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Sorry guys, can't come yesterday... Picks for last night were : under 191 Pistons, under 193 Blazers, over 205.5 Raptors.. Went 2-0-1...
Record : 16-8-1 (66.67%) ; +6.56U (+27.33%) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Record : 13-7 (65%) ; +4.83U (+24.15%) Tonight's card : Magic @ Clippers : under 191.5 (1 unit) Nets @ Bulls : under 192 (1 unit) Wolves @ Raptors : over 208.5 (1 unit) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Thanks for the fernch speaking No game for tonight in the system... Trends are, based on last 10's influences : Spurs under Portland over Golden State over Phila over Good luck |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igziabeher:
Wizards @ Pistons : under 191 (1 unit) FT, Wizards 94-98 Pistons Record : 13-7 (65%) ; +4.83U (+24.15%) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igziabeher:
Jazz @ Wolves : under 197.5 (1 unit) FT, Jazz 101-108 Wolves Record : 13-6 (68.42%) ; +5.83U (+30.68%) One game tonight : Wizards @ Pistons : under 191 (1 unit) Good luck to all |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Jazz @ Wolves : under 197.5 (1 unit) Good luck to all |
igziabeher | 102 |
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One game for tonight : Jazz @ Wolves : under 196.5 (I wait to see any line's move to confirm the total)
I try to make this system a better system, so I begin to look also at the last 10 influences... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igziabeher:
Bucks @ Pistons : under 186.5 (1 unit) Raptors @ Wizards : over 215.5 (1 unit) FT, Bucks 95-106 Pistons FT, Raptors 109-107 OT Wizards Record : 13-5 (72.22%) ; +6.83U (+37.94%) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Tonight's final card : Bucks @ Pistons : under 186.5 (1 unit) Raptors @ Wizards : over 215.5 (1 unit) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Big card tonight : Raptors @ Wizards : total should be around 222.5 points => over 215.5 (enters in the system) Knicks @ Hawks : total should be around 212 points => under 216.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are positive) Celtics @ Thunder : total should be around 186 points => under 192.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause negative influences are not strong enough to play it) Bulls @ Cavalers : total should be around 189 points => under 190 (doesn't enter in the system cause totals are too closed) Mavericks @ Grizzlies : total should be around 194 points => under 206 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Bucks @ Pistons : total should be around 175 points => under 186.5 points (enters in the system) Wolves @ Hornets : total should be around 194 points => under 200.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Bobcats @ Nets : total should be around 163.5 points => under 181 (doesn't enter in the system cause of Nets' new coach, I wait to play Nets) Pacers @ Jazz : total should be around 209 points => under 209.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause totals are too closed) Heat @ Lakers : total should be around 198 points => under 199 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary)
So actually two plays for tonight : Raptors @ Wizards : over 215.5 Bucks @ Pistons : under 186.5 Wait a bit to confirm those picks... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Tonight's totals : Celtics @ Spurs : 191.5 points => over 188 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are negative) Rockets @ Warriors : 222 points (221.9 in fact) => under 222 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Heat @ Nuggets : 218 points => over 209.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary)
So, no play for tonight... Good luck to all
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igziabeher | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igziabeher:
Pistons @ Bulls : under 182 (1 unit) FT, 85-92 Record : 12-4 (75%) ; +6.92U (+43.25%) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Tonight's numbers : Knicks @ Magic : 207 points, so under 208 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are positive) Bucks @ Wizards : 191.5 points, so under 197 (doesn't enter un the system cause influences are contrary) Raptors @ Hawks : 216.5 points, so over 211.5 (enters in the system if the total doesn't move higher) Suns @ Cavaliers : 210.5 points, so under 213 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Mavericks @ Nets : 176 points, so under 190 (should enter in the system, but I won't play it because of the new coach for Nets, wait to see what kind of basket they will play (offensive or defensive) Pistons @ Bulls : 174 points, so under 182 (enters in the system) Grizzlies @ Wolves : 204.5 points, so over 202.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Sixers @ Thunder : 196.8 points, so under 197 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are contrary) Pacers @ Kings : 215.3 points, so under 215.5 (doesn't enter in the system cause influences are positive) Rockets @ Clippers : 190 points, so under 193 (doesn't enter un the system cause influences are contrary)
So actually, one game : Pistons @ Bulls : under 182 (1 unit) Wait to confirm over in Atlanta, and see the line's movements... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Happy for you if you had a good night list night Can you give me an example of calcul for your numbers ? Do you make difference between home games and away games ? Do you use a deviation factor ? If yes, what do you use as factor ? How many games do you take in account ? |
