However on further research there are a few questions I have about how straight forward this will be.
Personally one of the reasons I had written off Inter's challenge was based on how inferior I believe Serie A is as a league compared with La Liga and the Premier League, but also how soft their run to the final has been.
Using UEFA's club coefficient rankings they rank Inter's rd 16, qtr and semi final opponents as follows:
That's an enormous difference in quality. You could however argue that Bayern's coefficient doesn't accurately reflect how poor they have been this season.
But stats aside, the eye test alone showed us how poor Inter's opponents have been. In the round of 16 2nd leg matchup away to Porto, Porto created numerous chances against this Inter team that in the end were hanging on to their 1-0 advantage by their finger nails. Fast forward to their semi final matchup with AC Milan and they absolutely romped that 1st leg and could have won 4-0/5-0 on the night. AC Milan were without their most dangerous player in Leao, but the giant bus sized gaps that AC Milan were giving Inter's players to run through and score were shocking for a semi final team. I'd go as far as arguing AC Milan were the worst semi final opponent I've ever seen in the Champions League.
This all seems like a pretty strong argument to take Man City, right?
Let's consider the things we know for certain in this game. Inzaghi is no tactical genius, nor is he likely to surprise us with his approach to this game as there's really no reason to. He will stick to the script and the Italian way, playing a modern version of 'Catennaccio' football. After all, historically there is a strong precedent for winning cup competitions playing this way, both for Inter and many underdogs in general.
With this in mind we can assume that City will have most of the ball, but how has Inter faired this season in that situation? Looking at possession stats Inter have played 8 games where they have had 40% or less possession resulting in 3 wins / 3 draws / 2 losses. In those 8 games they scored 12 goals and conceded 11 goals. So 75% of the time they won or drew the game in 90 minutes.
However on further research there are a few questions I have about how straight forward this will be.
Personally one of the reasons I had written off Inter's challenge was based on how inferior I believe Serie A is as a league compared with La Liga and the Premier League, but also how soft their run to the final has been.
Using UEFA's club coefficient rankings they rank Inter's rd 16, qtr and semi final opponents as follows:
That's an enormous difference in quality. You could however argue that Bayern's coefficient doesn't accurately reflect how poor they have been this season.
But stats aside, the eye test alone showed us how poor Inter's opponents have been. In the round of 16 2nd leg matchup away to Porto, Porto created numerous chances against this Inter team that in the end were hanging on to their 1-0 advantage by their finger nails. Fast forward to their semi final matchup with AC Milan and they absolutely romped that 1st leg and could have won 4-0/5-0 on the night. AC Milan were without their most dangerous player in Leao, but the giant bus sized gaps that AC Milan were giving Inter's players to run through and score were shocking for a semi final team. I'd go as far as arguing AC Milan were the worst semi final opponent I've ever seen in the Champions League.
This all seems like a pretty strong argument to take Man City, right?
Let's consider the things we know for certain in this game. Inzaghi is no tactical genius, nor is he likely to surprise us with his approach to this game as there's really no reason to. He will stick to the script and the Italian way, playing a modern version of 'Catennaccio' football. After all, historically there is a strong precedent for winning cup competitions playing this way, both for Inter and many underdogs in general.
With this in mind we can assume that City will have most of the ball, but how has Inter faired this season in that situation? Looking at possession stats Inter have played 8 games where they have had 40% or less possession resulting in 3 wins / 3 draws / 2 losses. In those 8 games they scored 12 goals and conceded 11 goals. So 75% of the time they won or drew the game in 90 minutes.
But let's get to the heart of what concerns me about City's chances of lifting the trophy in 90 minutes. In their last 5 away games in this competition they have drawn all 5 games with scores of 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0. You can't argue that City were without a goalscorer either, because Haaland started in 4 of 5 of those games. For a side that is this dominant and this heavily favoured it's concerning to me that they have developed a habit of only winning games at home and managing games away. It begs the question, does City need conditions to be favourable in order for them to win? Certainly anyone who has watched them this season will note that Haaland finds it much harder to score and find space when the opponent denies City space, which is exactly what Inter's main objective in this game will be.
We can extrapolate this out further by considering how City performed in away games against the top 10 Premier League sides. They recorded results of just 2W-3D-4L. Scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. It's interesting to note that of the 2 games they won away their opponents were Fulham who rank the lowest of those 9 opponents and Arsenal who play a style that is probably the least defensive of all those teams.
This is where I start looking at that 1.25 ball handicap and doubt whether City can over come that in 90 minutes knowing the way Inter will setup.
But let's get to the heart of what concerns me about City's chances of lifting the trophy in 90 minutes. In their last 5 away games in this competition they have drawn all 5 games with scores of 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0. You can't argue that City were without a goalscorer either, because Haaland started in 4 of 5 of those games. For a side that is this dominant and this heavily favoured it's concerning to me that they have developed a habit of only winning games at home and managing games away. It begs the question, does City need conditions to be favourable in order for them to win? Certainly anyone who has watched them this season will note that Haaland finds it much harder to score and find space when the opponent denies City space, which is exactly what Inter's main objective in this game will be.
