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All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Week 6: 4 team 13 point teaser (4-1 on season + 3.25 units)

12 Next Last»
dl36
billsneedhelp
Wizerguy
Howard_Jughes
hyvong
...
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12 Next Last»
 
dl36
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:18 AM ET #1

I knew it from the beginning of last week that it did not look good, I only regret that I had not gone minimum bet...  I have gone 4-0 on teasers in the first 4 weeks a few times before... I think once the bye start the and choices decreasing...  I have also gone 0-4 in weeks 5-8 before after going 4-0 also...

But the angle that have found to do well is playing a home dog off of a bye and I always increase my bet when there is one of those games present...

hoping to bounce back from last week... here we go...

so the homedog/byedog combo is the only angle I know of that hits about 90%... home/away, fav/dog, conference/nonconference all hit about 84% but the home dog coming off of a bye has a solid record at I remember at one point going over three seasons with out failing...

WAS +14.5...  I am guessing this line will fall below 14 by game time, but the situation is there as Was is a homedog coming off of a bye.... now if this line goes to pick em, then I will automatically down grade this pick... but until then this is the base game of the teaser...

any more ideas or suggestions?
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I knew it from the beginning of last week that it did not look good, I only regret that I had not gone minimum bet...  I have gone 4-0 on teasers in the first 4 weeks a few times before... I think once the bye start the and choices decreasing...  I have also gone 0-4 in weeks 5-8 before after going 4-0 also...

But the angle that have found to do well is playing a home dog off of a bye and I always increase my bet when there is one of those games present...

hoping to bounce back from last week... here we go...

so the homedog/byedog combo is the only angle I know of that hits about 90%... home/away, fav/dog, conference/nonconference all hit about 84% but the home dog coming off of a bye has a solid record at I remember at one point going over three seasons with out failing...

WAS +14.5...  I am guessing this line will fall below 14 by game time, but the situation is there as Was is a homedog coming off of a bye.... now if this line goes to pick em, then I will automatically down grade this pick... but until then this is the base game of the teaser...

any more ideas or suggestions?
 
dl36
dl36
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Posts: 27850
Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:28 AM ET #2

GB and PIT look like no brainers for the +13 points ATS...

Although both games also have the formula with the dogs where the points their are getting +13 points ATS is more then half of the total o/u which seems like good value...

So this is what I got so far...

WAS +14.5
GB + 0.5
GB -2

any more ideas or suggestions?
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GB and PIT look like no brainers for the +13 points ATS...

Although both games also have the formula with the dogs where the points their are getting +13 points ATS is more then half of the total o/u which seems like good value...

So this is what I got so far...

WAS +14.5
GB + 0.5
GB -2

any more ideas or suggestions?
 
billsneedhelp
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:30 AM ET #3

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

I knew it from the beginning of last week that it did not look good, I only regret that I had not gone minimum bet...  I have gone 4-0 on teasers in the first 4 weeks a few times before... I think once the bye start the and choices decreasing...  I have also gone 0-4 in weeks 5-8 before after going 4-0 also...

But the angle that have found to do well is playing a home dog off of a bye and I always increase my bet when there is one of those games present...

hoping to bounce back from last week... here we go...

so the homedog/byedog combo is the only angle I know of that hits about 90%... home/away, fav/dog, conference/nonconference all hit about 84% but the home dog coming off of a bye has a solid record at I remember at one point going over three seasons with out failing...

WAS +14.5...  I am guessing this line will fall below 14 by game time, but the situation is there as Was is a homedog coming off of a bye.... now if this line goes to pick em, then I will automatically down grade this pick... but until then this is the base game of the teaser...

any more ideas or suggestions?


90% really? Is that ats or after a 13pt tease? Where did you get that stat?

What are your other 3 plays in the 13pt teaser?
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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:

I knew it from the beginning of last week that it did not look good, I only regret that I had not gone minimum bet...  I have gone 4-0 on teasers in the first 4 weeks a few times before... I think once the bye start the and choices decreasing...  I have also gone 0-4 in weeks 5-8 before after going 4-0 also...

