NFL Week Six Ponderings

Last week was a wash. Won on the 49ers, lost on the Jets. BARELY have my head above water for pizza money. And beer. Can't forget the beer. 

Thursday, Oct. 9th

Eagles -7' at GIANTS - The way Philadelphia has been playing they shouldn't be favored over anybody! Last week they blew a 17-3 fourth quarter lead, losing to Denver 18-17. The Broncos dominated time of possession (34:17) with a strong run game (130 yards, 4.5 YPR). What I don't understand is why the Eagles only ran the ball 11 times? Why did Saquon Barkley only have six carries? Philly is 0-5 ITS, despite being 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. They're only averaging 261.6 yards a game, 30th in the league, and defensively they can't stop the run (4.7 YPR). They could easily be 1-4 or even 0-5! As for the Giants, rookie QB Jaxson Dart followed up winning his first start with a three turnover stinker in New Orleans. They have some of the same issues the Eagles have; they can't protect the passer and they can't stop the run for starters. One glaring difference though is the turnover/takeaway comparison. The Eagles are +4 while the G-men are -5. No play for me on this game, but a slight lean to the Giants.

More tomorrow evening and/or Saturday. BOL.

Another thought on the Eagles' offensive woes. They don't have Kellen Moore running things anymore since he took his talents to New Orleans. I don't think it's a coincidence that Saints QB Spencer Rattler is playing the best ball of his career. Philly's loss looks to be Nawlins' gain. 

Sunday early games

Broncos -7 vs. Jets - I hate these international games, but I will point out some glaring numbers. Denver's defense has recorded 21 QB sacks, and the Jets have allowed 16. The Jets also have committed eight turnovers without a single takeaway. Hard to see the Flyboys getting their first win with those numbers.

Rams -7 at RAVENS - The Rams lost in overtime, 26-23, to the injury riddled 49ers last Thursday, and now they have to regroup against the equally injury riddled Ravens. With QB Lamar Jackson still sidelined with a bad hammy, Cooper Rush gets the start again. Yuck.

Cowboys -3 at PANTHERS - The Cowboys might have a couple of their offensive linemen back after four starters missed last week's 37-22 beatdown of the Jets. This is their second straight game on the road, going up against a Panthers team that rallied from 17-0 down to beat Miami, 27-24. With that win, Carolina has now covered seven straight as a home dog.

COLTS -7 vs. Cardinals - The Cards blew a 21-6 fourth quarter lead in a stunning 22-21 upset loss to the previously winless Titans. QB Kyler Murray injured his foot in the loss and is questionable for this game. It's worth noting that Arizona with Murray starting is 22-7-1 ATS as a road dog. The Colts took advantage of Raider mistakes in a deceiving 40-6 rout over Las Vegas, outgaining the Silver and Black by a mere 28 yards. Lean to Arizona if Murray plays.

Seahawks -1' at JAGUARS - The lack of a pass rush cost Seattle big time in their 38-35 home loss to the Bucs. QB Baker Mayfield was hit just ONCE on 38 dropbacks. Now it's a long road trip and an early start time for the Seahawks, but over the last ten years they're 21-6 in early starts. They've also won eight straight games on the road. J'ville is off a huge Monday night home upset win over KC, and have an NFL best 14 takeaways.Tough call.

Chargers -4' at DOLPHINS - Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been sacked 16 times as injuries mount on their offensive line. They're also down their top two RBs and may not be able to take advantage of a Dolphins defense that's giving up 174 yards a game on the ground (5.6 YPR). Miami also has a banged up line with five players currently on IR and another questionable for this game.

STEELERS -6 vs. Browns - NFL schedule makers certainly didn't grant Cleveland any favors this season. After being routed at Detroit, 34-10, and losing to Minnesota in London, 21-17, in QB Dillon Gabriel's first start, they now have to go to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team off a bye, and that's won their last eight after a week of rest (6-2 ATS). And to top it off, the Browns haven't won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since 2003, and are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games! On the flip side, the Steelers are 0-4 ITS, and have been outgained by a 119 yards a game. Both defenses should dominate here, but at the end of the day I trust QB Aaron Rodgers more than I do Gabriel, making his second start at a tough venue.

Patriots -3' at SAINTS - The Pats are on the road again following their huge, 23-20, upset win at Buffalo last Sunday night. Now they have to avoid a letdown against a Saints team off their first win of the season, 26-14 over the Giants. New Orleans has been competitive for the most part under first year HC Kellen Moore, and QB Spencer Rattler has played pretty much mistake free ball, with six TD passes and just one pick. They've also got all purpose QB/RB/TE Taysom Hill healthy again. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Saints get their second win here.

GL  on your plays either way respectfully @Boisestateand8 

@Macwestie1

 You too my brother! You're a class act. 

Sunday afternoon games

RAIDERS -4' vs. Titans - Third straight road game for the Titans, who were handed a gift win in Arizona last week. But they haven't won or covered two straight since 2022. Raiders SHOULD win this, but they're 31st in red zone conversion rate, and QB Geno Smith has thrown nine picks! If Vegas loses this one expect a QB change.

BUCCANEERS -3' vs. 49ers - Both teams have too many injuries to list here. Every 49ers game this year has been decides by five points or less, and every Buccaneers game has been decided by six points or less. In light of that, it's pretty hard not to look at the dog here. 

PACKERS -14' vs. Bengals - Since Joe Burrows' injury, Cincy has been outscored in three games by a combined 113-37, and now QB Jake Browning has been replaced by newly acquired Joe Flacco. I don't think that's gonna change their fortunes much. The Packers are off a bye and looking to get back on track. Micah Parsons could feast today.