VP Harris.....

@wallstreetcappers

 Is the BLS' role simply compiling data? Or is there and element of analysis?

@wallstreetcappers

 Just trying to simplify it for you in a way to get you to admit the numbers that SHE put out were off as far as you say they weren’t.  
You are still the only one who refuses to see this. 

@wallstreetcappers

 Saw this on a sports thread today and it reminded me of your attitude when you refuse to ever admit you are wrong:

“@RorySparrow: In other words, you can't come up with it because you're wrong. Btw, Google had the 1998 game i mentioned. It’s ok to be wrong, but being wrong and being snarky...that's a tough look.”

@StumpTownStu

It is basically a double survey each month.  One that is essentially going around and knocking on folk’s doors.  The second is the surveys from the businesses that are done in a multitude of ways.

They then compile and collate the data and extrapolate it out for the country.  They have a group of economists and statisticians that evaluate all of these numbers.  They then smooth out all of these by taking into account seasonal hiring and things of that sort to get a monthly number to present.  They do it with advanced statistics in order to prevent sudden large spikes and dropoffs from month to month.

You can make the case very easily that something might be askew in their methodology.  But the drastic difference lately is the concern.

For example, the average revision used to be around 60,000 jobs.  The last couple of decades it is around 50,000 jobs.

Now, the last couple of revisions of 120,000 and 130,000 are hugely off.

For quite a few months now we have been seeing a drag on the economy in a few areas.  The job market numbers were not demonstrating this however.   

You can make the case that the BLS has a flawed methodology or has been lax at their job.  But to deviate that much is not statistically possible without something being off somewhere.  It is a reach to say, without better proof, that it has been politically motivated.  But it is very odd what has been coming out of that department for the last several months.

This department is important enough, and matters an awful lot to a lot of people, that folks need a sense of accountability over there.

@StumpTownStu

Then you look at how they have been untimely with the release of the reports.  Then you couple it with their early release to folks on Wall Street — the so-called ‘Super Users’.  This is easily looked at as unethical at best or outright insider trading at worst.

So, while the data may not have been being skewed for political reasons, there is no doubt they are doing a very poor job.

She is the head statistician over there and responsible for producing a more timely and more accurate report.  She has not been doing that for quite some time.  So, she certainly needed to be fired — if not charged.  I think every economist and statistician over there should have been let go.

There is a real likelihood of stagflation setting in if things are not accounted for accurately.  This would be worse than a normal recession.  Because the FED would be handcuffed in a sense.  The inflation would be up too much to effectively lower the interest rate to try to manage things.

That is why the jobs number report needs to be more accurate.   It helps in very important ways to manage the economy.  I am not a fan of the FED at all, and certainly not Powell.  He has been very reactionary, instead of being proactive.

This is a time that he could have been and likely would have been.  He, more or less, put this out there in a nicer way by saying he did not fully trust the numbers over there.

The other thing to consider is that this is a time where the refinancing of the debt needs to be done.  This could have meant around $15B a month just on interest that would be being saved.

If all of these departments are not effectively working together at a time when there is a chance to make things better — then they will only get worse and for longer.

Even the Department of Labor has said that the BLS was ‘not sufficiently focused on how key economic data are released and that the agency needed retooling’.

There is a big swing with this administration with the focus on economic policy concerning supply-side versus demand-side.

Then there is a concern with the trickeration with the bonds going on and coming up the next couple of months.  They claim it not to be QE over at the Treasury Market because they are dipping into the SOMA account.  But it is essentially going to be the same thing in the end, no matter what you call it.

So, I think it is too critical of a time to continue down the same path over at the BLS if the numbers cannot be trusted.  It gives a sense of manipulation even if it is the change in methodology, inadequate process, or incompetence.   

Blank surveys go out to corps and companies for them to fill out, they electively fill out the requested information and submit. The BLS compiles and reports the data from the companies and that is the number that they report.

There is no ownership of numbers to which you do not create the data, they report the data. Their estimates and projections are based on historical data from previous reports and is never accurate to any degree of reliability. There cannot be a miss or make when the projection is based on historical data and especially when the month to month report is incomplete. There are revisions after revisions after revisions every single report. Companies are slow to submit the surveys so to me a better solution is to make a rolling 3-4 month average as that would give a much stronger report which is more complete and less inaccurate.

You can research what the BLS does and their function, they send out blank surveys and compile what data the COMPANIES send back, the sample size of the BLS data is quite pathetic on top of all the other flaws that this report has.

A miss is when an NBA player who holds the ball does not make a shot, a miss is not when a NBA team reporter says that a player has a 95% FT percentage and rarely misses and then the player misses....time to fire the commentator.

Pathetic...what a slimy childish retort, nothing like personal insults when you do not get your way.

Just pointing out your pathetic and childish retort when I keep proving you wrong. 

There was no need for you to resort to that sort of attitude.  Your snarkiness is unnecessary.