But the angle that have found to do well is playing a home dog off of a bye and I always increase my bet when there is one of those games present...

hoping to bounce back from last week... here we go...

so the homedog/byedog combo is the only angle I know of that hits about 90%... home/away, fav/dog, conference/nonconference all hit about 84% but the home dog coming off of a bye has a solid record at I remember at one point going over three seasons with out failing...

WAS +14.5...  I am guessing this line will fall below 14 by game time, but the situation is there as Was is a homedog coming off of a bye.... now if this line goes to pick em, then I will automatically down grade this pick... but until then this is the base game of the teaser...

any more ideas or suggestions?


90% really? Is that ats or after a 13pt tease? Where did you get that stat?

What are your other 3 plays in the 13pt teaser?
 
Wizerguy
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:42 AM ET #4

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Howard_Jughes
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:45 AM ET #5

jax +26 at pittsburg, carolina +19 at atlanta, buffalo +16 at giants, miami +22 at jets.

if you think miami is going to lay down, you could do new orleans +8.5 at tampa bay instead.

 

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jax +26 at pittsburg, carolina +19 at atlanta, buffalo +16 at giants, miami +22 at jets.

if you think miami is going to lay down, you could do new orleans +8.5 at tampa bay instead.

 

 
hyvong
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 7:30 PM ET #6

I like Cin, No, plus your GB and Was

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I like Cin, No, plus your GB and Was

 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 9:10 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:



90% really? Is that ats or after a 13pt tease? Where did you get that stat?

What are your other 3 plays in the 13pt teaser?


+ 13points ATS...  everything on this thread is capping in that manner...

Considering that if you randomly were to pick +13 points ATS that you should hit about 80-85%, 90% is not huge, but it is an edge
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Quote Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:



90% really? Is that ats or after a 13pt tease? Where did you get that stat?

What are your other 3 plays in the 13pt teaser?


+ 13points ATS...  everything on this thread is capping in that manner...

Considering that if you randomly were to pick +13 points ATS that you should hit about 80-85%, 90% is not huge, but it is an edge
 
phillipnorris
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Posted: Oct. 12, 2011 - 11:43 PM ET #8

Already played the following:

Packers -1.5...Steelers +1...Raiders +7.5...Saints +8.5

At the moment, the Raiders line is the only one that has changed, and I'm not sure I'd play it at +6.5.  I'm pretty confident in an outright victory, but it's a much more comforting play at +7.5. 

Others:

Washington +14.5 - Like getting spotted 2 TDs, but I'll be damned if I end up on the losing side of Philly finally figuring it out. 

Carolina +17 - This should be plenty of points, but if I could get another half a point, I'd love including backdoor Newton in a 13 point play.

Baltimore would be +5.5 and New England +6.5.  I'd much rather ML the two in a parlay or tease them 7 points and will surely do that.

Rams/Packers u60.5 - I can't see the Rams scoring much on the Packers since their receivers are horribly inconsistent.  Steven Jackson isn't going to run over this defense.  The Packers won't have a problem scoring, but I'm sure they'll look to establish the ground game in the second half if/when they get out to a big lead.

Jaguars/Steelers u53.5 - See above.

49ers/Lions u59 - Lions coming off an emotional MNF win, and Niners won't want to get into a shootout with Stafford and company.  If the Niners want to have a shot at winning, they're going to bleed that clock. 

Panthers/Falcons o38 - One of these teams could very well put up 38 on their own.

Saints/Bucs o36 - I'll be at this one.  With Blount (likely) out, the Bucs only shot of keeping up with Brees is to put the game totally in Freeman's hands and try to move the chains with Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow, Preston Parker, and Arrelious Benn.  Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin aren't scaring anyone on the Saints defense.  The Bucs don't know how to make big plays on defense, so I expect Brees to light them up for at least 27 points.  I think even the Bucs can manage 10 points, especially if they throw as much as I think they will. 

