And thanks to you for posting your stats - you are one of the very few who could or would.
Do you think that you are on to a continuing trend in MLB and NHL or do you think it is just something fluky that worked for a couple of years? In other words - is it sustainable - or what I call "retrofit statistics" - looking back on any historical data you can find trends - but are they trends that continue or just trends in that set of data points?
Thanks again for your input in this thread. I am more convinced than ever that these numbers are used (or misused) by people who have no idea what to do with them - and no justification for what they are using them for. Except for you - there is no post in this thread with actual stats that show a positive history for NFL or NCAAF - but still if you look in the forum everyone throws around these numbers.
I understand the point above about it just being another stat - but imagine if you had a stat that was kept regarding teams that win with the most green eyes on their team - and you had no frame of reference as to what that even means. I have a feeling that the same people at covers would say things like "Tampa has 24 green eyed players, and Buffalo only 20, Im taking Tampa". Maybe a bad example - but my point is that if you have statistic with no frame of reference of significance - how can you base anything off of it?
Thanks for your input in this thread.
And thanks to you for posting your stats - you are one of the very few who could or would.
Do you think that you are on to a continuing trend in MLB and NHL or do you think it is just something fluky that worked for a couple of years? In other words - is it sustainable - or what I call "retrofit statistics" - looking back on any historical data you can find trends - but are they trends that continue or just trends in that set of data points?
Thanks again for your input in this thread. I am more convinced than ever that these numbers are used (or misused) by people who have no idea what to do with them - and no justification for what they are using them for. Except for you - there is no post in this thread with actual stats that show a positive history for NFL or NCAAF - but still if you look in the forum everyone throws around these numbers.
I understand the point above about it just being another stat - but imagine if you had a stat that was kept regarding teams that win with the most green eyes on their team - and you had no frame of reference as to what that even means. I have a feeling that the same people at covers would say things like "Tampa has 24 green eyed players, and Buffalo only 20, Im taking Tampa". Maybe a bad example - but my point is that if you have statistic with no frame of reference of significance - how can you base anything off of it?
Thanks for your input in this thread.
Not trying to sound like a dick, but you do not know anyone who has been cut off at pinnacle for winning.
Sorry, but you dont, and I would bet on it.
Not trying to sound like a dick, but you do not know anyone who has been cut off at pinnacle for winning.
Sorry, but you dont, and I would bet on it.
heres another thing you arent taking into consideration. Even if the numbers were legit on these consensus sites, you have no way of actually know which lines moved because of smart money and which lines moved because of dumb bettors with large amounts of money.
Another thing is the fact that sharp bettors arent all going to line up on the same games everyday. In every game on the board you are going to have some sharps on one side and some sharps on the other side. This could kill a bettor trying to follow sharp money, because you could endup playing alot of wrong sides.
Lastly the best way to get real numbers is to know somebody in a sportsbook who could supply you with real info and could also tell you that sharp bettor Joe who wins more games then he loses is betting this team. Then you can make some money.
When these site all first came out, i myself was a believer in them and then i finally realized these numbers are all bogus, designed to make bettors believe they have found the golden goose. In fact what these sites have now accomplished is they have gotton alot of bettors to stop spending time actually capping games and instead just use these numbers to pick their plays.
Look at it this way, if you owned a sportsbook would you want to give these numbers away? If your a smart sportsbook owner your answer would be no.
You dont see Bill Gates giving away his code for the windows system, nor do you see kentucky fried chicken giving away their chicken recipe even thou the majority of people would bother making the recipe anyways. Its just smart business not to give your secrets away no matter what type of business you own
heres another thing you arent taking into consideration. Even if the numbers were legit on these consensus sites, you have no way of actually know which lines moved because of smart money and which lines moved because of dumb bettors with large amounts of money.
Another thing is the fact that sharp bettors arent all going to line up on the same games everyday. In every game on the board you are going to have some sharps on one side and some sharps on the other side. This could kill a bettor trying to follow sharp money, because you could endup playing alot of wrong sides.
Lastly the best way to get real numbers is to know somebody in a sportsbook who could supply you with real info and could also tell you that sharp bettor Joe who wins more games then he loses is betting this team. Then you can make some money.
When these site all first came out, i myself was a believer in them and then i finally realized these numbers are all bogus, designed to make bettors believe they have found the golden goose. In fact what these sites have now accomplished is they have gotton alot of bettors to stop spending time actually capping games and instead just use these numbers to pick their plays.
Look at it this way, if you owned a sportsbook would you want to give these numbers away? If your a smart sportsbook owner your answer would be no.
You dont see Bill Gates giving away his code for the windows system, nor do you see kentucky fried chicken giving away their chicken recipe even thou the majority of people would bother making the recipe anyways. Its just smart business not to give your secrets away no matter what type of business you own
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