I'd say the Jays ML should be higher so this is a bargain. Atlanta is hurtin' and home field advantage will often go to visitors this yr. No book tricks.....lay it before it climbs!
I'd say the Jays ML should be higher so this is a bargain. Atlanta is hurtin' and home field advantage will often go to visitors this yr. No book tricks.....lay it before it climbs!
FYI -- I'm pasting what I can of this from my blog item as titled above -- but the pitching log won't fit very well, so if you want to review it, you may have to look it up there (spaces.covers.com/gfoss59):
Today we look at Toronto's interleague record with Doc Halladay pitching: 1-3 in 2008, 3-0 in 2007, and 2-1 in 2006.
( For the full log, please see blog item at https://spaces.covers.com/gfoss59 ).
Of
course, at a line of -150 or less, as when Halladay pitched against the
Pirates and Phillies in 08, and the Dodgers in 07 and the Marlins in
06, we have a different risk-reward profile.
Then there's the question of whether to go 5 innings, runline, or 9 innings moneyline.
Of Toronto's 6 wins on Halladay interleague starts, they covered the runline 5 times.
Interleague games have been well-publicized as often producing runline covers, which may help explain why taking the runline on this game only improves the odds from -150 moneyline to +110 runline -- not a very substantial payoff compared to the norm, but not necessarily bad in interleague terms.
Five innings got you a push in Toronto's 2008 9-inning loss to the Pirates. It made no difference in losses to the Reds and the Cubs. And it would have converted a win to a push against the Phillies.
Toronto overall was 3-6 overall in interleague play last year on the road, all of which followed the transition to City Gaston (though one might say it took him some time to get this team playing as well as it has over the last 100 or so games.)
Then of course you have the strange case of the Braves, 8-12 at home, 12-8 on the road, and very weak against righties (less than 4 runs per game.)
All of which leaves me a little undecided about this one, and welcoming intelligent responses.
FYI -- I'm pasting what I can of this from my blog item as titled above -- but the pitching log won't fit very well, so if you want to review it, you may have to look it up there (spaces.covers.com/gfoss59):
Today we look at Toronto's interleague record with Doc Halladay pitching: 1-3 in 2008, 3-0 in 2007, and 2-1 in 2006.
( For the full log, please see blog item at https://spaces.covers.com/gfoss59 ).
Of
course, at a line of -150 or less, as when Halladay pitched against the
Pirates and Phillies in 08, and the Dodgers in 07 and the Marlins in
06, we have a different risk-reward profile.
Then there's the question of whether to go 5 innings, runline, or 9 innings moneyline.
Of Toronto's 6 wins on Halladay interleague starts, they covered the runline 5 times.
Interleague games have been well-publicized as often producing runline covers, which may help explain why taking the runline on this game only improves the odds from -150 moneyline to +110 runline -- not a very substantial payoff compared to the norm, but not necessarily bad in interleague terms.
Five innings got you a push in Toronto's 2008 9-inning loss to the Pirates. It made no difference in losses to the Reds and the Cubs. And it would have converted a win to a push against the Phillies.
Toronto overall was 3-6 overall in interleague play last year on the road, all of which followed the transition to City Gaston (though one might say it took him some time to get this team playing as well as it has over the last 100 or so games.)
Then of course you have the strange case of the Braves, 8-12 at home, 12-8 on the road, and very weak against righties (less than 4 runs per game.)
All of which leaves me a little undecided about this one, and welcoming intelligent responses.
I tried to warn you fools about Kwakami and his Saki addiction on his last start. Arizona bombed his ass and the rest is history. This guy is a bust and needs to go back to the Hirohito Tigers.
I tried to warn you fools about Kwakami and his Saki addiction on his last start. Arizona bombed his ass and the rest is history. This guy is a bust and needs to go back to the Hirohito Tigers.
This is the closest to "easy money", that you're ever likely to find w/ this sport.
Blue Feathers
Sounds very much like the colleague who assured me yesterday that Greinke and KC couldn't lose. I told him Cleveland seems to do well against him... He scoffed. Why is this an especially attractive proposition given it's on the road, given Toronto's interleague record, and Halladay's of last year (which followed the Gaston transition, btw)?
This is the closest to "easy money", that you're ever likely to find w/ this sport.
Blue Feathers
Sounds very much like the colleague who assured me yesterday that Greinke and KC couldn't lose. I told him Cleveland seems to do well against him... He scoffed. Why is this an especially attractive proposition given it's on the road, given Toronto's interleague record, and Halladay's of last year (which followed the Gaston transition, btw)?
Sounds very much like the colleague who assured me yesterday that Greinke and KC couldn't lose. I told him Cleveland seems to do well against him... He scoffed. Why is this an especially attractive proposition given it's on the road, given Toronto's interleague record, and Halladay's of last year (which followed the Gaston transition, btw)?
With respect.
I stated that this is 'the closest you could get'. I do not pretend anything is 99% with this game.
And if I believed as much, I WOULD have laid the RL (which I did not).
Sounds very much like the colleague who assured me yesterday that Greinke and KC couldn't lose. I told him Cleveland seems to do well against him... He scoffed. Why is this an especially attractive proposition given it's on the road, given Toronto's interleague record, and Halladay's of last year (which followed the Gaston transition, btw)?
With respect.
I stated that this is 'the closest you could get'. I do not pretend anything is 99% with this game.
And if I believed as much, I WOULD have laid the RL (which I did not).
P.S. The reason I wrote ""easy money"" in my original post. Is because I see ppl write that phrase on here all the damn time, and it just makes me shake my head. NOTHING about any of this should be considered "easy".
And if a user wrote that, and that wager cashed . . . they got lucky. Simple as that.
I'm glad you took my first post into question, though. Because it is important to remind ourselves of the scarcity of 'black and white' and prevailing majority of 'grey'.