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Already played the following:

Packers -1.5...Steelers +1...Raiders +7.5...Saints +8.5

At the moment, the Raiders line is the only one that has changed, and I'm not sure I'd play it at +6.5.  I'm pretty confident in an outright victory, but it's a much more comforting play at +7.5. 

Others:

Washington +14.5 - Like getting spotted 2 TDs, but I'll be damned if I end up on the losing side of Philly finally figuring it out. 

Carolina +17 - This should be plenty of points, but if I could get another half a point, I'd love including backdoor Newton in a 13 point play.

Baltimore would be +5.5 and New England +6.5.  I'd much rather ML the two in a parlay or tease them 7 points and will surely do that.

Rams/Packers u60.5 - I can't see the Rams scoring much on the Packers since their receivers are horribly inconsistent.  Steven Jackson isn't going to run over this defense.  The Packers won't have a problem scoring, but I'm sure they'll look to establish the ground game in the second half if/when they get out to a big lead.

Jaguars/Steelers u53.5 - See above.

49ers/Lions u59 - Lions coming off an emotional MNF win, and Niners won't want to get into a shootout with Stafford and company.  If the Niners want to have a shot at winning, they're going to bleed that clock. 

Panthers/Falcons o38 - One of these teams could very well put up 38 on their own.

Saints/Bucs o36 - I'll be at this one.  With Blount (likely) out, the Bucs only shot of keeping up with Brees is to put the game totally in Freeman's hands and try to move the chains with Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow, Preston Parker, and Arrelious Benn.  Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin aren't scaring anyone on the Saints defense.  The Bucs don't know how to make big plays on defense, so I expect Brees to light them up for at least 27 points.  I think even the Bucs can manage 10 points, especially if they throw as much as I think they will. 

 
MrBogey
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Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 2:26 AM ET #9

is Blount out for sure?
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is Blount out for sure?
 
Riceboi
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Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 2:33 AM ET #10

I pretty much like the strong favs in the tease or even a ML parlay whatever pays better.

Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Pats
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I pretty much like the strong favs in the tease or even a ML parlay whatever pays better.

Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Pats
 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 13, 2011 - 4:40 AM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by Howard_Jughes:

jax +26 at pittsburg, carolina +19 at atlanta, buffalo +16 at giants, miami +22 at jets.

if you think miami is going to lay down, you could do new orleans +8.5 at tampa bay instead.

 



Interesting choices in dogs...

CAR at that number sounds good, especially against an ATL who's largest margin of victory is 4... There is also value in +19 in that ATL has scored 14 points or less in 3 out of their 5 games...

BUF has gone over 4/5 times (depending on your line, missing the over by one point)... and NYG also over 4/5 times (missing by 2-3 points depending on your line)...  So I am thinking this will be a higher scoring more variable game to just stay away from...

Although MIA is coming off of a bye, they are not the home team... Also am thinking that NYJ has gotten through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule and this might be a game where they start to build momentum... 

however over the last two season MIA is 4-0 +13 points ATS and 3-1 SU against NYJ... +22 might be a nice number
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Quote Originally Posted by Howard_Jughes:

jax +26 at pittsburg, carolina +19 at atlanta, buffalo +16 at giants, miami +22 at jets.

if you think miami is going to lay down, you could do new orleans +8.5 at tampa bay instead.

 



Interesting choices in dogs...

CAR at that number sounds good, especially against an ATL who's largest margin of victory is 4... There is also value in +19 in that ATL has scored 14 points or less in 3 out of their 5 games...

BUF has gone over 4/5 times (depending on your line, missing the over by one point)... and NYG also over 4/5 times (missing by 2-3 points depending on your line)...  So I am thinking this will be a higher scoring more variable game to just stay away from...

