I posted this in Van's thread but wanted a discussion on this topic.
I am one who believes Romney wins this by 5%. The turnout will be different this time out. Polls are using 2008 models when Obama had a huge turnout of people who don't normally vote. He won't have as much of that turnout this time.
Romney will have every republican in the country go to the polls because of the hatred of Obama. He is also leading with the independents.
I think Romney wins, and the country goes nuts burning cars and couches and other items. People will assume he stole the election and there will be riots.
I have money on Romney +300.