The NFL’s Week 10 produced an unbalanced Sunday between bettors and the sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- The Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, and Saints spoil the early slate for bettors.
- Houston’s wild win over Jacksonville swings against the books.
- The Eagles are a popular bet against the Packers on MNF.
The public got crushed in the early slate, with sports betting operators enjoying four outright underdog wins and favorites covering just three spreads. The Miami Dolphins were a huge spoiler against the Buffalo Bills, who lost 30-13 as a 9.5-point road favorite.
However, momentum shifted to bettors in Sunday’s late schedule, with four favorites easily winning and covering and three late afternoon games going over the total. The Lions were the most-bet team of the week at BetMGM, and Detroit cruised to a 44-22 win over the Washington Commanders.
Many pregame bettors pushed on the early morning game when the Indianapolis Colts, who were -6 for much of the week, won 31-25 in overtime in Berlin.
“The Berlin game between the Falcons and the Colts definitely had some drama,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook head of football. “Opening at -5.5 and closing at -6.5 created a tight window where line shoppers could have landed on either side of the result.
“With the Colts clearly the better team but failing to capitalize on multiple fourth-down opportunities, anyone backing Indy at -6.5 must’ve felt the sting of missed chances. That kind of game really highlights how crucial timing is in betting and how frustrating it can be when the right side doesn’t cash.”
Flipping the script
The game with the most Hollywood drama, however, came a few hours later when the Houston Texans rallied from a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 36-29. Houston, a top-five most-bet team in terms of handle at BetMGM, closed as a 1-point favorite and took a 30-29 lead with 31 seconds to play.
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence fumbled, and the Texans defense returned the turnover for a touchdown and a cover. The final play upset bookmakers and gave many bettors a needed Sunday win as 76% of the money was on Houston.
BIG MAN TOUCHDOWN TO END IT IN HOUSTON pic.twitter.com/yiygyziETd
— NFL (@NFL) November 9, 2025
“The Texans’ comeback win was one of those classic ‘bad beat’ moments for the book,” Feazel said. “The Texans’ walk-off defensive score was one of those rare, high-impact moments that flips the script entirely. What looked like a solid book result turned into a big swing for the public, and was especially painful when it hit both pre-game and in-play markets.”
Winners and losers
AFC East highlighted the strong start for the books.
“The Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots wins were the winners for the book in the morning against very popular selections,” Feazel said.
Miami had not beaten Buffalo, the second most-bet team by handle at BetMGM, in the last seven attempts before Sunday, and the upset likely killed off a ton of parlays and teasers as well.
The New England Patriots’ 28-23 win as a 2.5-point underdog was another good one for operators as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the second most-bet team by tickets at BetMGM, and the New York Jets (+2) upset Cleveland 27-20. The New York Giants (+4.5) covered by a half-point without winning against the Chicago Bears, and the New Orleans Saints shocked the Carolina Panthers (-5.5).
Houston was the best win for bettors, but they also cleaned up on the renewed Baltimore Ravens, who were 80% of the money and 72% of the tickets at BetMGM. Baltimore held on for a 27-19 win over Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite.
“The Ravens are becoming a public darling with Lamar back in form,” Feazel said. “Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers.”
MNF insights
The Philadelphia Eagles are a popular 1-point road underdog at Green Bay heading into Monday Night Football, getting 69% of the bets and 63% of the money at BetMGM. DraftKings has seen an even higher 75% of the tickets come in on Philadelphia.
The Packers opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but money kept pouring in on the Eagles, who went from +125 on the moneyline down to -102. Over 45 has taken 89% of the handle and 74% of the wagers.
Philadelphia receiver DeVonta Smith’s over 53.5 receiving yards is the most popular player prop at BetMGM, followed by Green Bay wideout Christian Watson’s over 39.5 receiving yards. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is the most-bet player in the anytime touchdown market at +115, while bettors predictably love Saquon Barkley to score the first TD at +700.
