NFL WEEK 6 .....................2025

Near regression  play ......

Jets +7.5 (-115) over Broncos --- .58 units to win .5 units

Big win by Broncos over Eagles. I don't think Broncos beat many teams winning records last year.

So beating the Eagles was for them a big statement win.

Although the Eagles don't look the same as last year.

Guy on you tube talking about how Bronco's players were in downtown  Philly celebrating this big win Like they just won SB.

Fields has a 100.1 passer rating to Nix 87.9.

Fields success rate is 51.7% to Nix 43.6%, this not included in Passer rating.

51.7% is very good.

Jets have 8 TO's to 0 TO's created.

Fields with just 1 INT thus far so that means Jets lost 7 fumbles while recovering none of those fumbles themselves which is not sustainable. 

Jets highly likely get TO's this game.

Yea I know Broncos defense is much better then Jets but off that big celebratory win and playing the lowly Jets, how motivated will they be ?

Looks like a cakewalk for them.

Broncos defense in red zone has giving up 28% TD's, remember the Eagles defense I talked about.

Eagles defense like 36% in red zone and since only like 5 teams finished the season under 40% in past 15 years with the best teams mostly being 44% most years.

Now Eagles  defense is over 50% TD's in the red zone.

And Broncos offense has 15 trips in red zone but defense has given  up 14, that is not very good. The difference  maker for Broncos is the 28 % defensive TD rate in red zone which is not sustainable. 

Exactly what I talked about the Eagles and since then they are off 2 straight losses.

So the 2 big difference  makers 28% TD's in red zone and 0 of 7 fumbles recovered by Jets defense are both not sustainable. 

It has to be Jets or no play people.

I saw on you tube guy was saying coach Tomlin is very good off a bye. This game is a Tomlin game.

Initially I think division game getting 6 or 6.5 you'd have to take Browns.

Looking up Steelers, wow, crazy how this team can have a winning record.

Then been outgained by over 100 yards in 3 of the 4 games. Say what !#$%?

And by 59 yards in the other game.

30th in yards, 28th on defense.

Ave per play 4.9-5.7= (-.8)

Ave per pass 6.2, 16th in league

Defense 6.9, 25th in league

= (-.7)

Rodgers success rate 42.7%

They been in red zone 13 times but opps been 15 times.

Make that 3-1 record make sense ?

Steelers outgain by over 100 yards in 3 of 4 games, the other game outgained by 59 yards.

They rank 30th in yards gained and 28 in yards given up.

Out gained by almost 500 yards on the season in only 4 games.

Ave per play is a pathetic 4.9 yards while giving up 5.7 =(-.8)

Ave per pass 6.2 ranks 16th giving up 6.9 ranks 25th = (-.7)

Roger's success rate 42.7%, J. Fields is over 51%.

Make that 3-1 record make sense ?

Steelers 21st on 3rd down conversions, defense 21st as well = like (-2%)

4th down only 3 attempts while opp has 12 attempts.converted 1 of 3 while opps convert 8 of 12.

Red zone 13 trips with opps 15trips but have converted 68.2% to 60% opps.

Big difference  is Steelers +7 in TO's with being 5-0  in fumbles recovered.

So Steelers have recovered every fumble in their games.

Rodgers does have a 102 Passer Rating which is good no doubt.

I can't see this Steelers team keep on winning if they continue  to play like they have.

They either have to start playing better, actually  outplaying opps or I think they won't win to many more games the way they are going.

So another game it have to be Browns or no play.

No play for me today. We'll  see how this Tomlin spot goes today.

Today's  action .......

Ravens +7.5

Bengals +14.5

Raiders -3.5 (-115)

Zona +7 , half a unit

Jets +7.50 (-115)

Wow Zona now +9.5 Murray must have been ruled out. Didn't really keep up with that situation  the way I should of.

AZ can flat out win this game... I took them ML as well

Yep, Murray is out!  Brissett to start for the Cards.

Yes they had a very good shot to win SU............

KC -2.5 (-115) over Lions --- .58 units to win .5 units

Lions so close to being a Bounce Factor fade and with KC not looking so good losing to Jags but PR II had KC should of won by over 5 pts.

Have to back KC here ..............

@theclaw

 Chiefs...

Ravens loss was too much. They had a 3rd and goal at the 1 yard line just before half and failed to get the TD on 3rd and on 4th and 1 which would have given them a 10-3 halftime lead.

2-1 to this point , geez Louise.

Coach Tomlin did it again after a bye, got to him credit, he just keeps winning.

Steelers did completely outplay Browns, outgained them by like 79 yards.

Rodgers played well, Tomlin deserves credit for getting this team to playing better in that win.

Let's roll ...............

Should be a fun game to watch .

Broncos mauled the Jets, their defense completely shut them down.

Fields with a negative  ave per pass attempt, you don't see that very often. 

I built into PR II a max performance  any team can do, I don't use it very often but had to in this game.

But much as I suggested the Jets won the TO battle and got their very 1st fumble recovery of the season

According to PR II Broncos should of won by just over 20 pts.

Great day claw ! 

Thank you Munny..........

Congratulations.

@kimoinsd808.............

@Brooklyncapper.............

@Tushpush....................

@kidd22.....................

@DogbiteWilliams................

Thanks for the kind words guys .............

week--- 5-1, won 2.35 units

season ---- 14-13, lost .95 units

Bounce Factor did it again, 2-1 on the day. 5-1 now.

My other system bounce back and avoided back to back losing weeks. Only 4-4 but with 2 winning weeks and 1 losing week.

Not counting the 7-2 run prior to making any plays on the system with games I did post but not play.

But this method my bounce along around .500 and then will go on a nice run of winning weeks so we remain patient. 

Great week Claw. Begrudgingly tailed you on the Chiefs last night. Stay hot!