igziabeher | 102 |
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For 4 of yesterday's game, the system gave me totals which were closed to the reality (prediction : 206 at Toronto, 208 finally ; prediction : 226.5 at NY, 225 finally ; prediction : 238 at Denver, finally 242 ; prediction : 205 at LA, 209 finally)... Big differences were for the lowest totals (prediction : 165 at Boston, finally 198 ; prediction : 186.5 at Portland, finally 207)... Interesting to note... I understand what you mean with you deviation fiire, thanks for your example... If I've understood everything, I can say : Pistons @ Bulls : Avg total of Chicago's home games : 177 points Avg total of Detroit's away games : 193 points (177+193)/2 = 185... League avg = 197.93 => deviation = 185-197.93 = -12.93... I multiply this difference by 2 I think (two defensive teams), so I've got a predicted total which is : 197.93 - 2*12.93 ) = 172 points... For the other games : Knicks @ Magic : (200.38+201.75)/2 - 197.93 = +3.135 197.93 + 3.135*1.5 = 202.5 points Bucks @ Wizards : (198.86+185.57)/2 - 197.93 = -5.715 197.93 -5.175*1.5 = 189.5 points Raptors @ Hawks : (200.5+215.1)/2 -197.93 = +9.87 197.93 + 1.5*9.87 = 212.5 points Suns @ Cavaliers : (192.75+214.67)/2 - 197.93 = +5.78 197.93 + 1.5*5.78 = 206.5 points Mavericks @ Nets : (180.33+191.9)/2 - 197.93 = -11.815 197.93 - 11.815*1.5 = 180 points Grizzlies @ Wolves : (189.78+213.55)/2 -197.93 = +3.735 197.93 + 1.5*3.735 = 203.5 points Sixers @ Thunder : (190.25+200)/2 - 197.93 = -2.805 197.93 - 1.5*2.805 = 193.5 points Kings @ Pacers : (196.33+205.14)/2 -197.93 = +2.805 197.93 + 1.5*2.805 = 202 points Rockets @ Clippers : (191.9+201.33)/2 -197.93 = -1.315 197.93 - 1.5*1.315 = 196 points
Am I right ? Which team to you consider as a good offense ? A team that score more than 105 points per game ? Which team to you consider as a bad defense ? A teamp which allows more than 105 ppg ? Idem with the defense : allowing less than 95 ppg is a good defense ? scoring less than 95 ppg is a bad offense ? What should be the difference between the calculated total and the book's total in order to play the under or over ? About 5 points ? With this system, Knicks @ Magic should be under 210 points, Bucks @ Wizards should be under 196 points, Suns @ Cavaliers should be under 213 points, Mavericks @ Nets should be under 188.5 points, Kings @ Pacers should be under 217 points... I think it's a no play for Raptors @ Hawks and Sixers @ Thunder... Do you sometimes find over to play ? |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igziabeher:
Celtics @ Bobcats : under 179.5 (1 unit) FT, 108-90 Record : 11-4 (73.33%) ; +6.01U (ROI = +40.07%) |
igziabeher | 102 |
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One play for tonight : Celtics @ Bobcats : under 179.5 (1 unit) Good luck to all |
igziabeher | 102 |
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I understand it's better to take account of just the last 10 games for example... But it will take really lot of time to note which are the last 10 games on my Excel paper... And if a team has a big road trip, with 6 or 7 games away, if I have to take the last 10 games at home for this team, it's not more representative of the form cause maybe 20 days before... I think the only thing I have to consider really is a change of coach... If the new coach hasn't the same mentality than the one before, results shoulnd't been considered any more... That's why I think I won't bet on Nets' games before seeing the new way the play (I've read they change their coach)... If I take in consideration last games, injuries, historic, etc... it becomes really difficult and will take a really long time... I'm looking for 65-70% of good picks, and it'll be OK... I'm not looking for a 90% which could take me too much time... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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I don't really care about the line movements... Had under 194 for Nets @ Lakers, opened at 192, finally 193... Had over 207.5 two days ago in a game, opened at 210.5, finally 208 points... System predicted 204.5 points yesterday in Dallas, total opened at 200.5, down to 199, with finally 206 points in the game... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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Of course they are not... Same thing for Charlotte 79-68 NJN... That's why an avg influence represents really well what should happen... And for these games, maybe the books' totals were closed of the calculated ones, and these games wouldn't have been played... in fact, they weren't played, cause not enough games to have a good idea of the influences... I've never said this system leads to 100%... If I can get something close to 70%, I'll be happy... But I can't ignore these games, cause it will change the reality... Boston is able to score a lot in a game if they want to... So sometimes, they give big scores... Important to note that, for example, with this system, I will never play an over for the Bobcats, the Celtics, the Blazers, etc... cause these teams have negative influences... And in the other hand, I'll never play an under for the Knicks, the Nuggets, the Warriors, the Suns, the Kings, etc... caus these teams have positive influences... |
igziabeher | 102 |
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