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Busted, How about this one?

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Alright guys, I know I sounded supremely confident about my last one, and it fizzled, but I appreciate you guys getting on me actually, it makes me look harder for something that actually works.

How about this for an idea, I am going to do some research on it right now...

This is for NCAA Hoops...

If a team underperforms the Vegas Line by 20 points or more (which is about 2 standard deviations) then you tail them if they have a line in their next game. If a team overperforms a line by 20 points then the opposite (you fade them if they have a line the next game). If there happens to be a play on both teams in a game that oppose each other, then that game is just neutral, throw it out the window?

What do you guys think? Essentially it would be for letdowns really. The BC game against Harvard is my main example, where the play would be on Harvard. But obviously that is only one game so I am going back to test as many as possible.

Thoughts? 
 
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Posted: #2
When you under or over performed with 2 standard deviations, what standard deviation do you mean . The deviation of what mean?
The mean of spreads for all games for the NCAAB or the mean difference for that team (point for - points against)?
 
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Posted: #3
When you say a team that has under or over performed with 2 standard deviations, what standard deviation do you mean
?  The deviation of what mean / average?
The average spread for all games for the NCAAB or the average difference / game for that team (point for - points against)?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
I mean that Vegas usually predicts a a game outcome with a standard deviation of about 10 points. So about 95% of the time a game should fall in a 40 point range.

The normal distributions says that about 95% of all random events will fall between two standard deviations of the mean. (The mean being Vegas's line)

So for example. Florida plays Kentucky and the line is pick. We can expect that 95% of the time they play neither team wins by more than 20 points. But 5% one team or the other should win by about 20 or more.
 
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Posted: #5
Is the distribution symetric / normal?
I think we should first test if the distribution of spreads is a normal one and only after that to make judgements based on the normal distribution properties...
Where did you get the 10 points std. dev.?
Did you compute it based on the spreads of all games? Or did you compute the average of spreads set by Vegas for all games played so far this season and found its standard deviation is 10 points?
You made a good point about predictions based on the variance and normal distribution properties but shouldn't we test first the distribution?
 
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Posted: #6
We should use the std. dev. as a measure of variance only after we know for sure that the distribution is symetric.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Yeah we should test to make sure it's normal, but I am pretty damn sure it would be. I tested all the games last year and it fit the parameters for being normal. I tested them in MiniTab. And 10 is just a rough estimate. I think it is actually something closer to 10.5, but you can't really get a true number on this as it is always changing, but 10.45 was what it was last year for the entire season. Numbers courtesy to the Prediction Tracker
 
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Posted: #8
You are absolutely wright about the normal distribution, the +/- 1.96 covers 95% of the variance, but I don't understand what's the relation between the fact that a team falls outside the 95% interval of the variance of spreads set by Vegas and the performance of that team. Shouldn't we check the team in relation to the distribution of its own variance of the difference of points / game?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
I do understand what your saying calinreddog, but I think that if you do it that way, it's too hard to account for the opposition's strength.

Say you have a lowly team like Fordham or something. They go and play Duke, NC, UCLA, Pitt in the beginning of the season or something. They lose by like almost 30 each time. Then their next game is against Princeton say. They win by 1 or something. That would indicate that they played much better than what they had been, but really it could have been just as bad. I think using Vegas's lines are a much better indicator
 
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Posted: #10
Team A plays at team B and Vegas sets the spread at -15.5. The team B wins by a difference of 43 points (hypothetically speaking). So both team A and team B both were outside the 95% interval covered by 2 std. dev.
Next day team A plays at team C wich is a weaker team than team B and the Vegas sets the spread at only -3.5 for the the home team (C). You say that we should now play team A to cover the difference of +3.5 because they stepped once out of the 95% range and now they should fall back in (that's between -21 and +21). But if team C beats them by 9 point difference, team A falls in the normal interval but they lost and we lost too...
Or did I get it wrong?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
You understand it correctly. Your example might be farfetched considering the first line was -15.5, and then team C was worse than team B, and the line was only -3.5. 

Yes in that instance though the play would be for team A to cover in their next game (against C) and to fade team B in their next game (if it has a line). 

In your example, it would be a loss yes. And then there wouldn't be a play on the next game for either A or C. 

So far I have got through the ACC and halfway through the A-10 and it has been 12-8 so far. So....
 
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Posted: #12
So I get it wright, the example was hypothetically, but the idea was that we should play team A to cover their next game and team B to lose ATS their next game.
Interesting, but I'm afraid that 12 + 8 are not enough data to draw a conclusion.
Good luck though and keep posting!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Yes I'm glad you got it. Oh I know that 12-8 isn't enough data to draw anything. Hopefully I can get through as many teams possible today, and hopefully I have a 100+ games or 200+ games. That would be a tad bit more reliable. 
 
 
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Posted: #14
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