Although MIA is coming off of a bye, they are not the home team... Also am thinking that NYJ has gotten through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule and this might be a game where they start to build momentum... 

however over the last two season MIA is 4-0 +13 points ATS and 3-1 SU against NYJ... +22 might be a nice number
 
kvs23
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 2:51 AM ET #12

DL36 - I know you don't LOOK at totals - but c'mon.  Look at teasing overs last week (and all hit or all but one?).  Same last week of preseason.  Just think about it - be flexible to throw one if u can get critical numbers (like 46.5 to 33.5 - etc)....
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DL36 - I know you don't LOOK at totals - but c'mon.  Look at teasing overs last week (and all hit or all but one?).  Same last week of preseason.  Just think about it - be flexible to throw one if u can get critical numbers (like 46.5 to 33.5 - etc)....
 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 4:58 AM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by hyvong:

I like Cin, No, plus your GB and Was



CIN's defense is what makes them attractive +13 points ATS... along with perception of them being a weaker team...  although they have subtracted palmer and ocho, perhaps this has helped the team overall in their identity...  they are 5-0 + 13 points ATS this season...

I like NO to win SU even though TB beat them last year in the final game of the regular season... the is also value in getting more then a TD cushion... less then a TD for crossing the zero would be far less value

CIN however is a TD fav... which kinda reminds me of the IND@TB game on monday night earlier this season and I could see myself sweating it out IND is able to put up some points early....


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Quote Originally Posted by hyvong:

I like Cin, No, plus your GB and Was



CIN's defense is what makes them attractive +13 points ATS... along with perception of them being a weaker team...  although they have subtracted palmer and ocho, perhaps this has helped the team overall in their identity...  they are 5-0 + 13 points ATS this season...

I like NO to win SU even though TB beat them last year in the final game of the regular season... the is also value in getting more then a TD cushion... less then a TD for crossing the zero would be far less value

CIN however is a TD fav... which kinda reminds me of the IND@TB game on monday night earlier this season and I could see myself sweating it out IND is able to put up some points early....


 
LeagueCapper
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 5:35 AM ET #14

The 3 you have all look solid so far, add the Ravens at home at +5/+6. Ravens are 8-2 ATS coming off a bye one of the best records coming out of a bye. In Baltimore against a Houston team that has their best offensive and defensive players out for the game. (Andre Johnson and Mario Williams)

Should be a comfortable win for the Ravens beating the original spread but they definitely should be added for 13 points. Giants +10 is also good. They only lost to the seahawks last week cuz the giants rely on their run game, seahawks suprisingly have one of the best run defenses in the league. Bills have one of the worst. I expect a bounceback for the Giants here. BOL
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The 3 you have all look solid so far, add the Ravens at home at +5/+6. Ravens are 8-2 ATS coming off a bye one of the best records coming out of a bye. In Baltimore against a Houston team that has their best offensive and defensive players out for the game. (Andre Johnson and Mario Williams)

Should be a comfortable win for the Ravens beating the original spread but they definitely should be added for 13 points. Giants +10 is also good. They only lost to the seahawks last week cuz the giants rely on their run game, seahawks suprisingly have one of the best run defenses in the league. Bills have one of the worst. I expect a bounceback for the Giants here. BOL
 
deichkind2k1
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 5:37 AM ET #15

Locked this one in for week 6:

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) for Game (+103)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.5) for Game (+104) Washington Redskins (+14) for Game (+105) Baltimore Ravens  (+4) for Game (+112) Pending

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Locked this one in for week 6:

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) for Game (+103)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.5) for Game (+104) Washington Redskins (+14) for Game (+105) Baltimore Ravens  (+4) for Game (+112) Pending

 
Howard_Jughes
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 6:54 AM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by dl36:



Interesting choices in dogs...

CAR at that number sounds good, especially against an ATL who's largest margin of victory is 4... There is also value in +19 in that ATL has scored 14 points or less in 3 out of their 5 games...

