably move toward the favorite. 

Gonzaga checks in at 10th overall in KenPom, ranking first nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency but just 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Few’s side has been quite unprofitable for bettors this season. The Zags are just 12-18-1 ATS on the year, struggling to meet outsized expectations. That’s what can happen when you’re one of the top programs in the country every year. 

Playing in neutral-site games has been a hindrance to the Bulldogs, who are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 such games. The opposite can be said of Saint Mary’s, which racked up a 5-1 ATS record in six neutral-site games this year. That includes four straight covers. 

Saint Mary’s is a profitable 17-12-2 ATS overall this season. The Gaels check in at seventh overall in KenPom, ranking 33rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga Over/Under analysis

The total has opened as low as 139 and as high as 140.5 for this matchup. 

This game is a huge contrast of styles. Gonzaga likes to get out and run offensively to utilize its many weapons, checking in at 43rd in adjusted tempo. The Zags are the nation’s top-scoring team at 88 points per game and also rank first in field goal percentage at 52.9%. 

Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, opts to slow games down to a halt in order to bust utilize its fearsome defense. The Gaels rank sixth in scoring defense at 59.3 points per game and clean the glass after opponent misses, ranking fourth in defensive rebounding. Bennett’s side ranks 359th out of 363 teams in adjusted tempo. 

I think Gonzaga will do everything in its power to speed up the tempo in this matchup, as it's paramount for a Bulldogs victory and Few knows that. I can’t say enough about how crucial BYU’s full-court pressure was in swinging the momentum in its game last night against Saint Mary’s. Mark Few would be wise to use a similar approach in the final. 

He went to a 1-2-2 press in the first matchup and likely throws out more pressure in this spot, speeding up the game and resulting in more possessions than one would typically see in a Saint Mary’s game.

The Gaels left guys wide open under the basket against BYU and instead pulled the ball out up top to stall the game clock. They did this in order to stall time and keep the clock ticking considering they held a 23-point second-half lead — think of it like Iowa or Wisconsin bleeding the clock in a Big Noon Kickoff. 

Bleeding the clock will not be so easy against a team like Gonzaga — the nation’s most potent offense. The Gaels won’t leave points on the board if given a chance and Logan Johnson’s emergence as an athletic scoring threat provides them with an answer to attack the rim in transition if presented with easy buckets.

I think both teams will be able to score the ball in this matchup and lean toward the Over. 

Saint Mary's vs Gonzaga betting trend to know

Gonzaga is 4-13 ATS in games away from home this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Saint Mary's vs. Gonzaga.

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