For those of you curious how to calculate. You need 4 numbers.
Home line
Road line
Home betting %
Road betting %
The calculation is as follows:
If 93% of bets are on the Ducks at -110 that means Vegas pays out $58.1818214 for every $100 bet on that game in the event of a Ducks win.
If 7% of bets are on the Predators at -110 that means Vegas pays out $6.363636 for every $100 bet on that game in the event of a Predators win.
Vegas keeps 20% worth of juice AS WELL AS any losing bets.
So a Ducks win will result in Vegas losing
$84.54545
- $20
- $6.363636
= $58.1818214
A Predators win will result in Vegas winning
$58.1818214 for every $100 bet on that game.
Vegas doesn't give out free money. Make your picks how you please.
This is misleading. You are assuming an equal money wager for each bet. That's not realistic. Unless you are only assuming that based on the line not moving -- which is not necessarily telling.
The line did move from +105 to -104 on Pinnacle, getting all the way up to -114 at one point. The books had no idea on this game i.m.o. which is why they jumped all over the place if you look at the way the lines moved from opening to game time. The last percentages I saw were 69% on Ducks, 31% on Preds. Far from 93% and 7% as you stated.
For those of you curious how to calculate. You need 4 numbers.
Home line
Road line
Home betting %
Road betting %
The calculation is as follows:
If 93% of bets are on the Ducks at -110 that means Vegas pays out $58.1818214 for every $100 bet on that game in the event of a Ducks win.
If 7% of bets are on the Predators at -110 that means Vegas pays out $6.363636 for every $100 bet on that game in the event of a Predators win.
Vegas keeps 20% worth of juice AS WELL AS any losing bets.
So a Ducks win will result in Vegas losing
$84.54545
- $20
- $6.363636
= $58.1818214
A Predators win will result in Vegas winning
$58.1818214 for every $100 bet on that game.
Vegas doesn't give out free money. Make your picks how you please.
This is misleading. You are assuming an equal money wager for each bet. That's not realistic. Unless you are only assuming that based on the line not moving -- which is not necessarily telling.
The line did move from +105 to -104 on Pinnacle, getting all the way up to -114 at one point. The books had no idea on this game i.m.o. which is why they jumped all over the place if you look at the way the lines moved from opening to game time. The last percentages I saw were 69% on Ducks, 31% on Preds. Far from 93% and 7% as you stated.
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