week 2

3-4 STD, -2.2 units

Our divisional dog week 1 angle crashed and burned with losses on Falcons, Seahawks, Bears and a win on Cleveland.

Gambling gods will send us a lucky win or two after our week 1 debacle.

Watched Bears/Vikings game with interest....as I did put a bet on Vikes at last minute that I didn't post, that looked hopeless for most of the game....until it wasn't.

Perhaps JJ McCarthy is one of those quarterbacks that is a winner.....he'll never throw the pretty ball like Sam Darnold, but whereas Darnold found a way to lose a winnable game on Sunday, McCarthy figured out a way to win when it looked pretty abysmal for most of the game.

Winners at the quarterback position are rare, and a team is super lucky if they happen to luck out and have one....the winners that elevated their team that come to mind, going waaaay back.....Jim Krieg, Jim McMahon, Steve Young, Joe Kapp, Brady, Josh Allen,...there's probably a few more that I don't recall.

And changing sports, going way back....no one would argue that Bill Russell wasn't as good of a basketball player as was Wilt Chamberlain,....however Russell was the better leader, the better teammate, and the better winner,.........the most prolific winner in all of team sports in American history.

And having a winner at the quarterback position?..... the Bears don't have one in Caleb Williams....he's a physical freak, and will make some spectacular plays with his legs, but the bonehead plays will greatly outnumber the amazing.  No pocket pressure, more concerned with his image than winning football games,....throws inaccurately and indiscriminately when pressured, and I am not sure if Caleb Williams loves football....their backup quarterback is much, much better. 

And I have concerns after watching the game with the coach as well.  I am sure he can coach offense and is very good in the building from Monday to Saturday.  However, I don't think he is a leader, and on Sunday when the bullets are flying, can you make the right in-game decisions that Belichick always seemed to make when he had Brady?  It is not looking likely.  And reading the comments from those in Detroit, they credit the offensive structure they have/had in place to Dan Campbell, NOT Ben Johnson.

The fans are going to turn on this team if they don't win at least 9 games this season, as they seemingly have got all their pieces in place...the o-line, the defensive coordinator...though they are really beat up in the secondary.  But of course, the qb and the coach are the King and queen on the chess board.....everyone else is basically servants to their royalty and I rank both of them in the bottom 10 in the league, which equates to underachieving.

As far as learning the game, game smarts I feel are either something you or you don't.  I watched Cam Ward go against the Broncos in Denver, which is a pretty tough place to play.  He didn't play well, and late in the game he started throwing fastballs that sizzled through receivers at the end of the game, though a professional receiver would be expected to make some of those catches.   He took sacks when his team was in position to go up with a field goal.  But all in all, it looked like he cared for his team and wanted to win.  He'll get better and will lift his team in the future, despite his coach not being at the level of a Kevin O'Connell.  The Titans will have to draft a stud wide receiver in their next draft, and some offensive linemen.  

Ward I feel possesses the intangibles that I feel Williams lacks....we'll see things go for both Ward and Williams as the season progresses.

Plays:

  1)  Jaguars +3'....line looks like it is headed to +3

  2)  Chiefs +1

  3)  Tians +5'

@Indigo999

 JJ had 143 yards vs a horrible defense. The Bears lost the game with horrible play calling aka dumb coaching. Did you not watch JJ at Michigan anyways he will be out of a job at the end of the season dont see him winning much games in the future. BOL

I could be wrong, but thats my opinion**

Great stuff as always Indigo. I don't buy Caleb at all and think he's a bust. All the pieces are present for him to succeed with an improved o-line, Offensive minded HC, DJ Moore, Odunze, Burden, Loveland, etc. All the stats of rookies losing first game as a starter on road favored picked Bears to cover, but I went with Minnesota solely because of Caleb, who I don't even think loves football.

Divergent perception is what makes a market....good fortune this season....

We'll see what transpires going forward.....think it might get ugly for the Bears this season....

  a)  An underdog off a loss before November who will be at least a five point favorite their next game......126-74-4 ATS (+4.6).....ON Seahawks, Chiefs

  b)  A home favorite before week 5, off a loss that will be at least a five point underdog their next game....35-76 ATS (-5.7)...VERSUS Lions, Dolphins

  c)  A week 2 home dog off a loss facing a team off a win who will have the stronger next game point spread in comparison to their present opponent's next game line.....10-1-1 ATS (+9.1)......ON Titans, Chiefs

Chiefs in their lookahead line will be a 6.5 point favorite next week, while the Eagles will be four point favorites.  Titans are to be 2 point underdogs while Rams will be four point dogs.

