Arizona vs UCLA Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wildcats Hold Slight Advantage Over Shorthanded Bruins

Fans got the matchup they wanted to see in the Pac-12 Tournament final as the top-seeded UCLA Bruins (27-6) are set to face off with the second-seeded Arizona Wildcats (29-4).

The Bruins have battled through injuries to two starting players to advance with relative ease, notching an 80-69 win over Colorado in the quarterfinals and a 75-56 victory over Oregon in the semis.

Meanwhile, Arizona notched a 95-84 win over Stanford in the quarterfinals and went on to blow out Arizona State 78-59. 

Which of these two powerhouses will prevail in Las Vegas? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Arizona vs. UCLA on March 11.

Arizona vs UCLA best odds

Arizona vs UCLA picks and predictions

This will be a heavyweight title fight as two power-punching programs meet in Las Vegas. Tournament finals don’t always feature the league’s two best teams, but that’s exactly what’s on tap for the Pac-12 finale. 

Each school currently sits as a No. 2 seed according to Bracket Matrix, although UCLA is on the verge of being named a No. 1 seed. A win Saturday night might be difficult for the committee to ignore. UCLA checks in at second overall at KenPom while Arizona is 11th.

Both teams also enter the final shorthanded — albeit to a vastly different degree.

The Bruins have been hit extremely hard by injuries lately and will be without Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Jaylen Clark for the season after he suffered an Achilles injury in the regular season finale. Additionally, the status of star big man Adem Bona — one of the best freshmen in the entire country— is in doubt after he left the semifinal matchup against Oregon with a shoulder injury.

The Wildcats are dealing with an injury to starting point guard Kerr Kriisa, who injured his shoulder in the quarterfinal against Stanford. He’s clearly not at 100% and infamously shot a free throw left-handed late in that game. Kriisa also finished with just five points against Arizona State on 2-8 shooting from the field and 1-7 shooting from behind the arc.

These schools met twice in the regular season, with the home team coming out victorious in each. Arizona pulled off a surprisingly low-scoring 58-52 win in Tucson and then UCLA got revenge with an 82-73 triumph in Westwood in the regular season finale.

Even though both teams have locked up a high seed in the big dance, I don’t expect a huge letdown from either side. This is a championship game and both programs are immensely prideful of their standing in the conference.

Emotions will be running high for UCLA, as the Bruins have managed to stick together as a team despite two injuries that would be overwhelming for nearly any other program. Arizona has had revenge on its mind all tournament and that won’t change in the final against a Bruins team that beat them to finish the regular season.

Bona’s status will be crucial in this matchup, facing an Arizona frontcourt in Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo that combines to average 34 points and 17.6 rebounds per game.

Outside of Bona, the Bruins don’t have another player on the roster who stands 6-10 or above. Kenneth Nwuba and Mac Etienne are the two names likely to fill in if needed, but neither average more than 11 minutes per game. They play minor roles in the rotation for a reason and would be a downgrade if Bona is out.

Even if Bona does play, it’s unlikely he’ll be at 100% — a huge concern against this Arizona frontcourt. The Bruins have shown incredible willpower and have embodied the indomitable spirit, but sometimes enough becomes enough and the injuries are insurmountable. This is a tight handicap when all things are equal, but this game is not being played in a vacuum.

UCLA is dealing with injuries to two of its four best players. Therefore, I’ll pick the healthier team as a short underdog.

My best bet: Arizona +1 (-110 at bet365)

Arizona vs UCLA spread analysis

This line is essentially a pick'em, as UCLA is favored by a single point at most books. If looking to play the moneyline, both teams can be had at -110 in most locations.

The Bruins have been underrated by bookmakers all season and are 20-12-1 against the spread. They have the Pac-12 Player of the Year in Jaime Jaquez, who averages 17.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.6 blocks per game. Tyger Campbell was also huge with 20 second-half points against Oregon and is another extremely experienced player. 

Arizona is 16-16-1 ATS overall. The Wildcats are led by Tubelis and Ballo and have three other players averaging double-figures — Kriisa, Courtney Ramey, and Pelle Larsson.

Both teams have performed well in Quad 1 games this season, but one has been slightly better — UCLA is 8-4 while Arizona is 8-2. 

Arizona vs UCLA Over/Under analysis

Arizona is a high-flying team that is 18-15 to the Over this season while averaging 83.3 points per game — fourth-most of any team nationally. The Wildcats rank sixth in offensive efficiency per KenPom and will face a tough task in consistently scoring against a Bruins defense checking in at second in efficiency.

UCLA plays at a methodical pace, ranking 223rd in adjusted tempo. The Bruins allow just 60.1 points per game while limiting opponents to 40.7% from the field and 31.1% from behind the arc.

We’ve seen two different styles of play from the Bruins since Clark’s injury — an up-tempo affair against Colorado that easily cashed the Over, and a slow game against Oregon went hit the Under by a three-point margin. I lean toward this game playing toward the Over as Arizona should do everything in its power to push the pace and attack the Bruins’ frontcourt defense.

While UCLA may not necessarily want to get in a track meet, it does have the horses to do so and go score-for-score with the Wildcats for swaths of this game.

Arizona vs UCLA betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Arizona vs. UCLA.

Arizona vs UCLA game info

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