No stone gets left unturned yet again while the sportsbooks look on in horror.

WHY THE PANTHERS ARE THE PLAY OF THE WEEK

Here's what we're looking at Sunday: The New York Jets are 0-6 and they opened as favorites in this game. Let that sink in for a second. The only winless team in football was actually favored when this line first hit the board.

The line has since completely flipped. We're now looking at Panthers minus-1, and that line movement tells you everything you need to know about where the sharp action landed.

Let's start with what happened last week in London because it's almost hard to believe. Justin Fields was sacked nine times against Denver. The Jets dropped back to pass 26 times and netted minus-10 yards on those plays. They also had a botched drive before halftime where 32 seconds ticked off the clock without running a single play.

Think about that for a moment. Minus-10 net passing yards. You could literally have the quarterback take a knee on every play and do better than that.

The problems don't stop there. Garrett Wilson is dealing with a knee injury and didn't practice all week. He's listed as doubtful for Sunday. That means Josh Reynolds is likely stepping in as their number one receiver. Reynolds is a fine player but he's not a true WR1, and asking him to be that against a defense that's been playing well is a tall order.

Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this year, Fields ranks 22nd in passing grade and has the fourth-highest pressure-to-sack rate at 24.4 percent. When pressure comes, which it does constantly, he's going down. There's no escape ability, no quick release to compensate. It's been rough.

Carolina has figured something out over the last few weeks, and it's pretty simple: give the ball to Rico Dowdle and let him cook.

Dowdle has put up 183 rushing yards in one game and 206 in another over the last two weeks. He's posted 239 and 234 scrimmage yards in those same games. We're talking about a running back who's averaging close to 200 yards from scrimmage per game right now. That's not sustainable over a full season, obviously, but it shows you what kind of roll he's on.

These back-to-back performances of 230-plus total yards helped the Panthers reach .500 for the first time since 2021. There's real momentum building in Charlotte.

The best news? Chuba Hubbard is coming back. He logged a full practice Friday and carries no injury designation, meaning he'll return after missing the previous two games. So now you're getting Dowdle, who's been unstoppable, paired with Hubbard coming back fresh. That's a legitimate one-two punch.

The Panthers rank 10th in success rate at 46.51 percent, with their run game serving as the engine. They rank fourth in Expected Points Added per rush at 0.08. They know who they are. They're going to line up in heavy personnel, run the ball, and dare you to stop them.

The Matchup Breakdown

Here's where this gets really interesting from a matchup perspective.

The Jets have allowed 127.0 rushing yards per game and 4.43 yards per carry over their last three games. They're middle of the pack at best when it comes to stopping the run, and that's being generous. Those are recent numbers too, which means they're trending in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Panthers have allowed just 51.3 rushing yards per game and 2.48 yards per carry since Week 4. That's not a typo. Since Week 4, Carolina has been the best run defense in the entire league. They're giving up barely over 50 yards per game on the ground.

So you've got the Panthers' elite run offense going against the Jets' mediocre run defense, and you've got the Panthers' elite run defense going against the Jets' non-existent run offense. Every matchup advantage in this game points toward Carolina.

The Jets' offensive identity is supposed to be built around the run game with their offensive line, but they rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate over expectations. They want to run the ball because they have to, not because they're good at it.

The problem is they're running into a brick wall this week. The Panthers' run defense has been dominant for a month now. That's going to force Fields to beat them through the air, and we've already established how that's been going.

Fields had minus-10 net passing yards last week, taking as many sacks as he had completions. The Panthers are going to bring pressure, make him uncomfortable, and force him into mistakes. I'd be shocked if this game doesn't feature at least one turnover from Fields, probably two.

This game opened with New York as a 1-point favorite. The total has nudged down from 45.5 to 45.

When you see a line flip completely like this, from one team favored to the other team favored, that's the market correcting itself. The sharp bettors looked at that opening line and said "absolutely not" and hammered Carolina. The sportsbooks adjusted accordingly.

The total coming down is also significant. Vegas doesn't think the Jets can score, and based on what we've seen, they're probably right. This has all the makings of a game where Carolina controls the tempo, runs the ball 35 times, and keeps the clock moving.

The Panthers have won three of their last four games, including consecutive victories in the fourth quarter. They're finding ways to win close games. They've got confidence right now. Bryce Young is managing games well, the defense is playing with swagger, and the run game is clicking.

The Jets? They're 0-6. They've been outscored, outplayed, and out-coached in every single game this season. There's no light at the end of the tunnel for them right now. They just got embarrassed on international television in London, and now they're coming back home without their best receiver to face a team that's playing good football.

The Panthers are going to establish the run early with Dowdle and Hubbard. They're going to keep Fields on the sideline, control time of possession, and play keep-away. When the Jets do get the ball, the Panthers' defense is going to stuff the run and bring pressure on Fields.

This is probably a 24-13 or 27-14 type of game. The Panthers might even win by double digits. At worst, if it's a rock fight and comes down to field goals, Carolina still wins by a field goal and you push on the minus-1.

The scenario where the Jets win requires them to suddenly figure out how to play offense after six weeks of being terrible, with their quarterback who had minus-10 passing yards last week, without their best receiver, against a defense that's been elite against the run. That's asking for a miracle.

This is one of those games where every single angle points the same direction. The Panthers have the better offense, better defense, better momentum, better health, and they're getting the line value. The sharp money moved this line for a reason.

Carolina minus-1. Take it and feel good about it. This should be a comfortable win for the Panthers, somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-14 or 27-10. The Jets are going to 0-7, and it's not going to be close.

GIMME THE PANTHERS -1  

Historically  when a dog becomes a favorite Jimmy the play is to back the new dog.

Has a pretty good long term record. I saw that on you tube.

@JimmyGape

 Bol Stay hot

On the road they are different then at home 

Bravo. You are asset to this forum. Write ups like this are why I still visit covers. 

Fantastic insight, you obviously know the game. 

Cheers.

Pretty sure line moves in NFL you back the new favorite. But go ahead and post the vid maybe I am wrong

BOL today 

I'd like to see the evidence of what you guys are talking about.

@JimmyGape

You sound like the MC in the Coney Island Hot Dog Contest. That is one of his famous lines, haha  I'd say goodluck to you, but unfortunately I'm on the other side, but please take this token for the Carolina Panthers for me.

very square bet Jimmy but good luck

When I traveleed the world I met a lot of gorgeous women. If theres one thing I learned, Id rather be alone.

I can only imagine how many people will scratch their heads over this last post.

@JimmyGape

@JimmyGape

Vegas will have to adjust to the fact the Jets are not competitive regardless of whether they are home or on road. In the meantime, we just continue to cash!! 

It failed me today.

Jimmy on a roll. Unless its the Niners. 

He making me a believer.  I may not agree with his next pick.  But I won't bet against him at this point.

Great call Jimmy! Especially on the Bengals and the Falcons!

Nice Jimmy

You guys don't seem to very good at evaluating situations no offense.

Ive picked 1 Niners game this year and lost because Fred Warner was murdered.

I love how people forget all the Niners winners Ive given over the years.

Gambler's selective memory is something I find very interesting it's almost fascinating. The funny thing is I actually do it too when I tell people gambling stories I have a tendency to tell them my worst losses and worst days first I have a tendency to remember those. If I were to give 10 niners winners and two losers people would be more inclined to talk about the losses than the wins.