NFL WEEK 18 ..........................................2023

Playoffs are coming ..............................

most all SB winners peak in total yards margin, in other words how much they out-gain their opponents per game in the 2cd half of the season.

Last Season the team improved by they most in the 2cd half was .................. 

Dallas +25.67.... if we don't include the final game with resting starters. ...........1-1 ATS

KC +21.65 ....... 2-1 ATS and won the SB

Of all the better teams the worst team in 2cd half was the Bills (-38.25) ........ 0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU, beat-up by Bengals 27-10.

this season most improved team in 2cd half of season ........................................

9ers +36.12

Bills +8.38

Ravens +3.13

Boys +1.63

these are the only 4 teams improved of the better teams.

team declined by the most ............................ this should be a no-brainer

1. Eagles (-69)

2. Dolphins (-23.32)

3. Lions (-27.19)

4. KC (-23.06)

History says this teams have little chance to win SB.

KC was the one of the most improved last year but they decline by one of the most this season.

Now, with all that said, I don't know if the amount you improve or declines matters, never looked into that as of yet. Last season it did seem to matter but too small A sample to reach any conclusions.

Ravens improved by a small amount if we don't count the final game not playing starters, we don't know the results yet but just saying.

Lions should be 2cd most declined not 3rd.

Interesting stuff, as always. Thanks Claw

Those are the top 4 no doubt the eye test backs up the numbers

Some interesting stuff there. Looks like my Bills may have a chance 

GL 

Good luck this week 

Eagles 

@theclaw

I'm curious as to how much the Rams have improved in the 2nd half using your method. Thanks. 

Nice season you have going. 

TX claw, NICE angle.

Will mess around at killersports , use some SDQL qerries for long term collaboration.

CATS;

Indeed, the RAMS are a nice darkhorse.

season = 2023 and team = Rams and points - o:points and week<8

season = 2023 and team = Rams and points - o:points and week>8

Shows a second half improvement of +21

A live candidate in this year's playoffs

Thanks for the information theclaw 

Good Luck this week

Disregard, did not place the bye week in it's proper place. So, first half is

season = 2023 and team = Rams and week<9  = -9

season = 2023 and team = Rams and week > 8 = +35

Improvement of +44

I think this metric has it's place in capping the playoffs , lets find the sweet spot.

This is a comparison of total points differential between 1st half and second half of the season separate to yardage metric by claw, it should reflect the same

stuff but maybe shine the light on redzone efficiency.

@theclaw

 THk 

Points Differential ..First 8 games vs Second 8 games

1. LAR +51

2. SF +38

3. BAL +34

4. DAL +22

5. DET - 19

6. MIA - 22

7. BUF -39

8. KC - 40

9. PHI - 68

Off these numbers, got to like LAR and DAL at their expected lines

LAR should read +45

Careful with your assumptions.....the team with the better record  compared to their present opponent their past 8 games, in the playoffs has been 65-87-5 ATS since 2002 in conference games.

tS(W, N=8)>oS(W, N=8) and playoffs=1 and season>2002 and C

In the Super Bowl?....3-13 ATS

tS(W, N=8)>oS(W, N=8) and playoffs=1 and season>2002 and not C

@jowchoo

I've been on the Rams and over the last few weeks. They cost me last week - they had the game covered late in the fourth quarter, then the Giants ran back a damn punt for 94 yards to get the back door cover. The Rams defense isn't too good, but they'll score a lot of points against ANYBODY. I had some nice futures on them to make the playoffs. Yes, they can definitely be a factor in the playoffs. Since RB Tyren Williams return from IR, the Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS. They have scored points in 24 consecutive quarters since Williams return! That just impressed the hell out of me. Six straight games and they've scored in every quarter. 

@garbagetime........................

@sportschat..........................

@ChOmP.............................

pretty much true, doubt any other team wins the SB.

Rams +4.5

As long as they improve is what really matters, not sure if how much they improve is important.

Good info...................................

possibly just have to be careful with regression if a team comes in way to hot

Interesting ......................