The Giants get a lesson in playoff football, and we lose 2 units.
I am a big Josh Allen fan....I recently read his story on how he sent out 1000 letters to universities trying to get someone interested in him as a prospect and had zero response....the evaluation of players is an inexact science, as is handicapping.
However, as I've mentioned earlier I feel he is a lesser quarterback with the departure of Brian Daboll and I am pretty surprised that the Buffalo OC, Ken Dorsey is interviewing for a head coaching position, as to me, the difference between this year and past years is pretty stark. Turnovers are the biggest difference,...Josh Allen has been cavalier with the ball.
I've run a query on turnover margin for this round of the playoffs....normally turnover margin is regressive....the team that has turned it over more on an average per game basis in comparison to their present opponent pregame tends to turn it over less in that game.....well this query, at least in this situation in the playoffs tells us otherwise.
y) Teams that turn it over more in round 2 based on the turnover margin differential average going into the game, as home favorites have gone 12-18 ATS, which includes a record of 5-12-1 ATS (-1.89), 11-7 straight up (+3.89) and 12-6 ou (+4.81) on Sunday games, the underdog day for the playoffs.
Average line/total -5.6, 47.5, average score 28-24.3.
tA(TOM) means average turnover margin per game. (Margin = offense minus defense)....the database originator has used offensive turnovers produced first (the numerator) and defensive turnovers created second (denominator), so the more positive the number, the worse your team is performing, which is opposite how we usually look at turnovers where a positive turnover number is looked upon as a good thing....NOT with killersports.
tA(TOM)-oA(TOM)>0 and playoffs = 1 and HF and op:playoffs = 1 and opp:playoffs = 0 and day
I've bet Allen to throw an interception in this game........-140 for a unit.....it is my first prop bet for the season and probably my last....I won't count it as a play....and possibly if it loses I will be cured of betting them forever, kind of like the father that catches his kid smoking and makes him smoke a whole pack in the shed or garage.......