Week 7 Props n Plays

Not a very good week 6. Luckily we hit Trey McBride TD +220 yesterday to make it not a complete disaster but it we ended up in the red. Missed Andrews prop by 1 measly yard, missed Ayomanor by 3 yds. Chargers up 13 late and in complete control and then Chargered away the cover. But we were dead on target with Seattle and LV so that was good. On to week 7 and greener pastures...

CIN +6 and -2 (+250) - Thursday night tasty home dog. Flacco found a rhythm in the 2nd half @ Green Bay, but the biggest positive was Cincys huge improvement on defense. This team was motivated and playing hard out there and was impressive in how they limited Green Bay and kept themselves in the game. If you watched the Pittsburgh game, yuck. Cleveland was a completely disaster and yet Pittsburgh could barely do anything. If they were playing even a semi competent team they wouldve been cooked. I am not impressed with Pittsburgh AT ALL. Laying 6 pts on the road in division on a short week is a joke with this team. They just laid 6 at home vs Cleveland and now they are going on the road laying 6 at Cincy? The final score is indicative of Cleveland just not being able to score in the red zone whatsoever due to incompetence. This was a 2 TD blowout in score only. 

More to come but had to get this in as I'm sure this will come down. I wouldnt be surprised if it closes at 3. 

Added: 

HOU -2 (+175) - Going alt line here. We hit Seattle alt line over JAX last week, and now going against Seattle as they make their long cross country trip back to play at home against Houston. Houston coming off bye with a very solid defense and a little offensive spark after blowing out the Ravens. Seattles defense is good but their secondary is vulnerable as Baker Mayfield showed us. Stroud should have a very strong passing day. I think Houston wins 24-19

Noah Fant o24.5 rec yds - Flacco loves throwing to TEs and TEs have been doing very well against Pittsburgh. Fant should be busy. 

Drew Sample TD +1300 - Going small of course on this one for huge plus money. Last week Tanner Hudson caught a TD from Flacco. Drew Sample has gotten quite a few TDs of his own in this offense over the years. We'll take a shot that its his turn this week when they need a sneaky option from 10 yds and in to beat the Pittsburgh D. Hudson and Fant are live as well but I'm not playing all 3, so we will hope we got the right one w the biggest plus money. I would bet one of these 3 TEs score Thursday. BONUS - Drew Sample 1st TD +7500, why not?

Another note about this Seattle/HOU game. Seattle has been absolutely terrible rushing the ball. For some reason they continue to play Charbonnet 50% even though Walker is far and away the better back. Darnold has been good, but basically their entire offense is JSN. Houston has the defense to lock down JSN and then they are in trouble unless Horton and Arroyo and Barner step up big. 

Houston has the multiple offensive weapons to beat this Seattle defense like Tampa did. The only question mark is will Stroud have enough time? I think he will. 

And that’s the big question and the deciding factor. In every Houston game. CJ stroud has regressed big time because of the awful offensive line that he plays behind. Two years ago I thought Houston was a Super Bowl caliber team. Right now I’m suffering as a Houston division winner future holder (pretty large too). But I’m willing to take 3.5 and bet against Sam Darnold in a great spot for Houston. GL and good analysis 

Added:

God help me....but its gone too far.

NYJ -1.5 (+125) - Carolina laying points on the road? No, no, no. Jets win this game. The offensive line should dominate Carolina and allow them to run successfully and do just enough offensively to win this game. Jets also looked better on defense. Did the Broncos suck horribly on offense? Yes. But if you watched that game you could see a fire and a pride in the Jet defense that didnt exist in the 2 previous games. This is maybe the best opportunity the Jets will have all year ro win a game. 

@brn2loslive2win

Thanks man lets get this 

@Yanasaur

 Do you have an opinion on the Denver/NYG game? 

Imo the win over Philly last week will give many a false sense of confidence in the G-men. Lots of public money will roll in on the Giants + a TD or more. 

The truth is that Philly didn’t even show up for that game. It didn’t even look like they wanted to be there for a majority of the time. Not to mention that Philly is very much like the Bills right now in that they’re a talented team/good organization that can’t get its head out of its ass at the moment. So I’m not putting a lot of stock in that W. 

Then there’s the Denver angle of which they embarrassed themselves in a 2 point victory over a team that finished the game with less than 150 yards of offense.  I know you’ve been backing the Jets lately so we may differ in opinion on that game…

Anyway it just seems like both the Broncos and Giants should head in the direction of what they really are this week. I’m thinking it’s a defensive battle where Dart comes back down to earth, maybe turns it over a couple times and the Giants struggle to get in the endzone. Denver at home should get some traction on offense and look to show KC that they’re a contender. I’m thinking 23-13 or 27-17 type of game where Denver can win by 10+. Any thoughts?

@brn2loslive2win

I agree with you 100% on this Denver game. Giants outperformed vs an Eagles team that looked lazy and disinterested and was horrible on defense. Denver wasnt happy to be playing in London and gave a subpar effort vs a team they didnt need to do much against to beat. 

The Giants are not ready to go on the road and win in Denver. This Denver defense is going to give Dart a lot more trouble than Philly did and hes not going to be able to run all over the place. By the way he is taking a ton of big hits. Even Fields wasnt able to escape the pocket and run much in that London game. 

The Eagles also have no clue what they want to do offensively. Denver has looked bad on offense at times but they dont have an identity issue.

Denver blows them out in my opinion. 30-16

@Yanasaur

 
Looks like the oddsmakers are in agreement too. To open up at -7 with the Jaxson Dart hype and the very lackluster performance from Denver last week tells us quite a bit. 

Good stuff man! I disagree that Steelers are overrated as they were missing CB Porter and LB Highsmith and few games, which were huge losses and they dominated Cleveland, even keeping Judkins in check. I think this is definitely a good spot for Bengals, but they will likely be without Hendrickson this game, their only above-average defender. Bengals game feels like a FG game and just weird suspicion Bengals pull off the upset.

Agree Denver by DD.

I like this. Bryce Young on the road has been awful. 

Good Luck 

@mchriste619

@undermysac