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Will always win out each week. Seattle is the better team but this is a great spot for sd and sd is used to playing good teams tight. Vegas set the line at 5-6 because they know the general public will lay the points thinking 'seattle just needs to win by a td, they killed GB last week, that is nothing'.
If you want to make some money bet against the public money and their money is all over seattle today.
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chihawks1 | 23 |
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This might not be the best bet but it's a great one. My question is if any of these doubters are hawks homers and are confusing betting with their heart over their head. Last year seattle went 6-2 on the road, the games they won were at carolina by 5, Houston by 3, Arizona by 12, St. Louis by 5, Atlanta by 23, new York giants by 23. They lost at San Francisco by 2 and at indy by 6. Atlanta and nyg were terrible last year and had no chance. Look at the other games and seattle would be 1-5 against a -5.5 line.
Seattle has a huge advantage at home, just like new orleans and cincy do but they do not crush good teams on the road. They win tight games against good teams on the road. Let's not forget that the team that sd lost to last week is the same team that beat seattle at home last year. sd also beat denver in denver last year. I know what you will say, denver got crushed by seattle in superbowl. Maybe so but the stage of the superbowl is very different to a normal game and the routine behind it as well for teams. Seattle has denver @ home next week as well. They will aim to escape this game against sd with a win but not a blowout. They will look ahead and past sd and aim to embarrass denver again. Sure sd is coming off a short week and seattle has had 10 days to prepare but sd is a scrappy team and seattle is not very good at stopping the run. Sd does not have one single star player who must have a great game for them to win. Rivers spreads it around and is not reliant on one or two guys in order to win. They will run the ball and chew clock and the home crowd will help disrupt seattle. It is also important to know that home teams are usually given -2.5 points for home filed advantage. Seattle being favoured by 5-6 points is really a 7.5-8.5 slap in the face to sd. That will add motivation. The best part about week one is everyone's overreaction to the results and believing that teal talent
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chihawks1 | 23 |
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I have to agree with the weather and humidity. I think it will play a large role in the WC this year and probably contributes to the stat about a Euro team never having won in a South American WC. I can understand Spain and Portugal dealing with the heat but the humidity will be another issue.
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sharpstick | 6 |
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Not so much an argument but Russia tends to come out of the blocks hot and progressively get worse. They missed out on qualifying from their group in Euro 2012 by a hair. They scored a bunch of goals in the first game and then down hill from there.
The one thing that Russia has going for them is that most of their WC team has played together a lot as many of their players play in Russia together and that gives them great team chemistry straight away usually. I recall some stat about most of their starting lineup playing for 2 teams in Russia in Euro 2012. I am unsure if they have a difference maker as well. Also, if Russia plays so well out of the blocks but tends to die down in game 2 and 3 of group stage is that because they simply had a lucky game 1 or is that because the teams play them smarter after the first team gets beat up? I think it is the latter and since Russia does not have any really special players they could get caught again. South Korea tends to play quite well and overachieves in WC from my recent memory. They could pull off a win over Algeria and two draws. I would have to side with Belgium to win this group, the only thing worrying me is their last three games were not great. They have a lot of talent though and that is a cheap price.
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sharpstick | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Fademeuwin: 77% of the betting tix r on Sf . From Sports book / scoresanodds.com Excellent stat!! Cheers for that. I have a future bet on SF to win super bowl, thinking I might just ride that ticket instead of laying more $ on this game. If 77% of tickets are on SF this is basically an automatic fade for me. Laying off might be best though as once you start second guessing yourself based on your lean it usually ends bad. Might look to the under or to Kapaernick to rush for over 38.5 yards.
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mullinsky | 15 |
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Quote Originally Posted by woodsy5822: Can't trust a guy that cant spell offense or defense lol.. Good luck Totally agree!! I will stick to O and D from now on :P
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mullinsky | 15 |
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Reasoning:
Offence - Davis is not concussed an Crabtree has shown how valuable he is to this team. Neither had to be accounted for in first game. Also, the odds of Kaepernick having his worst pro game ever again is really low. Defence - Carolina is statistically the better defines and their front 4 will cause havoc possibly but SF D is excellent and they matchup too well with CAR O to give a full point. Carolina is weak in its secondary and with Davis and Crabtree back they will be tested. Special Teams - SF statistically has better special teams and it is 1/3 of the game as they say Kicker - Phil Dawson and Graham Gano have been money this season but Vet gets the advantage. Coach - Harbaugh has more experience and is a much better game planer that Rivera. he is also better at making adjustments at half-time or in game. Injuries - Steve Smith is hurt and he is the only person SF has to worry about. He still manages to come up huge when needed and Newton looks to him on 3rd down. Losing that completely or not having him at 100 % will be BIG!! Experience - SF been here before Penalties - SF gets more penalties and they will kill drives and there could be some big penalties for the home team from crowd noise or favourable calls. Hot Team - Both teams are hot but Carolina off a buy is 0-3 under Rivera. I think the worst thing that could have happened was Carolina getting a buy. SF is hot now and as been in playoff mode for 2 weeks. Home Field Advantage - Carolina 7-1 at home and only lost to Seattle in week 1. Home Dog - Puts Carolina in s good spot. Road teams have been winning in playoffs but home dogs like Carolina have a whole lot of bite! Public Betting - 60% on SF - 70% to me is a automatic fade or no play. Fading the public and taking home dogs only get 1 point each but those are two of my biggest betting 'NO NO's'. I don't like being on the public side and I do not like betting against home teams in BIG games! But I am going against my better judgement because I think the SF is simply playing better right now and well oiled. They have the right kind of team makeup for playoff football and i simply cannot see how Kapaernick does not play better than last time himself but also because of having Davis and Crabtree! SF ML |
mullinsky | 15 |
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What a pain!! Had to retype it all.
