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Quote Originally Posted by Detroit84: No offense, but a typical covers response...Like my wager is going to throw off your bet...give me a break. If that is truly how you think then you need to get out of this business.great..and i just put in my wager on the bears. Now the bears win by 1 or 2. Bears cover this spread no matter...I'll let you hedge your bet if you would like to take the Lions...Let me know
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TheGameChanger | 29 |
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Largest wager of my life so far...A real mismatch in this game through and through...
Chicago Bears -3
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TheGameChanger | 29 |
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1-0 NBA Record
70% + Goal 100% - Current Record Boston Celtics +2.5
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TheGameChanger | 1 |
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0-0 NBA Record
70% + Goal Denver Nuggets +4
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TheGameChanger | 3 |
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Not personally playing it because I limit myself to 5 games, but I like Dallas tonight. They were in my top 8 plays for the week. The points are nice, but SU is where I would place my money. GL to those playing the game tonight...I will just be a spectator. We will see you guys all next week!
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Denver -3.5 (Win) Baltimore -3.5 (Win) Chicago -3.5 (Win) Minnesota +4.5 (Loss) Pittsburgh +3.5 (Win)
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f: Listen, you are entitled to your own opinion, and beliefs, but I have been betting the NFL for years and over the past 3 years I have wagered on 5 games each week. When you pay to play in the Hilton Supercontest and you need to pick 5 sides, there might be a reason for it. Just do what you need to do, and I will do what I do. Don't worry about me...I'm doing just fine, and have been for years.
You're playing to many games. That's the number one misstake guys make in gambling and you're doing it too. Just play denver/baltimore, after you win, STOP for the day and be postive |
TheGameChanger | 50 |
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I love the nonsense of people trying to figure out what side people are betting on too????? 77% this side....69% that side....bullshit numbers.
No one in this forum knows the most important factor anyways...which is where the money is going.
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BrownGem: Whats your point???Cinn D is not = to saints D Cinn O is not = to Saints O ?????????
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BrownGem: I strongly and respectfully could care less about trends. Trends date back years and years ago if you are looking at teams trends...which means they were a completely different roster, playing a completely different roster, with so many other variables in play that are completely different then the current game. whats that stat this year of teams before the bye dont do very well? With that being said, the same applies to what you are talking about here..."what is the stat this year of teams before the bye that don't do very well?" Why is that relevant in this game? It might be 10-0...but please tell me how that effects or should effect the Broncos today...I understand they have a bye week after this. But again, this is a different team, with a different matchup then all of the other games previous in that situation. If you are only placing wagers based on trends and stats, then you are going to be .500 when it is all said and done. GL
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Quote Originally Posted by kenjig5: I believe the game is right where it should be...I don't think I am getting much value on either side. With that said I am not sure Miami should be a road favorite. No play for me
What you guys think about the COLTS and MIA? |
TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Final Card:
Denver -3.5 Baltimore -3.5 Chicago -3.5 Minnesota +4.5 Pittsburgh +3.5
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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Thanks guys...Denver up to -4 (-112, and -115).
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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If you desperately need a winner and are okay tailing someone blindly...here it is...
Denver Broncos -3.5
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TheGameChanger | 50 |
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17-8 YTD (68%)
Week 6 Plays: New York Jets -3 Detroit Lions +3.5 San Francisco -7 Houston -3.5 Denver Broncos -1 |
TheGameChanger | 2 |
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txtech - I have made a little more than 8 times my money over 10 years even if I lose tonight. If I win, I continue to bet, plus I get my wife a nice car around $30,000. I have gotten my wife gifts before with my winnings. I have updated our entire kitchen, added a hot tub and a sauna to our home. If I win, I add a car to that list. If I lose, I just find time to do other things...instead of looking into games and wagers each day. I really think it is a win-win situation for me. Yes, I am still losing if I lose tonight...I understand that...but I am just at a crossroads in my betting life I guess. I don't really need it, like I use to.
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TheGameChanger | 83 |
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Writeup
Let me first start off by saying this...Yes, I am betting my entire sports betting bankroll on this game tonight. I have placed about $10,000 in my accounts over the course of about 10 years. I have cashed out somewhere around $85,000 during those 10 years. I am not going to share how much money I actually have on this game tonight, because it is irrelevant and I don't want it to skew anyone...i.e. ~ I can bet more on this game because he must really be serious...NO...bet what you feel comfortable betting.
I feel comfortable with this bet because I honestly am up no matter what happens. If I lose, I will just stop betting and focus more of time elsewhere. I have had a good run of this...it is just very time consuming, and I make a decent enough amount of money with my real job, that I don't really need to invest this much time to bring in this side money. If it wins, great...my wife gets a new car, and I will continue with the remaining balance during football (which I dominate at).
What if I told you the Marlins are have scored less runs this year (453) then the lowly Astros (456). The Marlins have been shutout 3 times in their last 8 games. Joe Saunders has already shut down the Marlins this year with his only complete game all year. By the way, he only allowed 3 hits in that game (5-0 D-Backs Win). Joe Saunders has struggled at home (4.72 ERA) Mark Buerhle is no better on the road (4.81 ERA) Buerhle has also logged twice as many innings this year during evening games, but his ERA is two points higher during those outings. His ERA has climbed each month he has pitched in the NL this year. Some would wonder if that doesnt mean the NL is starting to understand how to attack him when he is pitching. Maybe he is just getting a dead arm? Old? IDK...but his numbers are getting worse by the start. He gave up 7 runs on 8 hits in only 5 innings in his only start this year against the D-Backs.
Back to Saunders...I am going to give Vegas a ton of credit here folks...they know everything. Did you guys know that Saunders injured his throwing thumb on Wed? You wouldnt think that would be of any help when pitching tonight would you? I didnt think so...it actually makes me think he could struggle if anything. Saunders has also seen his ERA by month climb, with the exception of a very high ERA in the month of May. IMO, a lot more information in this game indicates a pretty easy trigger on the Over in this game. Starting number of 9.5 bet down to 9 (and even) indicates that there is some very sharp money on this game. I can't tell you for certain which SP is going to dominate tonight, but one of these pitchers is going to do just that. I expect at least a 3-4 runs difference at the end of this game between the two teams, just dont know which way....and could care less which way. I just really think this puppy is going under the total with some of the easiest information to everyone indicating an easy and obvious play on the Over. I am not biting. |
TheGameChanger | 83 |
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shawty321 - Don't expect the writeup to soon. I have yoga to attend yet...won't be for a few hours for sure. Thanks.
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TheGameChanger | 83 |
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Silly - I totally agree with all of what you said...and wrote...I appreciate the time you put into that. I saw all of that as well...I also saw the home/away splits for both starters that would indicate this easily goes over 9 runs. I also saw the day/night splits for these pitchers, both of which would also indicate the over 9 runs is the easy play....couple all of the stats, numbers, splits, lineups, etc. and you see that Over 9 is clearly the correct play...but yet this line has moved down from 9.5 to 9. I totally would love to jump on the over to after looking at nothing but support for the over, but the line moving the other way I know for a fact that I am playing this on the right side. Trust me...this play is solid.
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TheGameChanger | 83 |
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txtech - I have had money in my online accounts for years before we have ever been married. I have never added money to those accounts...cashed out some portions of winnings before. If I lose, I lose. She is not going to know the difference.
Denson - I know all too well about the D-Backs crushing lefties...I have spent a lot of time on this game. There are actually a ton more trends, stats, etc. that would indicate the Over 9 runs is the correct play here...but I am not buying it one bit. Good luck! |
TheGameChanger | 83 |
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