YTD (NFL): 32-37-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 9-14-1)
Man, still not where I want to be. Picked up a nice big play win this past Thursday so hoping to continue here. There are a couple of totals that I really like today and that have strong trends backing them. But I think I'm going to start going away from the trends as there is too many changes and they have not been serving me, obviously. Luckily I bet the over in "El Classico" so that has been a fun early watch. Tough to post soccer and as scintillating as I've been there I've been dropping units here so want to try and right this ship first and for all, before laying more into the NBA.
OVER 44 (NYJ/CIN)...BIG PLAY!!!: With Breece Hall active, I like my chances here. Let's not get confused, I know Hall is not Derrick Henry, but he is a very capable back that is a big part of the Jets offense. Their coach is miserable imo, not sure why they can never get that right, but the Cincy run D is also not very good, even with Hendrickson back. Sauce Gardner is missing for the Jets only helping the Bengals case for throwing and it seems like Chase Brown has found some room to run as well. The Bengals SHOULD win this game but I'm not sure it's not a competitive one that gets over this number. Plus 6 out of the last 8 have gone OVER between these two and 8 out of the past 11 road games the Jets have played have gone over.
UNDER 45 (MIAMI/ATL)...BIG PLAY!!!: Seven out of the last 10 played between these two has gone under. The immobile Kirk Cousins is back under center and I think the Miami defense is probably the best thing they have going for them, and that's not saying much. Having also ruled out Drake London, it's clear Atlanta will rely on the run which they should have success doing. But the real underrated player(s) is the Falcons defense. If they were able to limit Josh Allen a couple of weeks back, I'm pretty sure they will be able to limit Tua. Really like this spot for an UNDER given the missing pieces.
NEW ENGLAND FH (-3.5)...BIG PLAY!!!: Again, not sure how the Patriots dont' take it to the Browns. They have OWNED Cleveland albeit those were past years when the team might have been invincible. But not all of those matchups, as the Browns are just consistently not very good. With Dillon Gabriel set to start again, as he will be doing all year, the Patriots defense must be licking their chops as they line up against what is an absurdly inept Browns offense, even if Njoku is playing. Maybe the game goes over but, if that were to happen, I like my chances with a Drake Maye led offense. Plus, New England is 6-1 ATS in the FH this year, far and away the best team out the gate. They also average the THIRD most FH points per game at 15, and face a Cleveland squad that averages only 7, with a paltry 5.8 coming on the road.
I tried to eliminate one of the big plays but to be honest, I really love all three. Since the big plays haven't done so well, I guess this is my sink or swim moment. I also might have another angle for a FH play in the Philly game. I for one can respect the Giants but do not see them breaking the curse they have when playing in Philadelphia. Gonna past these then be back. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..
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