Euro 2008 picks thread part deux.....

Holland just mocking the French now

4-1

SATURDAYS GAMES:

Im putting out an APB (all put bets) on the 2 overs on Saturday.

The second round trend of goals will continue on Saturday.

The Spain / Sweden game is first, and the formula for this one is a goal in the first half.  If there is a goal in the first half, this game will open up wide as all the others have in this round.  Im in at OVER 2 -125, but the line is creeping up steadily.  I think Spain will win the game, but I think there is better value in the over.  The longer the game is scoreless the better the chances of an under - I know that sounds obvious - but it is compounded exponentially in a game like this.  A goal in the first 30 minutes almost guarantees an over as the team that is down throws everyone up and either scores or gets scored on - sounds ridiculously simple but thats the way it is.  I see Spain taking an early lead and then goals start coming.... Prediction Spain 2-1.

Same thing with a different twist in the second game.  The Greeks prefer to play a totally defensive, counterattacking style, but cant because of their place in the group.  They have to throw caution to the wind and try to win this game - as do the Russians who are in the same position.  The Russians can score, and get scored on as we saw in the spain game.  Same deal with this one, an early goal will help - but since a draw does very little for these teams they will be going for broke....  OVER 2 -118.  Prediction 4 goals.

These are both medium sized bets for me, not as big as my biggest and not as small as my smallest.  Medium large.

GL all - and get in now - I think these lines will keep going up....

 

THanks all for the kind statements.

I told everyone before this tournament started - I may suck at most things - but I dont suck at this.  Every 2 years I make money, and then proceed to lose double that over the course of the next 2 years.

To continue some thoughts on the overs - one important factor is what is apparantly a line drawn in the sand by EUFA and the refs to not put up with ANYTHING in the box anymore.  It started with the Austria call yesterday (great fucking time to start) and continued with the Romania call today.  Even if no penalties are called - this makes a huge difference in the box as players on offense are allowed to flow and jump and make plays on goal.

So far in the second round games, these are the scores:

Croatia 2 Germany 1

Poland 1 Austria 1

Turkey 2 Switz 1

Portugal 3 Czech 1

Netherlands 4 France 1

Romania 1 Italy 1

I consulted with the math experts of Covers (abooknightmare and ncassman) and they confirmed to me that there is not one game in the second round that has gone under 2.  They tell me some of the games landed on 2, but none went under.

The reason for this is the open play that is created when teams HAVE to win.

Look for this to continue, and soak up the low over prices created by the first round games.

I consulted with the math experts of Covers (abooknightmare and ncassman) and they confirmed to me that there is not one game in the second round that has gone under 2.  They tell me some of the games landed on 2, but none went under.

Every team has scored at least one goal in their second match of group play.  Did they clarify this as well?

In all seriousness, I am looking for Russia to put one down on the Greeks.  Greece may not score at all in any of these matches.  Their whole "thing" is - as you put it - "counterattacking".  Not unlike an American football team that relies on opportunistic defense, good special teams, and mediocre offense with just enough of a running game to eat some clock.   The problem is when such teams play other teams that don't make egregious mistakes and have to self-create and improvise, they are really pretty lost.  Romania today, perfect example, counterattacking team that wouldn't have even sniffed the net without an enormous fuck-up by Italy. 

Didn't really finish my thought.  All that to say that I prefer your Sweden/Spain over bet to that of your Greece/Russia risk.  Sweden is large, physical, and experienced in defense so I don't expect Spain to enjoy the same level of execution, passing, and finishing around the box tomorrow as what Russia allowed, but just the same there is so much talent on the pitch that you may see an individual moment of brilliance (or two or three) and there is no certainty it will be Spain that provides it.  I think between ZI and Larsson there is more than enough experience and niftiness to create a goal, their midfield is decent as well Svenson and Ljungberg both distributing and attacking.  It does seem unlikely that that match will stay under 2 goals. 

Now that I have said all this of course, the first match will end 0-0, while Greece will win 4-3.  But that is just the way I see it breaking down tomorrow.  I think Spain by a 2 goal margin with a score line of either 2-0 or 3-1, and Russia - provided they can get organized, 1-0.  If David Villa gets another hat trick I will write him in for my presidential vote in November.

GL van.  I haven't been capping Euro, just following it very closely as I do with a lot of international football.  I love soccer.  Can't tolerate MLS though.  Its girls soccer.  Horror show.

i got this for spain vs sweden

5700	Spain		-½,-1  -140	-165	Over 2,2½  -140
5701	Sweden		+½,+1  +110	+475	Under 2,2½  +110

should i take the over??

Gar - I agree and good analysis.

I do think you will see Greece break out of their defensive game today - they really have to.

GL 

And theres the early goal I needed.

Now watch the game open up.....