Wednesday & Thursday Plays

63-42 (+15.18u)

Wednesday:
ATL/PHO o160.5

Thursday:   
LA Conn o165 (1.5u)

What am I missing on Seattle being favored by -6 on the road vs Chicago? 6? Can LV win 4 games in a row or are the Fever going to bounce back? Thoughts?

Add:

PHO -6.5 (.55u)

"Can LV win 4 games in a row?"

We'll know after tomorrow night. If they do (or don't) here's some thoughts/stats for anyone who will be looking at the Aces on Friday. 

They'll be playing in game 2 of B2B's (back to back nights.) These were profitable on the Over last year at 17-6. But, as in all things in sports betting, trends eventually level out. This season the over is just 6-5.

But . . .

Their ATS record is 8-3.

Vegas is in the Rd/Rd subcategory (Hm/Hm, Hm/Rd, Rd/Hm, Rd/Rd.) There are two spots this season when both games were played on the road. ATS record is 1-1, both games went Over.

Those are league-based stats, covering all teams. I checked my charts to see if there is any team specific stats to factor in. This will be the second time Vegas has played B2B. The first was on 6/26, Hm/Hm, they won SU, lost ATS, and the game went over (by 14 points.)

Just a couple angles to look at for anyone 'capping Fridays games.

MR FREEDO WINNING RECORD KNOWN THAT YOU HAD A BAD DAY ATL IND OPPSITE OF BOTH

I LIKE PHOENIX AND THE OVER TODAY HAVE NOT PLACED MY BETS YET

@MrFreedo

 Yes

@Desertcapper

Vegas proved me wrong yesterday. Showed fight I haven’t seen all season in them. 

I like the way Phx matches up against ATL but we will see if Phx players are rusty from being off for a week (and getting 3 players back that haven’t played in a month). I’ve watched ATLs last 5 games and the eye test says this team is a mess in current form. They are still a good team and I personally wouldn’t play this at 7 or higher. Total has moved up a bit too.

bol today

Correction/addition. Above numbers were missing one game from my chart, Min on 7/10. They won ATS and the game went Over.

Correct record on teams in game 2 of B2B is:

9-3 ATS, 7-5 on the Over.

And, just a heads up . . Atlanta played last night, playing tonight at Phoenix. (They were in this B2B spot once this season, they played at home two nights in a row, game on 5/25, they won ATS and the game went Under.

@VeritasAlways

Thanks just started looking at this game. Didn’t realize it was a B2B vs Lynx. I missed the ML at open and don’t trust Vegas laying 4+ on the road (at least yet). Vegas defense impressed me vs Dream. A couple things that stood out to me so far. I need to look things over more though. 

Fever Opp TT has went over 8-2 L10 games

Fever L10 games TT over 7-3

Aces L10 last in fast break points 

Aces L10 on the road TT 3-7 to the under

Aces as fav -2.5 to -7 (1-5)

It's a shame I only got one achievement yesterday.
What do you think about today?

Sabally, Satou - Assists Over 2.5
Gray, Allisha - Three-pointers Made Over 1.5
Canada, Jordin - Rebounds Under 4.5

@VeritasAlways

Nice stat. I have system plays on teams with less rest and have been cashing all season on it. It actually says to fade Phx tonight which your data supports. 

I’m fading my own system play. What could go wrong? 

@luisparada

I don’t do much props. I will rooting for Sabally though. 

good luck

You're welcome. Hope you find them helpful.

'Capping is like a chess board, it's good to look at it from every angle, so I thought someone might want to know some more stats to factor in.

Tonight's game will add a little more to my thoughts for tomorrow's Ace's game because Atlanta's in the same spot as Vegas will be in tomorrow night, B2B with both games on the Rd. I gave the overall numbers above, here's some stats on when the second game is a Rd game.

Team playing in game 2 of B2B on the Rd:

ATS 5-1, Ov 5-1

(If anyone wants to double check my math - when you do a lot of number crunching it's easy to make a mistake, it's always good to have backup - here are the qualifying games on my database: New York on 5/30, Phoenix on 6/19, Chicago on 6/22, Indiana on 6/27, Indiana on 7/16, and Minnesota on 7/10.)

NY on 5/30 is the only one that stayed Under the total and Indiana on 7/16 is the only spot that lost ATS.

Side note - the one that lost ATS was Indiana without Clark. More to the point it was their first game after Clark went on the injured list again. She's been injured three times this season, and the Fever lost all three of the following games - so much for the "Next Man Up" theory that says bet ON a team after they lose their star player. Ind is 0-3 in that spot, worth noting for their first game without her after her next injury.

I took A. Gray Ov 16' pts, -117 tonight. I think the books shaved a point offer season average because she played last night. But last time she was in a game 2 of B2B's she played 33 minutes so I'm not worried about her getting any bench rest tonight after playing last night. And she scored 18 in that one, her season average.

Good luck on whatever you go with tonight, and tomorrow.

@VeritasAlways

Good insight. 

“Team playing in game 2 of B2B on the Rd: ATS 5-1, Ov 5-1”

From betting NBA I always think B2B, tired legs, and overs. 

I did see a query for the Aces game when they hold the opponent last game to 80 points or less this season they are 0-8 ats and 5-3 to the over. That 0-8 I cannot get out of my brain. 

1-1 (+.45u)

small gain

Lean Sea/Chi under. If I can get IND +4 (missed it) I’ll play it.