Bad start. On to week two! How ironic that I went 4-1 +1.23 in CFB so far - sometimes life is just weird.
TNF: Buffalo Bills pk +100 (1u)
Fade the Fitz! I think there is a
solid chance Fitzpatrick will be benched by week 6. He is a terrible QB
and everyone who actually watches Jets games should know that. He
had many terrible throws last Sunday. Last year the Jets played a
cupcake schedule and his bad throws were overshadowed by poor defensive
play or adjustments by Decker and Marshall. His historic stats as a starter vs. Rex
Ryan since 2009: 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS. All his plays combined during that span, also in games he didn't start:
48.2% comp
5.6 NYPPA
18.68 PPG
16TD 12INT
Rex owns Ryan. Rex has the Jets
number. Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick have gone 0-4 SU vs. Rex when Fitzpatrick started. Jets are the better overall team, simple as that, but I don't trust this QB on the road vs. Rex Ryan. Line moved 3 points, it's prime time, stadium will be rocking. If
Ryan Fitzpatrick leads this team to a road win vs. Rex Ryan, I will
accept the loss and be happy as a Jets-fan. But I am paying to see it!
Carolina Panthers -13 -105 (1u)
Circled spot. Panthers' last two losses were in the Super Bowl against Denver and last week in the prime time opener vs. Denver. They are on 10 days rest and play vs. a Niners team with holes all over the roster coming off a MNF blowout-win against a divisional rival. It's an early east coast game for SF, their body clocks will be at 10 AM after staying in California since August 21st. Don't overreact to that MNF win - the Niners are still bad. Blaine Gabbert didn't have a good game, he was just on the winning side. He collected a lot of first downs with scrambles - that won't happen vs. a prepared and focused Panthers team at home. For the Panthers it must feel like your girlfriend cheated on you - you go into the cellar and pummel the punchbag. The Niners are Carolina's punchbag this Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 -110 (1u)
This is a prime situational spot to take Houston, but I have to take Alex Smith getting 3 points over Brock Osweiler. I studied Osweiler a lot and I don't buy into him. Chiefs D is downgraded without Houston and Smith but they got their sh*t together and almost shut SD out in the second half. I hope they carry this momentum to Houston to get the threepeat. The Chiefs OL is looking awful right now but when did this line look good the last time? I told myself to take the Chiefs vs. bad OL and below average passing attacks. This fits right in here, Osweiler has to prove me right.
Minnesota Vikings +3 (2u)
Will lock it in as soon as this line pops to 3, even if I have to wait until late Sunday. Home opener, prime time, new stadium & the honor
of Danny Green – If that wouldn’t be enough for a good motivational spot
in favor of Minnesota, the Vikes have the DL to destroy that GB backup
interior with Linval
Joseph and Shariff Floyd. The Jaguars couldn’t finish their pass rushes
on Rodgers and when they got pressure, he escaped with some good throws
into mismatches. The Vikings secondary is better than the Jags’ one and
should be able to create more tight windows.
In fact, JAX had all the chances to win vs GB and the Packers now will
be on a b2b road game against a far superior team than JAX was. Bradford would make me like the bet even more.
Bad start. On to week two! How ironic that I went 4-1 +1.23 in CFB so far - sometimes life is just weird.
TNF: Buffalo Bills pk +100 (1u)
Fade the Fitz! I think there is a
solid chance Fitzpatrick will be benched by week 6. He is a terrible QB
and everyone who actually watches Jets games should know that. He
had many terrible throws last Sunday. Last year the Jets played a
cupcake schedule and his bad throws were overshadowed by poor defensive
play or adjustments by Decker and Marshall. His historic stats as a starter vs. Rex
Ryan since 2009: 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS. All his plays combined during that span, also in games he didn't start:
48.2% comp
5.6 NYPPA
18.68 PPG
16TD 12INT
Rex owns Ryan. Rex has the Jets
number. Chan Gailey and Ryan Fitzpatrick have gone 0-4 SU vs. Rex when Fitzpatrick started. Jets are the better overall team, simple as that, but I don't trust this QB on the road vs. Rex Ryan. Line moved 3 points, it's prime time, stadium will be rocking. If
Ryan Fitzpatrick leads this team to a road win vs. Rex Ryan, I will
accept the loss and be happy as a Jets-fan. But I am paying to see it!
Carolina Panthers -13 -105 (1u)
Circled spot. Panthers' last two losses were in the Super Bowl against Denver and last week in the prime time opener vs. Denver. They are on 10 days rest and play vs. a Niners team with holes all over the roster coming off a MNF blowout-win against a divisional rival. It's an early east coast game for SF, their body clocks will be at 10 AM after staying in California since August 21st. Don't overreact to that MNF win - the Niners are still bad. Blaine Gabbert didn't have a good game, he was just on the winning side. He collected a lot of first downs with scrambles - that won't happen vs. a prepared and focused Panthers team at home. For the Panthers it must feel like your girlfriend cheated on you - you go into the cellar and pummel the punchbag. The Niners are Carolina's punchbag this Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 -110 (1u)
This is a prime situational spot to take Houston, but I have to take Alex Smith getting 3 points over Brock Osweiler. I studied Osweiler a lot and I don't buy into him. Chiefs D is downgraded without Houston and Smith but they got their sh*t together and almost shut SD out in the second half. I hope they carry this momentum to Houston to get the threepeat. The Chiefs OL is looking awful right now but when did this line look good the last time? I told myself to take the Chiefs vs. bad OL and below average passing attacks. This fits right in here, Osweiler has to prove me right.
