Missouri’s legal sportsbooks are estimated to take in nearly $4 billion in bets in the first full calendar year of operations, based off data projections from multiple sportsbooks, residents’ per capita income, and prior state launches.
- Missouri sportsbooks are projected to generate nearly $4B in handle in their first full year, with $525M in operator revenue and $50M+ in taxes.
- FanDuel and DraftKings are expected to capture roughly 75% of market share, with combined future handle potentially reaching $5B by 2030.
- Local factors, including border-state access, prediction markets, and team performance, could impact wagering totals and market growth.
Nine Missouri mobile sportsbooks are expected to launch Dec. 1, the state’s first day with legal wagering. These sportsbooks are expected to generate just under $4 billion in handle in the 12 months starting Jan. 1 of next year.
This would mean around $525 million in operator revenue for calendar year 2026, based off hold percentage trends. Missouri’s 10% tax on operator gross gaming revenue could mean more than $50 million in taxes, not accounting for operator deductions.
These figures would rank Missouri as the 16th largest legal, competitive online sports betting market with national brands out of 25 U.S. qualifying jurisdictions. The Show Me State would slot between No. 15 Indiana and No. 17 Louisiana.
December 2025 will likely see outsized handle, revenue, and taxes based on usually high operator launch promotion spending and a full slate of games for the NFL, the most heavily wagered upon U.S. sports league. This would equate to more than $400 million in handle during the state’s first month with legal betting.
Methodology
This projection took in estimates from leading sportsbooks along with historic trends in the two-dozen other comparable legal sports betting jurisdictions in the U.S., then adjusted for Missouri’s population and per capita income.
Representatives from FanDuel, the nation’s No. 1 sportsbook by handle and revenue, told Missouri regulators that they expected to generate $400 million in annual gross gaming revenue at “market maturity” in 2030. FanDuel targets a roughly 15% hold percentage, meaning it would expect around $2.67 billion in handle that year.
DraftKings, the No. 2 operator in both categories, is projecting $175 million in gross gaming revenue in 2030. With its own 15% hold target, that equates to around $1.17 billion in annual handle.
NEW: The following sportsbooks have earned temporary Missouri sports betting licenses, setting them to launch in the state Dec. 1:
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 22, 2025
Bet365
BetMGM
Caesars
FanDuel
Fanatics
ESPN BET
Underdog
They join Circa & DraftKings, which already earned temp license, will also go live Dec 1
FanDuel and DraftKings have roughly 75% market share in competitive markets in which they both operate. Assuming they maintain that ratio, and their rivals average around their historic 10% hold, this would mean another roughly $140 million in combined revenue and around $1.4 billion in handle.
In all, that means just over $5 billion in handle, $700 million in revenue and $70 million in taxes to the state by 2030.
This data was then compared against trends in Indiana and Tennessee, two “mature” markets with comparable populations and nearly identical per capita incomes. Both states saw roughly 33% growth in the past five years from year one to year five in their respective launch cycles.
Taking the five-year trends in these states, then working backwards from the Missouri sports betting apps’ 2030 projections, gives the $4 billion in 2026 handle estimates.
Complicating factors
Beyond unpredictable macroeconomic influences, Missouri’s sports betting totals could be impacted by a host of unique local factors as well as gaming industry changes.
Missouri is the first state with two large population centers bordering jurisdictions with legal sports betting. St. Louis (Illinois) and Kansas City (Kansas) residents have had comparatively convenient access to legal sports betting markets for years; any aspiring bettors would have ample opportunities to register with legal books and wager legally.
This could curtail the typical promotion-fed wagering boom new markets see around sportsbook launch day. Conversely, existing Missouri bettors, now able to bet without crossing state lines, could spark an even greater short-term and long-term growth.
The rise of major prediction markets such as Kalshi, which have operated in Missouri for more than a year, could also be a factor. FanDuel and DraftKings won’t launch their respective markets in the Show Me State, but it remains to be seen how existing sports event contract operators and upcoming platforms such as Polymarket will chip away market share from sportsbooks.
Prediction markets could also be more enticing for high-volume bettors if a scheduled change in gambling tax loss deductions takes effect. Event contracts are taxed differently than sports bet winnings, which could attract would be sportsbook customers, especially “whales” that make up the majority of handle.
Sports outcomes could also play a factor.
Kansas City-area residents were the biggest supporters of the 2024 ballot measure that legalized sports betting and are expected to be among the most prolific bettors beginning next month, with much of the action backing the home NFL team. But the Kansas City Chiefs’ worst season in years, and the growing possibility they miss the playoffs, could curtail Missouri sports betting handle potential in 2025 and 2026.