P.S. The reason I wrote ""easy money"" in my original post. Is because I see ppl write that phrase on here all the damn time, and it just makes me shake my head. NOTHING about any of this should be considered "easy".
And if a user wrote that, and that wager cashed . . . they got lucky. Simple as that.
I'm glad you took my first post into question, though. Because it is important to remind ourselves of the scarcity of 'black and white' and prevailing majority of 'grey'.
thanks, Unit G -- I'm always looking for some meaningful interaction on these boards, and too often just seeing people shout their position. i don't mean to sound hyper-critical, but I do mean to think critically. and make money.
really, i'm gar less interested in nitpicking your choice of words or expatiating on the nature of certainty (which I didn't mean to do; pardon if I seemed like it) than in understanding why you think this is such a slam dunk, si vous plait, for toronto.
let's chat about that... if you like. and hail fellow well met.
thanks, Unit G -- I'm always looking for some meaningful interaction on these boards, and too often just seeing people shout their position. i don't mean to sound hyper-critical, but I do mean to think critically. and make money.
really, i'm gar less interested in nitpicking your choice of words or expatiating on the nature of certainty (which I didn't mean to do; pardon if I seemed like it) than in understanding why you think this is such a slam dunk, si vous plait, for toronto.
let's chat about that... if you like. and hail fellow well met.
I don't understand why this line is holding steady. You would think toronto would be pounded by bettors with Halladay pitching. He goes deep every game and he has a low era. Atlanta's got a pitcher who hasn't really made it past the 5th inning. I don't get the line movement. Atlanta seems so overmatched here. What am I not seeing that this line isn't -200 or more? Anybody know?
I don't understand why this line is holding steady. You would think toronto would be pounded by bettors with Halladay pitching. He goes deep every game and he has a low era. Atlanta's got a pitcher who hasn't really made it past the 5th inning. I don't get the line movement. Atlanta seems so overmatched here. What am I not seeing that this line isn't -200 or more? Anybody know?
Sticking with my 1st post last night. It's easy for many of us to 2nd guess ourself when "funny" lines come out. This line could still climb but I'm happy it's not. I still stand with Toronto. This is this year and the Jays seem to find a way to manufacture runs in a low scoring or high scoring game. I'm taking them ML only because they are on the road in what used to be a tough ballpark to win on the road. I expect a RL win though.
Sticking with my 1st post last night. It's easy for many of us to 2nd guess ourself when "funny" lines come out. This line could still climb but I'm happy it's not. I still stand with Toronto. This is this year and the Jays seem to find a way to manufacture runs in a low scoring or high scoring game. I'm taking them ML only because they are on the road in what used to be a tough ballpark to win on the road. I expect a RL win though.
I don't understand why this line is holding steady. You would think toronto would be pounded by bettors with Halladay pitching. He goes deep every game and he has a low era. Atlanta's got a pitcher who hasn't really made it past the 5th inning. I don't get the line movement. Atlanta seems so overmatched here. What am I not seeing that this line isn't -200 or more? Anybody know?
My sense is --
1. Innate fear and uncertainty when we go to interleague games. Not as big a statline, &tc. &tc. Just more doubt in the air.
2. Halladay's 6-4 interleague, and was 1-3 last year. It's not terrible but it's not as sparkling as his record vs. the AL, and it is a road game -- meaning he'll have the agony of hitting, &tc.
3. Blue Jays on a bad road trip so far. Tho getting diced by Boston in Boston is not that different than losing to the Cavs in the NBA in Cleveland was.
I'm not fully agreeing with this reasoning -- just trying to explain why I think the line isn't higher.
This said, I think it's a good proposition. Especially with Chipper out and the Braves in such a hitting funk at home. At that Atlanta pitcher.
But I like 5 innings better. In the last 10 losses by the Blue Jays with Halladay starting -- meaning you lost the full game bet -- there were three games where a 5 inning bet pushed, and another three games where a 5 inning bet was an outright win.
So it makes sense to me to allocate more to the 5 inning side. (As I suggested yesterday in the game thread on Greinke and the Royals -- the 5 inning won, the 9 inning lost.)
If you're interested, I've got more stats on Halladay interleague, including his pitching log 06-present, at my covers page.
I don't understand why this line is holding steady. You would think toronto would be pounded by bettors with Halladay pitching. He goes deep every game and he has a low era. Atlanta's got a pitcher who hasn't really made it past the 5th inning. I don't get the line movement. Atlanta seems so overmatched here. What am I not seeing that this line isn't -200 or more? Anybody know?
My sense is --
1. Innate fear and uncertainty when we go to interleague games. Not as big a statline, &tc. &tc. Just more doubt in the air.
2. Halladay's 6-4 interleague, and was 1-3 last year. It's not terrible but it's not as sparkling as his record vs. the AL, and it is a road game -- meaning he'll have the agony of hitting, &tc.
3. Blue Jays on a bad road trip so far. Tho getting diced by Boston in Boston is not that different than losing to the Cavs in the NBA in Cleveland was.
I'm not fully agreeing with this reasoning -- just trying to explain why I think the line isn't higher.
This said, I think it's a good proposition. Especially with Chipper out and the Braves in such a hitting funk at home. At that Atlanta pitcher.
But I like 5 innings better. In the last 10 losses by the Blue Jays with Halladay starting -- meaning you lost the full game bet -- there were three games where a 5 inning bet pushed, and another three games where a 5 inning bet was an outright win.
So it makes sense to me to allocate more to the 5 inning side. (As I suggested yesterday in the game thread on Greinke and the Royals -- the 5 inning won, the 9 inning lost.)
If you're interested, I've got more stats on Halladay interleague, including his pitching log 06-present, at my covers page.
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