BUF has gone over 4/5 times (depending on your line, missing the over by one point)... and NYG also over 4/5 times (missing by 2-3 points depending on your line)...  So I am thinking this will be a higher scoring more variable game to just stay away from...

Although MIA is coming off of a bye, they are not the home team... Also am thinking that NYJ has gotten through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule and this might be a game where they start to build momentum... 

however over the last two season MIA is 4-0 +13 points ATS and 3-1 SU against NYJ... +22 might be a nice number

 

I like Buffalo to beat the Giants straight up.  The concern I would have is that Pittsburg replicates its blowout of the Titans against a Jags team in disarray, though this is mitigated by Del Rio's history against the Steelers which is quite exceptional.

I used to love 13 point teasers, but I've been burned too many times and cant handle the angst of a blowout screwing the teased parlay.  :-)

 

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Quote Originally Posted by dl36:



Interesting choices in dogs...

CAR at that number sounds good, especially against an ATL who's largest margin of victory is 4... There is also value in +19 in that ATL has scored 14 points or less in 3 out of their 5 games...

BUF has gone over 4/5 times (depending on your line, missing the over by one point)... and NYG also over 4/5 times (missing by 2-3 points depending on your line)...  So I am thinking this will be a higher scoring more variable game to just stay away from...

Although MIA is coming off of a bye, they are not the home team... Also am thinking that NYJ has gotten through a pretty brutal stretch in their schedule and this might be a game where they start to build momentum... 

however over the last two season MIA is 4-0 +13 points ATS and 3-1 SU against NYJ... +22 might be a nice number

 

I like Buffalo to beat the Giants straight up.  The concern I would have is that Pittsburg replicates its blowout of the Titans against a Jags team in disarray, though this is mitigated by Del Rio's history against the Steelers which is quite exceptional.

I used to love 13 point teasers, but I've been burned too many times and cant handle the angst of a blowout screwing the teased parlay.  :-)

 

 
gmitran
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Posted: Oct. 14, 2011 - 6:10 PM ET #17

Boys +19.5 = Romo might lose game for u but he'll keep it close.  He usually bounces back after bad game and Boys has had a wk to stew over that loss so think they come out strong here.  Can see NE D allowing back-door cover if game out of hand.

Bal +5 =  Crossing 0 but hard to see Bal losing by 4+.  Bal is usually good after bye wk.  Hous is hurting and Bal getting healthy after bye.

GB -1.5 = I think GB will be flat for this game and Stl up for this but don't think they'll lose or tease Stl and get close to 4 TD's.

If u like home dog off bye then Was +16.  One thing scary about Philly is if they're up, they won't take foot off the pedal as way of venting frustration for last 4 wks.

Pitts come back strong last wk but IIRC, Del Rio has had really good success against Pitts for some reason.

GL!
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Boys +19.5 = Romo might lose game for u but he'll keep it close.  He usually bounces back after bad game and Boys has had a wk to stew over that loss so think they come out strong here.  Can see NE D allowing back-door cover if game out of hand.

Bal +5 =  Crossing 0 but hard to see Bal losing by 4+.  Bal is usually good after bye wk.  Hous is hurting and Bal getting healthy after bye.

GB -1.5 = I think GB will be flat for this game and Stl up for this but don't think they'll lose or tease Stl and get close to 4 TD's.

If u like home dog off bye then Was +16.  One thing scary about Philly is if they're up, they won't take foot off the pedal as way of venting frustration for last 4 wks.

Pitts come back strong last wk but IIRC, Del Rio has had really good success against Pitts for some reason.

GL!
 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 15, 2011 - 7:11 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by MrBogey:

is Blount out for sure?

1-2 weeks i think
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Quote Originally Posted by MrBogey:

is Blount out for sure?