We can extrapolate this out further by considering how City performed in away games against the top 10 Premier League sides. They recorded results of just 2W-3D-4L. Scoring 11 goals and conceding 12. It's interesting to note that of the 2 games they won away their opponents were Fulham who rank the lowest of those 9 opponents and Arsenal who play a style that is probably the least defensive of all those teams.
This is where I start looking at that 1.25 ball handicap and doubt whether City can over come that in 90 minutes knowing the way Inter will setup.
As a side note, a crazy thought that occurred to me looking through Inter's results in the Champions League this season is that they drawn 3-3 twice against opponents who have had 60%+ possession. Anyone recall what happened last time a team from England played a team from Milan at the Ataturk Stadium in the Champions League final??? Nah surely not. But I'll definitely be putting a coin or 2 on it just in case.
I'm keen to here other people's thoughts on why they think Inter can win this or perhaps reason why they can confidently refute some of my concerns about City's chances.
As a side note, a crazy thought that occurred to me looking through Inter's results in the Champions League this season is that they drawn 3-3 twice against opponents who have had 60%+ possession. Anyone recall what happened last time a team from England played a team from Milan at the Ataturk Stadium in the Champions League final??? Nah surely not. But I'll definitely be putting a coin or 2 on it just in case.
I'm keen to here other people's thoughts on why they think Inter can win this or perhaps reason why they can confidently refute some of my concerns about City's chances.
I guess the obvious negative for Man City which I didn't really touch on was the psychological baggage they take into this game from all their past failings in this competition. Pep seems confident they shrug it off every year, but when it keeps happening repeatedly it does raise questions.
I guess the obvious negative for Man City which I didn't really touch on was the psychological baggage they take into this game from all their past failings in this competition. Pep seems confident they shrug it off every year, but when it keeps happening repeatedly it does raise questions.
Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it.
my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen.
I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here.
Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it.
my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen.
I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here.
Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it. my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen. I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here.
I've always felt this game could produce a few goals and 0-0 was an unlikely scoreline. I think in that scenario Haaland is scoring. My biggest concern with City and was with the -1.25 handicap is when they have control even with just a 1 goal lead in a game and the final whistle approaches they can play keepings and not go for more goals. It's one of the most infuriating things about them as a team from a punting perspective and has to be factored into this game.
Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it. my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen. I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here.
I've always felt this game could produce a few goals and 0-0 was an unlikely scoreline. I think in that scenario Haaland is scoring. My biggest concern with City and was with the -1.25 handicap is when they have control even with just a 1 goal lead in a game and the final whistle approaches they can play keepings and not go for more goals. It's one of the most infuriating things about them as a team from a punting perspective and has to be factored into this game.
Quote Originally Posted by Beanerweaner: Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it. my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen. I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here. I've always felt this game could produce a few goals and 0-0 was an unlikely scoreline. I think in that scenario Haaland is scoring. My biggest concern with City and was with the -1.25 handicap is when they have control even with just a 1 goal lead in a game and the final whistle approaches they can play keepings and not go for more goals. It's one of the most infuriating things about them as a team from a punting perspective and has to be factored into this game.
yes, definitely.
ivr got $575 on haaland anytime and city win +115. Might see something live. Maybe play brozovic or barella to be carded @+ money
typically these games are best to go light, like blowing your load on a Super Bowl. Everything is super sharp, books never lose their shirt in these games.
Quote Originally Posted by Beanerweaner: Nice write up. I respect the +1.25 but won’t play it. my lean so far is haaland anytime and city win. I don’t see how haaland is denied here. I just don’t. Whether it’s a 1-1 score line @ 90mins is to be seen. I jus think this game as a whole lines up drastically different than years past. Throw all the other shit from previous years out the window here. I've always felt this game could produce a few goals and 0-0 was an unlikely scoreline. I think in that scenario Haaland is scoring. My biggest concern with City and was with the -1.25 handicap is when they have control even with just a 1 goal lead in a game and the final whistle approaches they can play keepings and not go for more goals. It's one of the most infuriating things about them as a team from a punting perspective and has to be factored into this game.
yes, definitely.
ivr got $575 on haaland anytime and city win +115. Might see something live. Maybe play brozovic or barella to be carded @+ money
typically these games are best to go light, like blowing your load on a Super Bowl. Everything is super sharp, books never lose their shirt in these games.
@matt-e-matticle Excellent write-up!!! Thanks for sharing your insight. I can tell you really follow futbol. This game smells like 1-1 and Man City wins in extra time 2-1 or 3-1.
Thanks mate!
So far seems to be going exactly as highlighted above. City just aren't the same team away from the Ettihad.
@matt-e-matticle Excellent write-up!!! Thanks for sharing your insight. I can tell you really follow futbol. This game smells like 1-1 and Man City wins in extra time 2-1 or 3-1.
Thanks mate!
So far seems to be going exactly as highlighted above. City just aren't the same team away from the Ettihad.
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