Bank of America ROVAL 400: Charlotte Picks, Odds & Race Preview

It's bubble time again as the NASCAR playoffs drift into Charlotte Motor Speedway's Road Course for the Bank of America ROVAL 400. It's the final race before the postseason field is whittled down to the Round of 8, and the NASCAR odds are eyeing a tight, and intriguing, battle at the top. 

William Byron still leads the season-long NASCAR Cup Series odds, and he's among the favorites for this weekend's race as well. But can Chase Elliott play spoiler as he continues to dominate road courses?

Let's check out the Bank of America ROVAL 400 odds as we preview the field, then break down the betting action with our NASCAR betting picks.

Odds to win 2023 Bank of America ROVAL 400

Driver
Chase Elliott	+600
William Byron	+650
Tyler Reddick	+700
Michael McDowell	+900
Kyle Larson	+900
A.J. Allmendinger	+1,000
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,200
Kyle Busch	+1,600
Denny Hamlin	+1,800
Daniel Suarez	+1,800
Christopher Bell	+1,800
Ty Gibbs	+2,000
Chris Buescher	+2,200
Ryan Blaney	+2,800
Ross Chastain	+2,800
Joey Logano	+2,800
Kevin Harvick	+3,000
Austin Cindric	+3,500
Alex Bowman	+3,500
Chase Briscoe	+4,500

Odds as of October 3, 2023.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 field

This odds board is, well, kind of odd. We're seeing a steady mix of playoff contenders and road course specialists near the top, with the long-eliminated Chase Elliott leading the way, mostly just because he's Chase Elliott and this is a road course. Not for nothing, Elliott does also have Top-8 finishes in six of the past eight races, so he's stayed sharp despite missing the playoffs after an early-season injury.

William Byron joins him near the top, mostly just because he's William Byron, and has been winning everywhere on the circuit this year. He took the season's last road course win at Watkins Glen, and will look to put more distance between himself and the rest of the field.

Road course specialist Tyler Reddick rounds out the Top 3, having already picked up a win at COTA this season, and needing a strong performance, currently on the playoff bubble in ninth, ahead of the Round of 8. 

Again, plenty of eliminated road-course specialists also populate the Top 10 — Michael McDowell, A.J. Allmendinger, and Daniel Suarez — so the books aren't counting out the possibility of someone playing spoiler. Last week's Talladega winner, Ryan Blaney, sits at a fairly distant +2,800, indicative of the contrast in course conditions.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 picks and predictions

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Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, September 24, 2023.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Chase Elliott (+600)

He’s won two of the last four ROVAL races, was sixth in the prior one, 12th in 2021 despite a run-in with Kevin Harvick. A year ago, Elliott also was fourth in COTA, eighth in Sonoma, second in Road America, 16th at Indy, but lined on the front row for the second to last restart and fourth in Watkins Glen after leading the final restart. This year, he’s finished fifth (Sonoma), third (Chicago), second (Indianapolis) and 32nd (Watkins Glen). My only concern is the lack of speed this year. He’s led just eight laps on them. 

William Byron (+650)

16th a year ago, but was sixth, sixth and 11th in his three prior starts. He just won at Watkins Glen and was fifth earlier this season in COTA. He was solid in being 14th, 13th, 14th in the other three road races. Byron has scored the most points on road courses (154) this season and has led two races for 94 laps.

Tyler Reddick (+700)

His last two ROVAL finishes were second and eighth, respectively. A year ago on road courses, he had a pair of wins (Road America, Indy) to go along with being fifth (COTA) and seventh (Watkins Glen). This year, he’s finished first (COTA), 33rd (Sonoma), 28th (Chicago), fourth (Indy) and eighth (Watkins Glen) to accumulate the fourth-most points (133). He’s only led at COTA though (1x for 41 laps). 

Bank of America ROVAL 400 sleepers

Kyle Busch (+1,600)

Third a year ago, fourth the year prior, and had three Top-5 finishes in as many races to start the road racing season off, including a pair of runner-ups. He was 36th at Indy but was in the Top 5 before an issue. Watkins Glen, they were just 14th. This car was runner-up in 2021. Busch has the sixth-most points tabulated on road courses this season at 123. 

