Quote Originally Posted by Werker:
Locked in plays:
Ravens -6.5
Packers -14.5
Eagles -1
(note: all my rankings come from FootballOutsiders)
Ok, so I bought into the Eagles hype at the beginning of the season. And they account for 2 of my 9 losses this year, so I'm not exactly fond of them lately, but here I am backing them again. I just got through watching the game on Short Cuts, and I have to tell you, the Eagles of the 2nd half of that game looked as good as I've seen them look this year.
The Redskins have a solid defense, but they are overrated as a defensive unit so far. Sure they have 15 sacks on the year, but 7 of them came against the Rams who had possibly the worst performance of any offensive line this year other than the Bears on MNF last week. Bradford took 5 sacks when the Skins rushed 4 or fewer. It was ridiculous. They actually have 14 of their 15 sacks against bottom 10 SOS adjusted ranked o-lines for pass protection. Against the one top 10 o-line in pass protection, they got one sack (Dallas is ranked #4, and not coincidentally it was their only loss). The Eagles are ranked #7. They haven't faced a QB like Vick this year (and for future reference, I will be analyzing how teams did against Cam and maybe Tebow to think about how they will do against Vick and vice versa). I doubt if they will get more than one sack against him, if only because of his escapability.
I can't say enough good things about LeSean McCoy. He's doing everything well right now, and the Redskins haven't faced anyone playing at close to his level right now. And they also haven't seen a receiving corps that is as talented as the Eagles yet.
Where the Eagles have been losing games is on defense. They've had major problems stopping the run. It's my belief that this will stop this week. Rex Grossman played very well against the Giants (who were still reeling from losing 27 CBs in the preseason). He had a 110.5 QB rating. Since then he's had ratings of 74.9, 77.5, and 48.5. He's just not very good, and he makes lots of mistakes. He has a 6/6 TD/INT ratio since that Giant game. I think Andy Reid is going to stack the box against whoever is running the ball (Torrain looks likely) and dare Grossman to throw on them. And I'd be shocked if he has fewer than 2 INTs. Moss, Gaffney, Cooley and Davis are hardly unstoppable.
I think the Eagles match up well against the Redskins and take them down to keep themselves remotely in it.
I should probably develop a less stream of consciousness way of writing my rationales, but as always, I'd love to hear more relevant information or questions about it.
You make good points on this game although I disagree with your assertion that the Redskins haven't faced anyone like Vick this year in-as-much as it doesn't matter as they very painfully remember facing him late last year on MNF when Vick had a game-of-a-lifetime and Phil embarrassed Wa at Wa to the tune of 59-28. So they are very familiar with Vick and I'm sure they will have adjustments made.
I've been betting against Phil almost every week starting week 2 @ Atl. I felt like I got lucky with Atl that week but I was shocked to see Phil lose to NYG at home as -9 fav (lost with the Eagles on that one even on a teaser because I thought I would see a pissed off Eagle team which blew the Atl game and would take it out on NYG). That opened my eyes as to how over-rated Phil really is and how messed up the lines are.
Against SF, I thought the -10 was way out of line so I won taking the niners. Sure thought I had a loser early on in that one though....
Against Buf, I thought it was ludicrous that a 1-3 team should be favored against a 3-1 team on the road so I won with Buf.
Phil has played some excellent halfs of football (niner 1st half, falcons 1st half, Buf 2nd half) but they haven't really played a great complete game and they are making just way too many mistakes. They're tearing up the field with offensive production but then they keep shooting themselves in the foot (understatement) with turnovers. Can a team that is making so many mistakes (-10 turnover differential) suddenly and completely clean up their game in one week? And what about the offensive line (horrible)? Tough questions....talent is there but can they do it?...anyway, you've got me second-guessing myself now.
I was expecting Wa to be a 3 point fav (at least) being 3-1 vs Phil 1-4 and at home and coming off a bye...yet I see the line is still skewed towards Phil. My initial gut reaction was to go with Wa and in fact I do have a 10 pt teaser Chi+17 (MN - winner), Wa +10, Balt +3. I am absolutely positive that Balt will be a winner and getting 10 with Wa looks golden but after reading your thoughts I'm now wondering if that is the weak link in my teaser.
I know that Phil does indeed have a great deal of talent and I think it is "possible" that Phil could put a beat down on Wa like it did late last year. Their situation is absolutely desperate and they should be pulling all the stops and doing anything and everything to win this week. They are like the proverbial wild animal backed into the corner...dangerous! Also, -1 looks reasonable finally only in terms of being a favorite (but they SHOULDN'T be favored!).
I think I'm going to make a teaser with Balt and Phil and try to pull off a middle with Wa +10 and Phil +5. As mentioned, I feel very strongly about Balt this week. I could "cover" my teaser with a straight bet on Phil but I would feel like an absolute idiot if Wa wins as I initially expected. At least with +5 Phil can lose but cover...
Anyway, good luck with your plays...I think Phil is a gutsy pick all considered.
Also, compliments on your write ups, I think your "stream of consciousness way of writing" is just fine....