Minnesota Vikings +3 (2u)
Will lock it in as soon as this line pops to 3, even if I have to wait until late Sunday. Home opener, prime time, new stadium & the honor
of Danny Green – If that wouldn’t be enough for a good motivational spot
in favor of Minnesota, the Vikes have the DL to destroy that GB backup
interior with Linval
Joseph and Shariff Floyd. The Jaguars couldn’t finish their pass rushes
on Rodgers and when they got pressure, he escaped with some good throws
into mismatches. The Vikings secondary is better than the Jags’ one and
should be able to create more tight windows.
In fact, JAX had all the chances to win vs GB and the Packers now will
be on a b2b road game against a far superior team than JAX was. Bradford would make me like the bet even more.
I really like the carolina pick. As for the bills game, it just seems too easy. Home game, Ryan record ridiculous against jets, big line movement and 3/4 of the Money on the jets. Layup right? I'm staying away here. This might be one vegas eats and they make it up Sunday. Seriously. I do like the bills though for what its worth....The Houston, KC game is tough. I lean KC there but I see better games to bet on. Lastly, aside from all the side factors like Denny green, new stadium, etc, this game is going to come down to the running attack for both teams. If green bay is able to run, they simply win here because I think Bradford makes a big mistake in the end. Good pick but I will wait to see where the line goes. No hurry for me. I'm surprised, of all the games, you chose the ones you did. Games I'm keeping my eyes on are the giants/new Orleans game and the ravens/browns game. Interesting lines....I respect the hell out of ya amigo and wish you luck this weekend.
I really like the carolina pick. As for the bills game, it just seems too easy. Home game, Ryan record ridiculous against jets, big line movement and 3/4 of the Money on the jets. Layup right? I'm staying away here. This might be one vegas eats and they make it up Sunday. Seriously. I do like the bills though for what its worth....The Houston, KC game is tough. I lean KC there but I see better games to bet on. Lastly, aside from all the side factors like Denny green, new stadium, etc, this game is going to come down to the running attack for both teams. If green bay is able to run, they simply win here because I think Bradford makes a big mistake in the end. Good pick but I will wait to see where the line goes. No hurry for me. I'm surprised, of all the games, you chose the ones you did. Games I'm keeping my eyes on are the giants/new Orleans game and the ravens/browns game. Interesting lines....I respect the hell out of ya amigo and wish you luck this weekend.
SUUMA, on NYJ tonight....how do they stop NYJ front 7, especially with no glenn? watkins at this moment seems super GTD....i lean NYJ here.
disagree on MIN...Rhodes won't play......Jordy had a game to get his legs underneath him...look out for week 2....not exactly a road game in this one...crowd will easily be 50/50.
BOL TO YOU!! hated being on otherside of CHI/HOU and was definitely hating it at halftime...got lucky it worked out in the 2H. don't listen to the haters and keep doing what you do!!
SUUMA, on NYJ tonight....how do they stop NYJ front 7, especially with no glenn? watkins at this moment seems super GTD....i lean NYJ here.
disagree on MIN...Rhodes won't play......Jordy had a game to get his legs underneath him...look out for week 2....not exactly a road game in this one...crowd will easily be 50/50.
BOL TO YOU!! hated being on otherside of CHI/HOU and was definitely hating it at halftime...got lucky it worked out in the 2H. don't listen to the haters and keep doing what you do!!
You dont think Matt Forte will be a difference in this game? Chris Ivory was a nice power back but if teams stopped the Jets running game they would be pretty one dimensional. With Forte, Fitz can dump the ball down to him to move the chains.
I also think the secondary of the Jets will play much better especially Darrell Revis. He's not the same Revis but he'll play much better than he did against AJ Green
You dont think Matt Forte will be a difference in this game? Chris Ivory was a nice power back but if teams stopped the Jets running game they would be pretty one dimensional. With Forte, Fitz can dump the ball down to him to move the chains.
I also think the secondary of the Jets will play much better especially Darrell Revis. He's not the same Revis but he'll play much better than he did against AJ Green
The Jets are going to be the Jets and Jets it up just like they did on Sunday. I predict we'll see turnovers, special teams errors, missed tackles and stupid penalties only the Jets can make (eg Bills 3rd and 24 and then holding called on Buster Skrine extending the game winning drive for the Bills). Jets fans like me know this to be true. I'll bump this when it happens.
The Jets are going to be the Jets and Jets it up just like they did on Sunday. I predict we'll see turnovers, special teams errors, missed tackles and stupid penalties only the Jets can make (eg Bills 3rd and 24 and then holding called on Buster Skrine extending the game winning drive for the Bills). Jets fans like me know this to be true. I'll bump this when it happens.
I know there is a stat on visitors who are on a back to back schedule of road games but I cannot remember it. Does anyone know this trend and how it applies to the Pack?
I know there is a stat on visitors who are on a back to back schedule of road games but I cannot remember it. Does anyone know this trend and how it applies to the Pack?
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