Christopher Bell (+1,800)

Won last year, won the Daytona ROVAL in 2021, and was eighth on the Charlotte ROVAL in 2021, too. On road courses this season, he’s finished 31st, ninth, 18th, ninth, and third. Bell has the eighth-most road course points (121) scored in 2023, just seven points shy of fifth-best. 

Chris Buescher (+2,200)

His final five road course finishes last year read: second (Sonoma), sixth (Road America), 10th (Indianapolis) ninth (Watkins Glen), and sixth (ROVAL). This year, he’s finished eighth, fourth, 10th, 11th and seventh on them. He’s had the fifth-most points (128) on them but has led just one lap, too. 

Bank of America ROVAL 400 fades

Kyle Larson (+900)

Only 26th in this race a year ago, 14th, eighth, fourth, eighth and 26th on road races this season too. Larson has led no laps and has the 10th-most points scored in 2023 on these tracks. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+1,200)

The good? 135 points scored on these tracks in 2023. That ranks third. He’s also led the third-most laps (51). He’s finished 17th, first, 32nd, seventh, sixth on them this season. The bad? The 51 laps led were all in one race (Sonoma). Plus, last year, he finished seventh, 26th, 13th, 21st, 23rd and 17th on them. Truex should have won the inaugural race here, was seventh in the two races after that, but 29th and 17th gives me concern too. Also, in the playoffs, he’s finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th and 18th. He’s led no laps. In fact, if you go back to the regular season finale at Daytona, he’s finished 18th or worse in all six races. 

Denny Hamlin (+1,800)

He’s finished 12th, 19th, 15th, fifth, and 13th here. On the season, he’s came home 16th, 36th, 11th, 19th, and second. Last year, he was 18th, 31st, 17th, 14th, 20th, and 13th. Hamlin has the 12th-most points (112) but fourth-most laps led (44) this season. He’s led laps in three of the five races. 

Bank of America ROVAL 400 prop pick

AJ Allmendinger Top-5 finish (+120)

He’s undefeated in the Xfinity Series here (4-0), was fourth in last year’s Cup race and fourth in the last road race of the season at Watkins Glen too. With the race winner likely being in the playoffs, I like Allmendinger for a Top-5 finish (+120) over an outright win. 

Pick: AJ Allmendinger Top-5 finish (+120 at DraftKings)

Charlotte Motor Speedway track analysis

Chevrolet is 2-for-5 on the season on the road courses this season. By comparison, Chevy went 5-for-6 last year on road courses and had won the final six road races in 2021 too. Are they the favorites? They’ve won three of the last four here and, on the season, they led 29 of 75 laps in COTA, 25 of 110 in Sonoma, 32 of 78 in Chicago, seven of 82 at Indy, and 70 of 90 in Watkins Glen. 

By comparison, the Toyotas won here last year, led 42 of 75 in COTA, 84 of 110 in Sonoma, 46 of 78 in Chicago, nine in Indy and three in Watkins Glen. They’re also 2-for-5 on road races this season. So, who has the leg up between them?

While Toyota and Chevy are 4-for-5 on road races, Ford did win at Indy. It’s just that they largely lack on these tracks though, too. 

They led four laps in COTA, two in Sonoma, none in Chicago but 54 in Indianapolis (all by Michael McDowell). However, they came back down to earth in Watkins Glen with 17 laps led (again, all by McDowell). 

Bank of America ROVAL 400 trends

• Only once in five years has someone started in the Top 5 and won. Chase Elliott started second in 2020. Christopher Bell was eighth a year ago. Four of the five race winners started in the Top 10, however.
  
  
• Starting spots on road courses last season: 16th (COTA), eighth (Sonoma), fourth (Road America), first (Indy), second (Watkins Glen), eighth (ROVAL). Starting sports on road courses this season:  second (COTA), eighth (Sonoma), third (Chicago), first (Indy), second (Watkins Glen).
  
  
• In five of the six road courses run last year, the only laps led by the eventual winner all occurred in the final stage. However, they dominated that final stage too, as three of the six road courses this season were won by a driver that also led the most laps. This year, four of the five road races were won by drivers leading the most laps.

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