A big-time Week 15 in the NFL is setting up to be a difficult battle between bettors and sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- Sportsbooks need big favorites like the Seahawks, Eagles, and 49ers to not cover the spread this week.
- The Bills are drawing a lot of action from the public in a major AFC East matchup.
- The Lions and Chargers are popular underdogs.
There are a half-dozen favorites listed by more than a touchdown and another six games set at under a field goal. Ticket and handle splits greatly differ across three major sportsbooks.
One of the toughest contests to figure out is the game of the week in New England, where the Bills are slight 1.5-point favorites against the red-hot Patriots in a massive divisional matchup. The books need the home team to pull it out.
“Bettors like the Bills as small road favorites against the Patriots in a massive AFC East showdown on Sunday,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. “The Broncos are also receiving support as home underdogs versus the Packers. There are eight games with spreads of 6 or more points in Week 15. A few underdogs covering or winning outright will break up parlays.”
BetMGM reported the highest handle is on Buffalo at 81%. The split is much closer to even at both DraftKings and theScore Bet. The Bills are the most-bet team by handle and tickets at BetMGM, and theScore Bet reported that the Patriots are getting the fifth-most money, followed by Buffalo at sixth.
| Week 15 Games | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet Splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills-Patriots (+1.5) | BUF 51% bets BUF 55% handle |
BUF 55% bets BUF 81% handle |
BUF 54% bets BUF 53% handle |
| Browns-Bears (-7.5) | CLE 50% bets CHI 58% handle |
CHI 57% bets CHI 53% handle |
CHI 50% bets CHI 71% handle |
| Jets-Jaguars (-13.5) | JAX 59% bets JAX 56% handle |
NYJ 55% bets NYJ 66% handle |
JAX 73% bets JAX 82% handle |
| Cardinals-Texans (-9.5) | HOU 64% bets HOU 75% handle |
HOU 63% bets HOU 68% handle |
HOU 72% bets HOU 51% handle |
| Raiders-Eagles (-11.5) | PHI 61% bets LV 64% handle |
PHI 67% bets PHI 57% handle |
PHI 71% bets PHI 89% handle |
| Ravens-Bengals (+2.5) | CIN 67% bets BAL 64% handle |
CIN 60% bets BAL 58% handle |
CIN 73% bets CIN 67% handle |
| Chargers-Chiefs (-5.5) | LAC 69% bets KC 86% handle |
LAC 66% bets LAC 52% handle |
LAC 75% bets LAC 67% handle |
| Giants-Commanders(+2.5) | NYG 66% bets NYG 72% handle |
NYG 75% bets NYG 88% handle |
NYG 61% bets NYG 72% handle |
| Colts-Seahawks (-13.5) | SEA 62% bets SEA 80% handle |
SEA 73% bets SEA 89% handle |
SEA 72% bets SEA 90% handle |
| Packers-Broncos (+2.5) | DEN 55% bets GB 52% handle |
DEN 68% bets DEN 77% handle |
DEN 61% bets DEN 52% handle |
| Titans-49ers (-12.5) | SF 71% bets SF 75% handle |
SF 82% bets SF 51% handle |
SF 84% bets SF 98% handle |
| Lions-Rams (-6) | DET 63% bets LAR 64% handle |
DET 51% bets LAR 68% handle |
DET 77% bets DET 60% handle |
| Panthers-Saints (+2.5) | CAR 80% bets CAR 82% handle |
CAR 75% bets CAR 69% handle |
CAR 75% bets CAR 58% handle |
| Vikings-Cowboys (-5.5) | DAL 76% bets DAL 87% handle |
DAL 69% bets DAL 67% handle |
DAL 68% bets DAL 69% handle |
| Dolphins-Steelers (-3) | PIT 64% bets PIT 66% handle |
MIA 51% bets MIA 61% handle |
MIA 51% bets MIA 66% handle |
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Heavy favorites
There are as many as four games with double-digit spreads, but of those, only one favorite is among the top five most-bet teams this week at BetMGM. The Seahawks (-13.5) have taken the third-highest ticket percentage and fourth-most handle so far this week ahead of their game against a Colts team that could be starting 44-year-old free-agent signing Phillip Rivers at quarterback.
The public isn’t banking on Indianapolis, which has lost three consecutive games, figuring it out again with Rivers or Riley Leonard, if healthy. Seattle is getting at least 80% of the money at the three sportsbooks and the vast majority of the bets. theScore Bet reported that the Seahawks are the second most-bet team by money this week.
The Eagles are also seeing a lot of action as 12.5-point favorites, ranking first among all teams by handle at theScore Bet for Sunday’s showdown in Las Vegas. Surprisingly, the Raiders are seeing the majority of the money at DraftKings, but Philadelphia is the leader at BetMGM and theScore Bet.
In another huge spread game, the 49ers are expectedly getting most of the money and bets as 12.5-point favorites against the Titans.
Close spreads
BetMGM customers are putting the most money on teams with much lower spreads. The Broncos at +2.5 against the road-favorite Packers are the second-most bet team by tickets and third by handle. Denver is getting 77% of the money at BetMGM, but DraftKings bettors are leaning toward Green Bay.
Bettors are all over the Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans this week, ranking second at BetMGM by handle and getting 69% of the money there. The Dolphins are fifth in handle as 3-point underdogs at Pittsburgh on Monday night. Miami is getting over 60% of the money at BetMGM and theScore Bet, but DraftKings has seen more tickets and more handle on the home team.
As 6-point underdogs against the Rams, the Lions are taking a lot of bets at all three sportsbooks. The Chargers (+5.5) are a popular team getting points against the Chiefs. Both are among the top three most-bet moneyline underdogs at BetMGM.
Totals, props
When it comes to totals, bettors are liking the under 39 in Browns-Bears, over 55 in Lions-Rams, and over 49.5 in Bills-Patriots.
The most popular player prop at BetMGM so far this week is Buffalo’s Ty Johnson to go under 1.5 receptions. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson (+250) is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer, while Packers running back Emanuel Wilson (+850) leads the first-touchdown scorer market at BetMGM.
Cleveland signal-caller Shedeur Sanders throwing over 0.5 touchdowns leads player props at theScore Bet, while Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs is the most-bet touchdown scorer.