Offence - SF + 1 - Defence - CAR + 0.5 Special Teams - SF + 1 Kicker - SF + 0.5 Coaching - SF + 1 Injuries - SF + 1 Experience - SF + 1 Penalties - CAR + 1 Hot Team - SF + 0.5 Home Field Advantage - CAR + 1 Home Underdog - CAR + 1 Public Betting - CAR + 1 Total os SF 6 - CAR 4.5 A half point was given to defence, kicker and hot team as they are simply not as one-sided. Some of the areas above are specific to matchup but other are specific to betting rules I have when deciding on games (such as home underdogs being a fav of mine). |
mullinsky | 15 |
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Awesome breakdown, stupid excel cut and paste!
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mullinsky | 15 |
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mullinsky | 15 |
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Not sure this is a huge thing. Chargers have played with banged up O-line all year and Denver D cannot take advantage of that because they have no pass rush. Denver D is really bad and Rivers will pick them apart, especially on 3rd down.
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Bet_The_House | 12 |
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replied to
TAKING NEW ORLEANS IN A BLOWOUT!!!!!! ITS A LOCK RUN TO YOUR LOCAL AND DROP EVERY LAST PENNY U GOT!
in Penalty Box
Betting on road favs is a sure way to lose your bankroll
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SukMyVickNoRomo | 35 |
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Carolina tends to blowout bad teams. The bucs are really bad. But Carolina winning big last week at home has inflated this line. Should be more like -3.5-4.5. The Casinos do not set lines based on what they think is a fair point spread, they set the line based on where they think all the money will come in on. No one is thinking of betting on the Bucs, so Carolina gets the inflated line and the public will still bet on it because they simply cannot back the Bucs since they are so bad and martin has gone out etc. Everything points to a Carolina beat down in their eyes. Carolina is a terrible road team and it is a short week and a divisional game. Carolina is looking ahead to next week and preparing to beat the Falcons as they are only other team that can catch them for 2nd in the division.
A divisional game, a short week, a Bucs team that has been cornered, two good defences and everyone counting the bucs out. This has trap written all over it. Could not pay me to bet this game. If anything it is Carolina on the ML and -240 is a little rich.
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AFNfootballnerd | 77 |
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I like Philly at home and I think the crowd plays a big part in this. I do not see Reid winning in Philly but I would play the money line.
That is a great line on NE if Gronk comes back. Otherwise this could end up like the Jets game. I only bet the Jets when they are dogs. The Bills offence is terrible but so is the Jets. Usually the home team gets -2.5 for home field advantage. I would take Jets as a PK as they are kind of being called underdogs here. I was thinking the same for Miami. Their defence is great and Atlanta is banged up really good. I think Snelling is a good backup who will produce some yards but Roddy White being hurt really changes what this offence can do. Gonzo is also not in game shape yet. They simply are not as explosive as they were last year. Miami grinds this out as Atlanta's O line takes a beating and their defence is like a wet paper bag. GB can score 24-31 on Cincy no problem. Their D is terrible though and even worse on the road. I would leave over too as Cincy will be able to move the ball and AJ will torch the secondary.
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megatron54 | 3 |
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Laying 13 points on NE after that crap show of an offensive display against buffalo is not wise. NY Jets can play D and this is a conference game, which are usually tight. Prime time TV as well,so called bad teams play well because they do not want to be embarrassed in front the whole of North America. These teams know each other very well. Sharps have already hit the NY Jets as the spread is down to 12.
