Polymarket’s timeline for a return to the U.S. prediction market scene is becoming clearer.
Polymarket, a crypto-based global trading company that’s re-entering the U.S. after a three-year hiatus, is promoting a fall launch through an advertising campaign on Meta-owned social media sites Facebook and Instagram, according to a report from Sportico.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket is promoting football trading to residents in Texas, where legal sports betting doesn’t operate.
- The global prediction market could be a big challenger to other trading platforms and U.S. sportsbooks.
- Polymarket acquired a federally regulated derivatives exchange in June, opening the door for its markets in the U.S. again.
The platform is also marketing “legal football trading” across the U.S., and one ad is directed at residents of Texas, promoting football trading in a state where sports betting doesn’t operate legally.
Polymarket’s football markets would directly compete with other prediction markets like Kalshi and against legal sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings. The NFL is the most popular betting sport in the U.S., generating billions of dollars wagered by Americans in the back half of the year.
It’s Vrabel vs Daboll tonight in Jersey.
— Polymarket Sports (@PolymarketSport) August 21, 2025
Who’s got the higher ceiling, Jaxson Dart or Drizzy Drake Maye? ⬇️https://t.co/BNK0RW6vYa
Sports betting is operating legally in 38 U.S. states, with Missouri to make it 39 when the Show-Me State launches wagering on Dec. 1.
Bracing for impact
Flutter, which owns FanDuel, said last week that prediction markets haven’t impacted the sportsbook in its legally operating jurisdictions. Kalshi has been offering “Yes” and “No” contracts on the outcome of games since the Super Bowl in February. However, the prediction market platform has recently introduced NFL and college football games with spreads and totals.
On Wednesday, FanDuel announced a partnership with CME Group that will allow the U.S.’s No. 1 sports betting company to offer financial prediction markets to its massive customer base. FanDuel didn’t say that it’s going to offer sports outcome contracts. Flutter CEO Peter Jackson has previously said that he doesn’t want to upset state regulators and stakeholders in legal sports betting jurisdictions.
Polymarket won’t have to worry about that. The prediction market company was blocked from offering event trading in 2022 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates popular U.S. prediction markets Kalshi and Robinhood, but not the crypto-based Polymarket.
However, Polymarket announced in July that it acquired federally regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse QCEX for $112 million, opening the door for the trading company to bring its globally diverse markets, and likely sports contracts that could prove to be a challenge to the current U.S. climate.
Well established
Polymarket is a big player globally.
SimilarWeb data from May 2025 showed that the trading platform recorded 15.9 million visits, more than FanDuel and DraftKings. With a 94% accuracy rate, Polymarket is considered an alternative source for forecasting.
Founded in 2020, the blockchain trading company received a $200-million funding round earlier this year, increasing its valuation to more than $1 billion.
More than $3 billion in contracts were purchased on Polymarket’s trading during the 2024 Presidential Election.
Now, the trading company enters a controversial landscape. Kalshi, which took off during last year’s election after it won a court ruling allowing regulated trading, is involved in legal battles with several U.S. states over sports outcome contracts.
