The Only Way I see Betting the Conference Chamionship

Hello covers brothers,

What an amazing week of football this past week. The games were thrilling. Disclaimer: I have a SB matchup prop placed before the season for KC vs. Rams +2800 and KC vs. 49ers +3000. I have futures on Rams and 49ers but would prefer the Rams given the odds on multiple futures on both. I am obviously in a good position given the remaining games and my matchup future. My analysis of the games this week are not based on my personal futures. I think we have to closely examine these games to make the best, positive EV wager. 

That being said, there is ONLY one way I see of betting the games this week. The KC Chiefs looked good at Arrowhead. By that I mean their offense looked good. Pat Mahomes play amazing, throwing for zero picks and came up huge in the clutch. The loss of Tyrone Matheau was huge and hopefully he will be back. Their defense looked incredibly shaking. I still do not trust Daniel Sorenson playing safety and think he is just bound to give up a big play. The Bengals beat the KC Chiefs this season and I think KC exacts revenge at home. No way does a ROOKIE QB go into Arrowhead during his first pre-season and out duel Pat Mahomes. Especially not when the offensive line cannot block for him worth a shit. The Bengals O-line gave up 9 sacks against Tennessee and I just see the KC pass rush getting to Burrow this week. I think the Chiefs will lead by 10-13 most of the game but the reason I am weary about the line is I can see the Chiefs getting lax and I think KC might have a backdoor opportunity to cover the spread. 

I think that the best thing to do this week is to tease the KC Chiefs at home vs. a rookie QB to a pick'em and to tease the 49ers to above the key number of 10. This will be the third matchup between the 49ers and the Rams. While I like the Rams to win the game, I think this game, like all of the games this past week and the last meeting between these two teams will be decided by ~3 points. I think teasing both lines 7 points to get KC PK/49ers +10.5 is really the way to go. I do not see the Rams blowing out the 49ers. They are physical on defense and their pass rush will make things difficult for Stafford. I think they will limit the runs with Akers and Sony Michel and ball security is certainly an issue for Cam Akers who fumbled twice this past week. 

Two-team 7 point teaser:

Chiefs PK/49ers +10.5 LARGE

BOL...

Burrow is not a rookie, he played in 10 games last year.

If you think Bengals might back-door it might be better to take Bengals +7 and try for a middle the futures and the Bengals +7.

Because if you are wrong and Bengals win SU you will lose both the teaser and the futures.

If you go for The middle you can't lose both but you can win both.

@theclaw

Yeah I see what you are saying. Good points in brining up that he isn't a rookie but it is his first playoff appearance against a seasoned KC team. 

Like I was mentioning above, these bets are made in regard to everyone on the forum and not as a consideration of my personal future bets. While I get what you are saying, and why it would be better to try to middle by maybe even betting Bengals +14 in the teaser or Bengals plus the points, I think that irrespective of middling for me, the value in betting this game comes from incorporating it into a teaser.

I think that the teaser goes through the key numbers of 3 for the KC side and has them as a pick'em and it goes through the key number of 7 and 10 and has the 49ers at plus 10.5 which I think is HUGE given the matchups and the way the games played out this past week. The Rams and 49ers are pretty evenly stacked and I like the teaser above, but will certainly consider middling like you mentioned. 

Tease Cincy plus 13. SF plus 9

Usually I wouldn't be a fan of a teaser. But in this case it makes so much sense. 

@Mick_Dundee

@Ih8coldweather

 You only need worry about Sorenson if Mathieu is OUT still for concussion.  He is reportedly going to return this week.  Sorenson was benched week 6 after the Chiefs defense gave up more points in the first 5 weeks of the season in the history of the league....has only been playing less than 50% of the snaps since then.  BOL 

@asmth14

Does anyone in the forum like the Bengals? The line of +7 is steep and I actually think they have a good chance of covering but can anyone see this team beating KC AGAIN, except this time in Arrowhead?? I mean how can they do it? Burrow got punished last week and took 9 sacks. I need to go back and watch their previous matchup where Bengals won 34-31

@Ih8coldweather

 Bengals win outright!

I think a very cold weather game, with a low total posted is the best time for a teaser.  In a high scoring shootout, like the Chiefs/Bengals game figures to be, I don't think you make the best use out of the teaser points. A mistake or two by either of these QBs could easily lead to a 17 point win for one team or the other.  Two of the Chief's losses this year were by 18, and 24 points.

How does Cincinnati protect Burrow though? 9 sacks? KC defense is improved, dramatically. They also have Melvin Ingram which will result in even more pressure and sacks against Burrow. 

I just don’t see how Cincinnati wins this game.