This Eagles team isn't the juggernaut everyone thinks they are, and Sunday at AT&T Stadium is where that reality check arrives.
Philadelphia is without All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson, who's dealing with a Lisfranc sprain in his foot. The numbers here are staggering. The Eagles are 120-62-1 in games Lane Johnson has played and just 15-24 in games he hasn't. That's not a coincidence. Johnson is the anchor protecting Jalen Hurts' blind side, and without him, Fred Johnson steps in against a Dallas pass rush that just got significantly more dangerous.
The Cowboys added Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, and he made an immediate impact with 1.5 sacks and five QB hits in his debut. Pair him with Micah Parsons, and you've got Hurts scrambling all afternoon. This Eagles offensive line was already having issues, and now you're asking a backup to handle this kind of heat in a hostile environment.
Meanwhile, Dallas is rolling offensively. They rank second in the NFL in points per game at 29.6, they're first in passing, and Dak Prescott is playing some of his best football. He's completing nearly 70% of his passes with 21 touchdowns and averaging 258.7 yards per game. The Cowboys just hung 33 points on the Raiders on Monday Night Football and held them to a season-low 16 points while recording five sacks.
The Eagles offense, on the other hand, has been struggling. They rank 16th in scoring at just 23.4 points per game. Saquon Barkley is averaging 66.2 rushing yards per game compared to 125.3 last season. A.J. Brown is down to 50.8 receiving yards per game from 83.0 last year. This unit hasn't looked explosive, and they've been grinding out wins rather than dominating. Last week they needed every bit of effort to beat the Lions 16-9.
The situational spot matters too. Dallas is 4-5-1 with just a 5% chance to make the playoffs. This is a must-win game, and both CeeDee Lamb and Dak have publicly called it a playoff game with a "win or go home" mentality. Philadelphia has already clinched four straight wins and sits at 8-2 with plenty of cushion. The desperation factor heavily favors the home team.
History backs this up. Dallas is 6-1 against the spread at home versus Philadelphia in their last seven meetings, while the Eagles are just 1-6 against the spread on the road in this matchup over that same span. AT&T Stadium has been a house of horrors for Philly, and nothing about this setup suggests that changes on Sunday.
You're getting a desperate Cowboys team at home with their best offensive performance of the season fresh in everyone's mind, facing an Eagles squad missing their most important offensive lineman against a defense that just added a difference maker up front. Dallas keeps this close at minimum, but I think they win it outright. Take the points.
Gimme the Cowgirls +3 
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