1-2 weeks i think
 
OakleyDoak
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Posted: Oct. 15, 2011 - 3:33 PM ET #19

G-Bay : To just win at home by as little of 1 - 2 pts. as of today is an absolute.No need for in-depth analysis with this,imo.(can't see a Sea-NY G scenario)
Dallas : I think NE's defense is too malleable for a QB like Romo not to be efficient and proficient throughout the entire game.PATS will probably have a tough matchup with J.Witten.D.Bryant and M.Austin look like they're going to be fine for this game,adding to the array of weapons for Dal. @ + 20-19,after a bye week,I think this is just too many points to bypass considering Dal may very well have a greater Time-of-possession ratio.(even fg's can help stay within the #)
Baltimore : They play better at home,a bye week to get players healthy,an extra week for the coordinators to prepare,and leaders like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to keep the team and young guys in particular,focused on the goal for this team. @ + 4, I'm willing to part with my $ if Houston can beat them by more than a FG.
Chicago : I like the effort they gave in the Mon.night game at Detroit.Julius Peppers has been ruled out as of last night,and this is probably attributable to
$ coming in on the Vikes,making this line Chi (- 1) as of this morning.Chicago rolled on Atlanta the first week at home and playing in national spotlight sun.night vs. a division foe should evoke a similar intensity as they displayed week 1.The Vikes spent a lot of energy last week to get their first win on the season in front of their home fans.Playing outdoors on the grass against an increasing frustrated Bears team makes me think : Chicago @ + 12-10 should be safe enough to invest in.

dl,this is fun. My record in NFL contest is terrible right now,but I do much better with teasers.(which means i'm probably wrong on at least one of these)

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G-Bay : To just win at home by as little of 1 - 2 pts. as of today is an absolute.No need for in-depth analysis with this,imo.(can't see a Sea-NY G scenario)
Dallas : I think NE's defense is too malleable for a QB like Romo not to be efficient and proficient throughout the entire game.PATS will probably have a tough matchup with J.Witten.D.Bryant and M.Austin look like they're going to be fine for this game,adding to the array of weapons for Dal. @ + 20-19,after a bye week,I think this is just too many points to bypass considering Dal may very well have a greater Time-of-possession ratio.(even fg's can help stay within the #)
Baltimore : They play better at home,a bye week to get players healthy,an extra week for the coordinators to prepare,and leaders like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to keep the team and young guys in particular,focused on the goal for this team. @ + 4, I'm willing to part with my $ if Houston can beat them by more than a FG.
Chicago : I like the effort they gave in the Mon.night game at Detroit.Julius Peppers has been ruled out as of last night,and this is probably attributable to
$ coming in on the Vikes,making this line Chi (- 1) as of this morning.Chicago rolled on Atlanta the first week at home and playing in national spotlight sun.night vs. a division foe should evoke a similar intensity as they displayed week 1.The Vikes spent a lot of energy last week to get their first win on the season in front of their home fans.Playing outdoors on the grass against an increasing frustrated Bears team makes me think : Chicago @ + 12-10 should be safe enough to invest in.

dl,this is fun. My record in NFL contest is terrible right now,but I do much better with teasers.(which means i'm probably wrong on at least one of these)

 
IgetMoney101
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Posted: Oct. 15, 2011 - 3:41 PM ET #20

Jags + 24.5   Pitt is banged up and I see a let down after the big win vs Tenn

GB -2  this is a gimme

TB +16.5  They are a tough team at home  this should be within a td

Baltimore +5  They are the 3rd best team in the league right now, hou banged up.
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Jags + 24.5   Pitt is banged up and I see a let down after the big win vs Tenn

GB -2  this is a gimme

TB +16.5  They are a tough team at home  this should be within a td

Baltimore +5  They are the 3rd best team in the league right now, hou banged up.
 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 2:24 AM ET #21

Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi:

I pretty much like the strong favs in the tease or even a ML parlay whatever pays better.

Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Pats


I would say to always play what ever the best odds are...  I do think in teasing favs there is significant value over the ML in covering the 3 and 7 when you can get it...
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Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi:

I pretty much like the strong favs in the tease or even a ML parlay whatever pays better.

Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Pats


I would say to always play what ever the best odds are...  I do think in teasing favs there is significant value over the ML in covering the 3 and 7 when you can get it...
 
dl36
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Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 5:52 AM ET #22

Quote Originally Posted by phillipnorris:

Already played the following:

Packers -1.5...Steelers +1...Raiders +7.5...Saints +8.5

At the moment, the Raiders line is the only one that has changed, and I'm not sure I'd play it at +6.5.  I'm pretty confident in an outright victory, but it's a much more comforting play at +7.5. 

Others:

Washington +14.5 - Like getting spotted 2 TDs, but I'll be damned if I end up on the losing side of Philly finally figuring it out. 

Carolina +17 - This should be plenty of points, but if I could get another half a point, I'd love including backdoor Newton in a 13 point play.

Baltimore would be +5.5 and New England +6.5.  I'd much rather ML the two in a parlay or tease them 7 points and will surely do that.

Rams/Packers u60.5 - I can't see the Rams scoring much on the Packers since their receivers are horribly inconsistent.  Steven Jackson isn't going to run over this defense.  The Packers won't have a problem scoring, but I'm sure they'll look to establish the ground game in the second half if/when they get out to a big lead.

Jaguars/Steelers u53.5 - See above.

49ers/Lions u59 - Lions coming off an emotional MNF win, and Niners won't want to get into a shootout with Stafford and company.  If the Niners want to have a shot at winning, they're going to bleed that clock. 

Panthers/Falcons o38 - One of these teams could very well put up 38 on their own.

Saints/Bucs o36 - I'll be at this one.  With Blount (likely) out, the Bucs only shot of keeping up with Brees is to put the game totally in Freeman's hands and try to move the chains with Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow, Preston Parker, and Arrelious Benn.  Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin aren't scaring anyone on the Saints defense.  The Bucs don't know how to make big plays on defense, so I expect Brees to light them up for at least 27 points.  I think even the Bucs can manage 10 points, especially if they throw as much as I think they will. 



you got some nice numbers with OAK and NO... I actually like No as a SU winner also but the covering the 7 is nice with their ability to play from behind....I would add them, but I have them at +7 and OAK under 7...




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Quote Originally Posted by phillipnorris:

Already played the following:

Packers -1.5...Steelers +1...Raiders +7.5...Saints +8.5

At the moment, the Raiders line is the only one that has changed, and I'm not sure I'd play it at +6.5.  I'm pretty confident in an outright victory, but it's a much more comforting play at +7.5. 

Others:

Washington +14.5 - Like getting spotted 2 TDs, but I'll be damned if I end up on the losing side of Philly finally figuring it out. 

Carolina +17 - This should be plenty of points, but if I could get another half a point, I'd love including backdoor Newton in a 13 point play.

Baltimore would be +5.5 and New England +6.5.  I'd much rather ML the two in a parlay or tease them 7 points and will surely do that.

Rams/Packers u60.5 - I can't see the Rams scoring much on the Packers since their receivers are horribly inconsistent.  Steven Jackson isn't going to run over this defense.  The Packers won't have a problem scoring, but I'm sure they'll look to establish the ground game in the second half if/when they get out to a big lead.

Jaguars/Steelers u53.5 - See above.

49ers/Lions u59 - Lions coming off an emotional MNF win, and Niners won't want to get into a shootout with Stafford and company.  If the Niners want to have a shot at winning, they're going to bleed that clock. 

Panthers/Falcons o38 - One of these teams could very well put up 38 on their own.

Saints/Bucs o36 - I'll be at this one.  With Blount (likely) out, the Bucs only shot of keeping up with Brees is to put the game totally in Freeman's hands and try to move the chains with Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow, Preston Parker, and Arrelious Benn.  Earnest Graham and Kregg Lumpkin aren't scaring anyone on the Saints defense.  The Bucs don't know how to make big plays on defense, so I expect Brees to light them up for at least 27 points.  I think even the Bucs can manage 10 points, especially if they throw as much as I think they will. 



you got some nice numbers with OAK and NO... I actually like No as a SU winner also but the covering the 7 is nice with their ability to play from behind....I would add them, but I have them at +7 and OAK under 7...




