NFL WEEK 18 ..........................................2023

Might be better they regressed at least a little bit not covering the spread.

What I am basically looking to do is use a combination of info to find the SB Winner/teams.

Brady was very good at beating my PR's and later in his career I did find the one thing he and his teams did consistently well every year that would be the best or amoung the best. And that was his efficiency with yards and plays. He was over the years the efficiency King. And Mahomes seems to be doing the same thing, not always the best in my PR's but amoung the best in efficiency. 

If we look at pts per plays margin ........................... since 2003....that is 20 SB's and 40 teams in the SB.

32 OF the 40 teams to make SB finished .090 or better. 

27 teams finished .11 or better

Of the 8 teams made the SB did not finish .090 or better 5 were WC surprise teams, only 3 were division winners. 3 out of the 40 teams were division winners well below .090 in other words teams with at least some expectations of making the SB.  Brady and the 2018 Pats were the highest rated below .090, they were .080, the other 2 well below. 2015 Denver and 2006 Cots with PM. You could make a case the Colts were not a good team and didn't have that high of expectations as their defense against their run was terrible untill Mike Sanders returned from injury.

1. Ravens .213

2. 9ers .203

3. Dallas .131

4. Bills .107

5. Dolphins .102

6. KC .058 ..................WELL below the .090, KC was above .090 every year they made SB, Brady never made the SB below the .080 when he did in 2018. KC is not very likely to make the SB. last year .116

10 Rams .021

11. Eagles .018 .................... last year .103

20 Browns _(-014) since Browns rank high in my PR's with Flacco as QB, will have to run the numbers in Flacco's games only but the question is can he sustain it, doubtful, sooner or later I suspect a INT will cost the Browns in the playoffs.

14 Lions .011....... turn out the lights people Lions won't be in the SB.

Brady was consistently above .090, only 3 maybe 4 times he was below, a team won't always win when above .090 but they are a very good team with a good shot to win. 

Brady did it more often then any team, not surprising then that he has more SB appearances/wins.

As has Mahomes, he has been above that every year except this year.

Here's something interesting, I'll double check this just to be sure, sometimes i write things down but can't make sense out of it. I think I have this right, but will check it later.

6 of 14 years at least one of the teams in the top 2 in pts per plays margin made the SB, of the 8 times no top 2 team made the SB 6 OF those 8 times one of those top 2 teams made the SB the next year.

last season the top 2 were .........................

1. 9ers 

2 Bills

Neither of these top 2 teams made the SB last season, this falls under the 6 of 8 years one of those teams make the  SB THE NEXT year which is this year.

Often the team that dominates in the regular season that gets knocked off in the playoffs wins a Super Bowl with lesser stats the next season.....the Bills are an example this year, and obviously the 49ers aren't, as San Fran's stats are wonderful this year too.

The Colts the year they won their only Super Bowl in the Manning era is a prime example....the year before they were big favorites and the Steelers knocked them off....that was the game Bettis of the Steelers fumbled at the goal line and the ball picked up with the defender running it back for a likely score and Rothlisberger made a combination of an amazing/lucky play to trip him up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUcDGLHCOi4&ab_channel=GermanoCoutinho

Teams that are home favorites that missed the playoffs the season before have been 5-19 ATS in the wildcard round.....Lions

Home favorites that won their last 8 home games  have gone 9-16 ATS in the first round of the playoffs.  (Obviously before the 17 game schedule everyone played 8 home games, but now half the teams play 9).......Cowboys

HF and tS(W@H, N=8)=8 and playoffs=1 and p:playoffs=0

Niners are this team 

@theclaw

Good work.  Good luck.

Great work all!

@joesap27..........

@DogbiteWilliams.........

@insatiable.........

@kcblitzkrieg............

Yes, does happen. 

Back in 80's and 90's was teams making the conference championship then losing and getting stronger the next year and winning SB

But pst 20 or so years it is like u say, weaker the next year Winning SB

I remember that game, crazy, the game nobody wanted to win.

Claw, I'm not sure you can use any stats or numerical analysis in Week 18 where Sean McVay has already said he's resting all the starters except Puca until he gets the record. And I think he only needs like 2 catches and 30 yards to get there. 

With that said, I dunno if I'd give 4 points when the Niners are resting starters as well and starting Darnold at QB. 

I agree but I could make regression plays on teams if they are a play and need to win or if they are a fade and don't need to win but opponent does need to win.

Those. 2 situations would fit  with a regression play.

For the most part a number of games who knows which players will play and how long they play.

Appreciate your work. 

@Mskeets..................

Steelers -3 (-115) over Ravens --- 1.15 units

Ravens in the regression zone, very good spot to fade them with Steelers needing the win.

Lean........................

Boys -14 over Wash

Oops .....I have Boys -13 not -14 on the lean.

I must of hit the 4 instead of the 3, and never look at it. Which I do at times.

Eagles deep in regression now have a more reasonable line to cover,  not sure if I could make a play on them but won't at all be surprised if the win and cover this week or next week in playoffs.

If Boys are rolling Wash then Eagles may not be as motivated to play hard, I would think not playing well they'd want to get their stuff together and put a little effort into playing better.

I will at least lean Eagles but let's wait out this line

QBPR ......................

Rudolph 85.2

Huntley 78.9

Ave Per Pass Attempt........................

Rudolph 6.07

Huntley 4.93............................ pretty dreadful

sack rate .............................

Rudolph 4.2%

Huntley 7.4%.......................fairly high sack rate but common amongst good running QB's

INT rate ..........................

Huntley 2.2% .............hey Huntley is slightly better in something

Rudoph 2.5% 

Record w/l......................................

Rudolph 7-4-1

Huntley 3-5

TD % ................................

Rudolph 4.1%

Huntley 2.2%

Rushing .......................................

Huntley 58.6 yds per game

Rudolph 8.17 yds

Ave per Rush ..............................

Huntley 4.4...............Huntley the much better runner

Rudolph 2.4

Rudolph has played spectacular over last 2 games, but so good I'd worry a little about regression, but regression may take more then 2 games to be a big regression, he may play not up to that level but I'd expect Ravens to regress more coming off to many wins and big wins.

.................................

LEAN .................................

Eagles -5 (-105)  over Giants

Broncos +3 over Raiders

two additional regression plays I could make but will only make a lean.

Pending LEAN ................................

Boys -13 over Wash

@theclaw

 Thanks for sharing with us your works n picks.    Your system works consistently for 18 wks and hopefully in playoff too, lol.    Whereas, many other people picks inconsistently one wk over another or first half of season vs last half season being off.     Again, thx!