Query text....

D and n:line - on:line < 0 and week = 2 and day != Monday and t:wins = 0 and o:wins = 1 and site = home

  d)  A week 2 favorite that will be an underdog their next game....74-130-5 ATS (-3.3), 36.3%.....VERSUS Cardinals, Broncos, Dolphins, Rams, Lions, Cowboys, Bengals

Plays so far, for 1.5 units

1)  Chiefs +1

2)  Titans +5'

3)  Jaguars +3'

  e)  Publicly backed underdogs last week went 0-3 ATS, with losses on Miami, Detroit and Chicago.....this week so far, though things may change, those public dogs are the Patriots, Bucs and Falcons.

@Indigo999

Are you sure on B) doesn't Dallas fit and I get 30-46? and nice one with (c) also sent u an email

Dallas is due to be a 1.5 point dog their next game...

https://pregame.com/game-center/?d=NaN&t=1&l=NaN&a=0&s=AwayRot&m=false&b=undefined&o=Current&c=All&k=

Query text....

HF and n:line>5 and week<5 and p:L

How about a week 2 HD and p:margin>2 and total >42 and less 49 and season>=2015

week=2 and season>=2015 and p:margin>2 and HD and 42  (9-0)

  f)  An away divisional dog before week 5 off a home loss that was played on either Thursday or Monday.....11-3 ATS.....ON Bears

This moves to 6-1 ATS, 4-3 straight up if their present opponent is also off a loss.

Query text......

AD and week<5 and p:HL and DIV and p:day!=Sunday

  g)  A September home favorite of less than 7 points in weeks 2, 3 or 4 that is off an away loss that played in zero or less than three playoff games the previous season.....79-136-7 ATS (-3.1), 111-111 straight up (+0.5).....VERSUS Cowboys, Lions, Dolphins, Texans

Query text....

week < 5 and HF and p:AL and line > -7 and tpS(playoffs) < 3 and month = 9

Lions are currently listed as +3.5 in week three.

A week 2 dog that lost week 1 but had more rushing and passing yards than there previous opponent and line less or=4

week=2 and Dand p:L and op:W and p:rushing yards+p:passing yards>po:rushing yards+po:passing yards  (22-8) 70%

On the pregame website, they are +7 at Westgate, +6' at betonline, and +6 at draftkings.......

#18 should be 42-18 ,  on NYJ-NO-ATL

That's a good find....this moves to 23-9 ATS (+4.8), 19-14 straight up if they lost at home. 

I have found that when an indicated play-on team doesn't come through, they often do so the next week, in the case of the Falcons...however as of now they are a public dog, which would keep me off of playing the Falcons.

  h)  An away divisional dog off a home divisional dog loss by less than 5 points.....32-15-2 (+3.7), 17-31 o/u (+0.2).......if their present opponent is off an away dog loss.....12-1-1 (+6.4), 7-7 straight up (+0.4), 5-9 o/u (-3.5)......ON Bears (and UNDER)

p:margin>-5 and p:HDL and AD and DIV and p:DIV and op:ADL

  i)  A home divisional favorite of less than 7 points before November off an away dog divisional  loss of less than 5 points....8-14-2 ATS (-2.9), 15-9 straight up (+0.8), 14-10 o/u (+6.5)......VERSUS Cowboys (and OVER)

p:margin>-5 and HF and p:DIV and DIV and p:ADL and line>-7 and month<11

Plays with covers contest percentages:

Adding....

4)  Seahawks +3...25%

1)  Chiefs +1........39%

2)  Titans +5'.......36%

3)  Jaguars +3'....37%

  j)  Since 2014, an away dog of less 7 points before week 5 off a loss, whose point spread is less than the average margin of the two teams....61-26 ATS (+2.9)....ON Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Giants....this has been 25-9 ATS in week 2 since 2013.

Explaining this, as an example, the Falcons average margin is -3, and the Vikings is +3....the predicted line using just averages (in this case there is no average because there's only been one game played),...the line would be Falcons +6 (three minus negative three) and then  two and half points are added  for home field.....rather than a line of Falcons plus 8.5 points, the betting line is +3.5

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013 and line < 7 and p:L