It still feels like it’s one step forward, two steps back for the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors halted a four-game losing streak against the Atlanta Hawks but a poor defensive showing meant a loss in the immediate rematch.
Toronto has now lost five of six heading into tonight’s matchup with the visiting Charlotte Hornets but things may be even more bleak for Buzz City. The Hornets have lost four in a row and are dealing with a ton of injuries. So, that means the NBA odds have the Raps as hefty double-digit home favorites.
However, Toronto hasn’t really proven reliable as big chalk this season. Can they cover this spread against a buzz-less Hornets team? I break down this Eastern Conference matchup and bring you the best bet in my NBA picks and predictions for Hornets vs. Raptors.
Hornets vs Raptors odds
Hornets vs Raptors predictions
Everyone knows by now that this Toronto Raptors team isn’t exactly flush with elite shooters and that inconsistency shooting the basketball has cost them this season.
Following last Friday’s 125-104 loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the Raps have lost five of their last six straight up and against the spread heading into tonight’s matchup against the Charlotte Hornets. That includes a 119-116 loss to this same Hornets team back on Dec. 8 in Charlotte.
We've previously talked about how the Raptors attempt to combat their poor shooting by emphasizing passing the ball more. But there is another way to counteract that, and that’s by working the ball down low to center Jakob Poeltl.
Jak is having another solid season for the Raps, even if he isn’t a perfect scheme fit for what they are trying to do. The Toronto big man is averaging 11.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game this season while recording 10 double-doubles. With the way the Hornets are entering this game, he should have a big edge in this one.
The Hornets have been devastated by injuries. LaMelo Ball, is out for the foreseeable future with an ankle injury and while Gordon Heyward (illness) and PJ Washington (shoulder) are questionable, the big injury we are looking at here is center Mark Williams.
The second-year man out of Duke was having a breakout year for the Hornets, but he is doubtful to play in this one with a back injury.
Even with Williams in the lineup, the Hornets’ defensive numbers are pretty ugly. They rank dead last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating, 24th in rebounding rate, 25th in opponent rebounds per game, and 25th in opponent points in the paint.
Poeltl when for eight and eight in the most recent meeting with Charlotte where Williams played. With him unlikely to suit up this time around that should mean plenty of room for Poeltl to work in the paint and set him up nicely to record his 11th double-double of the season and his eighth in his last 16 games.
My best bet: Jakob Poeltl to record a double double (+170 at Pointsbet)
Hornets vs Raptors same-game parlay
Jakob Poeltl Over 20.5 points
Pascal Siakam Over 5.5 assists
Raptors first quarter moneyline
Now usually our same-game parlay begins with my best bet, but some sportsbooks don’t allow for double-doubles to be included as a leg in these bets. So, instead, let’s add Jakob Poeltl to go Over his points + rebounding prop which is sitting at 20.5. He’s gone Over that number in seven of his last 10 games.
Next, let’s add Pascal Siakam to go Over 5.5 assists. We’ve talked in the past about how the Raptors make the extra pass to help out their poor shooting. Siakam averages 5.0 assists per game but I like him to get an extra dime or two against this porous Hornets defense. The Hornets also rank 24th when it comes to opponent assists per game.
Let’s close this SGP out with the Raptors to get off to a good start against this shorthanded Hornets team. Charlotte already ranks 26th in first-quarter scoring when on the road and could be without several key players for this matchup. While Toronto generally comes out with better energy when playing at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Hornets vs Raptors spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite losing a matchup to this same Hornets team 119-116 as 5.5-point road favorites just 10 days ago, the Raptors are big 11-point home favorites this time around.
A big reason for that is because the Hornets have lost all their buzz due to injuries. Obviously, not having their best player LaMelo Ball is a big deal. But he didn’t play in that last matchup either. Center Mark Williams is doubtful, while Gordon Hayward and PJ Washington are questionable. Even Terry Rozier won’t be 100 percent, despite being listed as probable.
On top of that, rumors are swirling that Hornets’ forward Miles Bridges was denied entry into Toronto due to his ongoing domestic violence case, which has an upcoming court date. So, the Hornets could be in a really bad place here.
They are also coming off an embarrassing 135-82 loss courtesy of the Philadelphia 76ers. But all that said, I’m not sure I trust the Raptors as big favorites.
Toronto has proven inconsistent all season. The shooting was always going to be a problem but the Raps defense has taken a step back as well. Since the start of November, Toronto ranks 23rd in defensive rating, 30th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and 20th in opponent scoring, allowing 117.1 points per game.
For those reasons, I’m staying away from the spread here, but that does have me looking toward the total, which hit the board at 226.5. The early action has come in on the Under, moving the number to 224.
That said I would lean toward the Over at this new number. The Raptors should face very little resistance when it comes to scoring the basketball and even a G-League team could have some success against Toronto they way it has played defense lately. At least, enough to send this one over the number.
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Hornets vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Raptors have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 35 games at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Raptors.
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Hornets vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, December 18, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports Southeast |
Hornets vs Raptors latest injuries
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