Best NBA Player Props Today: Super Simons Powers Up From Deep

Prop bet #1: My Simons

You’d be forgiven for not keeping a close eye on the Portland Trail Blazers this season. They’re just 7-21 in their first campaign following the trade of franchise legend Damian Lillard, and No.2 overall pick Scoot Henderson has not made a strong impression to begin his young career.

But if you look a little closer, there is a lot to like about what the Blazers are up to lately. Of the teams that are not contending for a play-in spot, they’re easily the most fun to watch. All of that starts with the play of Anfernee Simons, who is having a strong season as the lead guard for Portland.

Simons has been brought along slowly by the Blazers, first as Dame’s understudy, then as his backcourt partner, and now as the true No.1 option. Simons has seen a gigantic jump in usage rate this year and has more or less maintained his efficiency from every spot on the floor. 

Part of it is his improved craft as a dribbler. Ant has become one of the better guards at leveraging his athleticism to get to his spots on the floor. But another piece has been the recent absence of Shaedon Sharpe. Sharpe is another pillar of the Trail Blazers' young core and has missed two games with a strained adductor. 

While Sharpe is officially questionable tonight, that’s an ambitious return date. Sharpe was forced to leave December 19th's game against the Phoenix Suns after just eight minutes. If a muscle injury like that is bad enough to force you off the floor, you’ll typically miss at least a week of action. The Blazers are also incentivized to slow play Sharpe’s return to avoid aggravating the injury and to increase their odds of a top pick.

Simons is taking 9.3 threes a game and hitting at a 39.8% clip. He’s also hit seven triples in back-to-back games. He took 27 threes combined in the two games since Sharpe went out.

With Simons as the head of the snake and with the greenest of green lights, I believe Tuesday’s Anfernee Simons odds are simply too low.

Anfernee Simons prop: Over 3.5 made threes (-145 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: A rocket ship

The Houston Rockets are one of this season’s success stories. But when people tell that story, they tend to focus on the rise of Alperen Sengun, their free agency additions, or their new head coach. But lately, a big reason for their success has been improved play and the increasing workload of Jabari Smith Jr.

While his defense has solidified his role in the rotation, Jabari has quietly made big strides as a scorer. Smith had a horrendous shooting season as a rookie despite being highly touted coming out of college, but he’s begun to turn that around in a big way in year two.

Smith has improved his 3-point percentage from 30.7% to 38.7%, and his 2-point percentage from 48.7% to .57.9%. Part of that jump is just hitting more shots while another is taking them better spots on the floor, and yet another is the attention Sengun now draws as the Rockets' bonafide top offensive option.

A lot of rookies have disappointing shooting seasons from outside as they adjust to the NBA line, and Smith was no exception. There was little reason to be concerned, though, as a player with his track record and his size was always going to be a good shooter. 

But Smith has also improved by significantly increasing the number of shots he takes at the rim, which is promising for a player touted as a perimeter specialist.

And Smith should have a serious matchup advantage attacking the basket against the Indiana Pacers. Myles Turner is a solid rim protector (though not as good as he’s been in prior years) but the rest of the Pacers offer little resistance in the paint. Obi Toppin is their starting power forward, and he’s a guard in all but height in terms of impact. Against a smaller Pacers rotation, I think these Jabari Smith Jr. odds become very favorable.

Sengun is also a legitimate All-Star-level scorer now, and the opposing defense has to gear up to face him. Most opposing teams won’t be focused on Smith, even though he’s averaged 27 points over the last three games.

Jabari Smith Jr. prop: Over 17.5 points (-105 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Baller Brooks

Dillon Brooks has been another of the big reasons for the Rockets' turnaround. Not only has he been giving them his usual outstanding on-ball defense, but Brooks has turned in the best scoring season of his career.

Brooks shot the lights out for Team Canada in the FIBA World Cup, and that’s carried over to the NBA season. Dillon is hitting 41.1% from downtown on 4.8 attempts per game, a drastic jump from his prior career best.

Brooks’ usage has also dropped to career-low levels this season, while his efficiency is at career highs. Those trends are directly related. Ime Udoka has reined in Brooks’ worst tendencies while empowering him to take the right shots.  He’s cut the off-the-dribble pull-up three out of his game almost entirely, with 98% of his 3-point makes coming directly off assists per Cleaning the Glass.

Brooks’ role has been largely matchup-dependent, but he’s been called to play heavy minutes when the goal is to neutralize opposing star guards. He played 38 minutes against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, December 18 to go toe-to-toe with Donovan Mitchell

Dillon will thus likely play heavy minutes tonight to match up with Tyrese Haliburton. With more minutes will come more shot attempts, which is why I like these Dillon Brooks odds as my third favorite prop bet on today’s board.

Dillon Brooks prop: Over 1.5 made threes (-120 at bet365)