Who would have ever thought?

That Roger Federer is only -500 against Ernests Gulbis? That to me is stealing money and is an easy 20% when added to parlays.

I like it too, just a little gunshy to pull the trigger on it. The price makes me worry. To me Gulbis doesn't have the experience to hang with Fedex. But he did take a set against in their previous match and that was on hardcourts where Roger is much more at home. Good luck but I think Wawrinka is the better safer and cheaper play.

Federer lost to Andrea Gaudenzi, Felix Mantilla, Albert Costa, Filippo Volandri and Radek Stepanek in his glorious Internazionali d'Italia career... This is because he is dining out at Taverna Trilussa every night and his ability on a Roman clay court is parallel to his inability to stay away from the Roman buffet table...

Outside of the slams Federer is NEVER free money.

Sure he is better than Gulbis but Gulbis took a set off him on hard court earlier in the year and here he is on his favorite surface.

Price is short on Gulbis as well for me to back him, I would consider only above +450, stay away IMO.

Got a half unit play on Gulbis myself. He has improved so much this year and seems very hungry in general. I was impressed with his patience in his last match, looks like clay is causing him to think a bit more than usual which can only help his game.

So I thought he looked amazing yesterday, this is Fed's first clay match this year, Gulbis should have won their last match, and most of all I have serious questions about Roger's motivation coming into an event where everyone expects him to get not just beat but thrashed in the semis by Nadal, the -250 fave to win the entire thing.

I hate Gulbis as a fave and usually as a short dog (vs Karlovic was an exception) but almost always like him at monster dog odds. I actually learned about him during that match he took Fed to the limit this year (parlayed Fed with my monster Davydenko bet liked a damned fool)  and have been watching him ever since. If FedError shows up like he did vs Bahgdatis and for the bulk of the match vs Berdych then Gulbis will have his chance.

I also think Gulbis will be very hungry for this. He will probably choke if he gets close to the finish line but I do not expect a blowout. The worst scenario I see is Rog in straights with each won by a single break. Just IMO but we will see. (I think Almagro at similar odds would be a better parlay pick, but no way am I trying to juice plays up at this tournament, feels like some extremely scandalous stuff has already gone down)

Federer struggles normally with retrievers...not servers. The types of players that have given Federer troubles... Nadal-Murray-Volandri-Canas are all types of players that make Fed hit 1 more shot. And he then gets frustrated and then hits the error. Federer rarely struggles with big servers...normally guys can't be consistent enough to win matches against him...just an occasional set.

Yes this is Roger's 1st match back but I suspect he has been practicing alot on clay the past few weeks. He will want to win this match as he skipped the 1st 2 clay court tourneys and will need some court and match time before Roland Garros.

First set will be crucial for both players... in my opinion Gulbis needs to win the 1st set...if he loses that I think he would be hard-pressed to win 2 straight. So if your leaning Gulbis...take the 1st set

Looks good for Fed backers spread and ML so far...

Fed has struggled vs the power game before, like his last two matches vs Del Potro and his last match against Gulbis. It is possible but very rare and they have to be close to redlining to beat him.

Betting against Fed is the stupidest bet in Tennis. He loses, but I sure wouldn't bet on it. Too many other matches. When I see Fed's name, I pass it. It's like it's not even there for me unless it's a GS.

Gulbis showed good fight that game. At least he isn't giving up after losing the first set, I would at least like to see him get to the breaker here, would be content with the burned half unit if he could do that. Make Roger backers piss their pants a little.

Gulbis goes up a break in the second! Gulbis backers can officially stop feeling stupid now.

Not at the odds being offered. I did not bet Baghdatis in time and hate myself for it but right after cashing that +700-900ish dog he cashes Berdych the next tournament. That was one of my best hits of the year and the signs were there. He cashed Benneteau in the same range as Bahgdatis late last year and Wawrinka in the clay season at +800 or so as well, Tsonga +500ish last year after getting up a monster lead in the third and choking....

Outside of slams he is one of the best fades on tour over the last year. Numbers do not lie. Betting on him would be the crazy thing, not fading him. I agree with sims that if you pick your spots fading him is a good move.

Betting against Nadal on clay... that might be the dumbest bet in tennis. That guy seems like he dominates completely. 81 in a row! Wow. Makes me sad I only started watching hard last year. I did not properly appreciate his dominance on this surface but I am sure starting to.

ok at this point Gulbis was a good pick ftw. they were monster odds, respect it or dont.

mmmm...

I guess you are not aware that if you bet against Federer on each Masters event since 2007 you would be up HUGE

Just think that he participated at 29 Masters 1000 Events and he won only 3 of them... And what are the odds on Federer's matches?!

2-6 6-1 Gulbis! Did not think he would win a set like that but I will take it. I always feel like anything over +200 that goes the distance was the right side value wise unless completely blown out in the third. With a pick this big that goes three I think it was the right move no matter what happens in the third. Just how I view dog bets, perspectives may vary.

i just realized that my federer parlay already lost with de Bakker.

got a small wager on gulbis liked his odds like how he played yesterday hope he can win the 3rd set go  gulbis 

You posted right before me in this thread. Man I was really hoping you would be on board with this one, but I knew there was no use trying to talk you into it. You seemed pretty close to pulling the trigger or at least considering it. I wish it was +450/+500 too but hopefully being less precise in my line desires pays off for me here. Nice to see ya bud.

Am surprised that Gulbis has been this mentally tough...my perspective was surely wrong thus far

gl man me too. one of the coolest things in tennis and how it differs from most other sports is that you can watch a guy one day and bet on him the next, even if what you are watching him do that day is kick your pick's ass.

Work killled me for the last month.
Now I have more free time fortunately coinciding with Roland Garros so hopefully I can make some extra cash

He is definitely a new man this year compared to 2009. The match vs Fed is actually the last time I remember seeing him choke, other than the second set vs Nando last week. (as someone who had cash on Nando I still think he would have lost the third but he should have won the second) Been watching him since the Fed match and am very impressed. He will still probably choke at the end of this set, though. Berdych had to win it, I think Gulbis will too.

He is showing maturity...thats a good sign for him going forward

Still think Roger steals this match