yards per game allowed: 20 yards per play allowed: 25 3rd down efficieny: 20 scoring: 27 pass yards per game: 24 yards per pass attempt allowed: 29
That pass D can’t afford spotting over a TD to Eli, Cruz, Nicks, and Randle. NYG D is no better, but they get the points..
Stl @ Hou (-7) Hou has outgained their opponent by an average of 130 yards per game, but have lost by an average of 9 points per game. They are 0-5 ATS. The Shaub debacle is overshadowing how good their D is playing. They’re #1 in total yards allowed, and #1 in pass yards allowed. But the mismatch that will be exposed here is Hou’s 8th rush offense vs Stl 23rd rush D. I think they get back to basics and feed Foster and Tate for big yards and their pissed off D smothers Stl’s subpar O..
[The following trend fits into the next two games. “Winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4 over the last 23 years are 21-4 ATS. And 2 of the 4 losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.” (courtesy of BigNiner)]
Phi @ TB (+2) Situational bet here. TB off a bye + Phi’s 3rd straight road game after Den and NYG. In the D categories I look at, TB is 13th or better and Phi 19th or worse.
Defensive Rankings: Phi/TB
Yards per game:31/13 Yards per play:22/6 3rd down efficiency:24/8 Scoring:30/9 Yards per pass attempt:23/8 Red zone scoring: 19/2
Pit (+2) @ NYJ Pit off a bye. At this point it’s better to back them on the road, without home pressure. Geno looked great on National TV on the road where their opponent “never loses.” Only thing is, Atl is in the bottom quarter of most defensive categories. They were starting four rookies I think. Pit’s D isn’t what it used to be, but they are veterans vs a rookie, and it’s Coach Lebeau vs a suddenly more confident rookie who is still going to turn it over a lot this year. Lebeau is 16-2 vs rookie QBs..
AZ (+11) @ SF AZ is 2nd is rush yards allowed, 3rd per attempt. We all know SF has passing problems, and they don’t figure to get better this week vs. Patrick Peterson and the Honey Badger. This is too many points vs a division opponent who matches up well vs what you do best..
yards per game allowed: 20 yards per play allowed: 25 3rd down efficieny: 20 scoring: 27 pass yards per game: 24 yards per pass attempt allowed: 29
That pass D can’t afford spotting over a TD to Eli, Cruz, Nicks, and Randle. NYG D is no better, but they get the points..
Stl @ Hou (-7) Hou has outgained their opponent by an average of 130 yards per game, but have lost by an average of 9 points per game. They are 0-5 ATS. The Shaub debacle is overshadowing how good their D is playing. They’re #1 in total yards allowed, and #1 in pass yards allowed. But the mismatch that will be exposed here is Hou’s 8th rush offense vs Stl 23rd rush D. I think they get back to basics and feed Foster and Tate for big yards and their pissed off D smothers Stl’s subpar O..
[The following trend fits into the next two games. “Winless underdogs off a bye who are at least 0-4 over the last 23 years are 21-4 ATS. And 2 of the 4 losses were by just 1 point on the closing line.” (courtesy of BigNiner)]
Phi @ TB (+2) Situational bet here. TB off a bye + Phi’s 3rd straight road game after Den and NYG. In the D categories I look at, TB is 13th or better and Phi 19th or worse.
Defensive Rankings: Phi/TB
Yards per game:31/13 Yards per play:22/6 3rd down efficiency:24/8 Scoring:30/9 Yards per pass attempt:23/8 Red zone scoring: 19/2
Pit (+2) @ NYJ Pit off a bye. At this point it’s better to back them on the road, without home pressure. Geno looked great on National TV on the road where their opponent “never loses.” Only thing is, Atl is in the bottom quarter of most defensive categories. They were starting four rookies I think. Pit’s D isn’t what it used to be, but they are veterans vs a rookie, and it’s Coach Lebeau vs a suddenly more confident rookie who is still going to turn it over a lot this year. Lebeau is 16-2 vs rookie QBs..
AZ (+11) @ SF AZ is 2nd is rush yards allowed, 3rd per attempt. We all know SF has passing problems, and they don’t figure to get better this week vs. Patrick Peterson and the Honey Badger. This is too many points vs a division opponent who matches up well vs what you do best..
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