 
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Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 5:53 AM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

The 3 you have all look solid so far, add the Ravens at home at +5/+6. Ravens are 8-2 ATS coming off a bye one of the best records coming out of a bye. In Baltimore against a Houston team that has their best offensive and defensive players out for the game. (Andre Johnson and Mario Williams)

Should be a comfortable win for the Ravens beating the original spread but they definitely should be added for 13 points. Giants +10 is also good. They only lost to the seahawks last week cuz the giants rely on their run game, seahawks suprisingly have one of the best run defenses in the league. Bills have one of the worst. I expect a bounceback for the Giants here. BOL


I will consider BAL.. they are a good team +13 points ATS
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Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

The 3 you have all look solid so far, add the Ravens at home at +5/+6. Ravens are 8-2 ATS coming off a bye one of the best records coming out of a bye. In Baltimore against a Houston team that has their best offensive and defensive players out for the game. (Andre Johnson and Mario Williams)

Should be a comfortable win for the Ravens beating the original spread but they definitely should be added for 13 points. Giants +10 is also good. They only lost to the seahawks last week cuz the giants rely on their run game, seahawks suprisingly have one of the best run defenses in the league. Bills have one of the worst. I expect a bounceback for the Giants here. BOL


I will consider BAL.. they are a good team +13 points ATS
 
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Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 5:54 AM ET #24

Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Boys +19.5 = Romo might lose game for u but he'll keep it close.  He usually bounces back after bad game and Boys has had a wk to stew over that loss so think they come out strong here.  Can see NE D allowing back-door cover if game out of hand.

Bal +5 =  Crossing 0 but hard to see Bal losing by 4+.  Bal is usually good after bye wk.  Hous is hurting and Bal getting healthy after bye.

GB -1.5 = I think GB will be flat for this game and Stl up for this but don't think they'll lose or tease Stl and get close to 4 TD's.

If u like home dog off bye then Was +16.  One thing scary about Philly is if they're up, they won't take foot off the pedal as way of venting frustration for last 4 wks.

Pitts come back strong last wk but IIRC, Del Rio has had really good success against Pitts for some reason.

GL!


I agree with you about the scariness of PHI, I guess I think similarly with NE in terms of potential for blow out
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Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:

Boys +19.5 = Romo might lose game for u but he'll keep it close.  He usually bounces back after bad game and Boys has had a wk to stew over that loss so think they come out strong here.  Can see NE D allowing back-door cover if game out of hand.

Bal +5 =  Crossing 0 but hard to see Bal losing by 4+.  Bal is usually good after bye wk.  Hous is hurting and Bal getting healthy after bye.

GB -1.5 = I think GB will be flat for this game and Stl up for this but don't think they'll lose or tease Stl and get close to 4 TD's.

If u like home dog off bye then Was +16.  One thing scary about Philly is if they're up, they won't take foot off the pedal as way of venting frustration for last 4 wks.

Pitts come back strong last wk but IIRC, Del Rio has had really good success against Pitts for some reason.

GL!


I agree with you about the scariness of PHI, I guess I think similarly with NE in terms of potential for blow out
 
 
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Posted: Oct. 16, 2011 - 5:55 AM ET #25

Quote Originally Posted by deichkind2k1:

Locked this one in for week 6:

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) for Game (+103)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.5) for Game (+104) Washington Redskins (+14) for Game (+105) Baltimore Ravens  (+4) for Game (+112)

I am likely going to play this exact teaser
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Quote Originally Posted by deichkind2k1:

Locked this one in for week 6:

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) for Game (+103)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+0.5) for Game (+104) Washington Redskins (+14) for Game (+105) Baltimore Ravens  (+4) for Game (+112)

I am likely going to play this exact teaser
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