Lions coming off a big division win at home, hitting the road with confidence against an Arizona team that lost a tight one against a good St. louis team. Playing on turf compared to grass will be much different for Detroit and Arizona D is better than you think. On a home opener coming off a loss Arizona will be ready to play and they are the underdog in this one despite the pickem as home teams should get -2.5 minimum if teams are matched well. No respect for Zona and too much excitement for Detroit because they won a game and beat up on the Vikings D (not very hard to do). Zona wins I like Seahawks but would wait for it to go down to -2.5. I doubt it will though without laying more juice on it. Seattle won a tough game against a tough defence last week and their defence will be much tougher to score on than the swiss cheese GB defence. SF has all the hype because of the big numbers Boldin, Davis and Kap put up. I could see Baltimore coming out strong at home and covering this. Division game though and Cleveland losing at home to an ok Miami team will inflate this line. Cowboys +3 at moment and this is my beating of the week. KC is hard to play at and even harder to win at. Chiefs looked good and played good on both sides. They did not play great and I am sure they will get up for this game against America's team. KC has a great secondary and they will give Romo lots of problems. KC does not turn the ball over that much and Dallas needed 6 turnovers to beat the Giants at home. Dallas beat the Giants for first time at new stadium and this is a pretty big win feeling for them. I can see this looking sloppy and Dallas not being able to dig itself out of the hole. Andy Reid will be ready, Jason Garrett is one of the worst coaches in NFL.
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ChemicalAli | 59 |
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Giants fan here, these teams have traded road wins the last few years and the Giants have a knack for winning games they should not. Giants have a bunch of injuries and Nicks is a question mark as to effectiveness. Giants have a great D-line that will pressure but their back 7 is total junk. I can see Austin and Bryant scoring and one of them getting 2 TD's. Dallas always has a bunch of hype at start of season and they usually never live up to it. If anything I think the under is the play. Divisions games are usually tough and tight and both teams with try to run enough, especially the Giants - to keep high flying Bryant etc off field. Dallas team will get more stops than Giants I think but team familiarity makes this one go under. I think Washington is the team to beat this year.
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cowboys4949 | 22 |
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I kind of figured the public would be hitting the over large as the public love overs and favs. What really sells me on the over is that the offences are just as potent and have not lost any talent but probably gained it. The defences are terrible though and there is no legit pass rushers on either D. Pass rushers cause most of the pressure that makes good QB's make mistakes. I can see them having 5 seconds to throw each pass. Matty Ice is steady and does not turnover much (he can toss 3-4 TD's against soft opponents too and Brees can light anyone up). Gonzalez and Graham had 100 plus yards and 2 TD's each in first game last year. The matchups say over in a big way in my eyes. I can se the NO defence being worse than last year and that would be another record. Atlanta actually got worse on defence losing their one half decent pass rusher in John Abraham, Osi and Babineaux are past their primes. You have the number 1 and 6 passing offences from last year and they both ranked above 25 in rushing offence. This looks like shootout big time.
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mullinsky | 6 |
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54 is a big number but I am leaning over.
First game at NO last year went to total of 58 and the stats show how easy it was for Ryan and Brees to score with major passing numbers and obvious mismatches all over the filed with WR's. Game two was ugly and I think it was the worst start ever for Brees with 5 INTs and went way under. That will not happen again. The D's on both sides just cannot keep up with the O's and NO has switched from a 4-3 front 7 to a 3-4 and their personnel does not seem to match that very well. I think putting the new defence to the test against one of the top offences in the league in game one of season on turf will result in a track meet and lots of points. I give the advantage to offences at beginning of the year and especially game 1 as there is no tape to prepare for from the other team and good offences always have an advantage. There are no stars on the defences here and I cannot see anyone making consistent game changing plays. I also think Peyton has something to prove and will pull a Belichick and run up scores as much as possible (like after the spygate thing). With all that said I hate having this many reasons to pick the over, it seems to easy and the fact that this is a divisional game always worries me because the teams know each other much better and no one wants to lose week one. Could be some conservative play calling at some point and some clock killing to insure a week 1 win and a divisional lead. Any comments?
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mullinsky | 6 |
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Sorry boys, fight fixing has been going on way to long. You cannot tell me that there is no chance the UFC fixes fights or somehow affects them to go its most beneficial way. Just like the NBA was never fixed, we all found out that one last summer. Now let's look at all the point shaving and fixing that takes place in the NCAA. Keep in mind that no fighter is going to take a beating for 10-20k, uhm yeah they will, not to mention the extra under the table cash they get from taking the loss that no one finds out about.
It is crazy how the original ultimate fighter won the belt right after he was on the ultimate fighter show, and throw in the fact that the ultimate fighter show was going downhill in recent years. Do not even try and tell me Griffin won the first round of that fight, one judge had him at 10-8 in the round. Griffin fought well enough not to get knocked out and he won the 2nd round by laying on rampage and did not do any damage at all. A unanimous decision was the icing on the cake for this one. I do not think this fight was thrown or worked by a fighter, it was the judges. Ibarra has already sent in a complaint, and now they have to sit down with him and explain to him how Rampage lost the fight. That should be good.
As for the St. Pierre fight, I just think St. Pierre fights better when he wants the belt, not when he has it.
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Gridiron_GHANDI | 10 |
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This one is over I think. Germany cannot even get into Spains end most of the time. Spain is to fast and Germany yet again never capitalizes on its chances. You are only going to get so many good chances in this game, Germany had 2-3 already and now they have to play from behind. Hope for extra time or some Turkey BS to get pulled.
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seaona | 15 |
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