Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
POWER RATINGS II....................................................
balance heavy PR which rewards better defense and teams that don't turn the ball over on offense. Also rewards teams for winning each battle even if by a small amount which shows balance to win many battles at the same time within the game. Based on common denominators of SB champs. Measures teams each week then averages all games to find the rating.
1. Eagles 12.97
2 Vikings 9.07
3 Steelers 8.68
4 Jags 8.36
5 Rams 7.9
6. Saints 6.26
7 Pats 4.53
8 Falcons 4.24
9 KC 3.84
10 Panthers 2.51
11 Bills 2.12
12 Titans 1.44
MY LINES.................................................
Jags -9.24 over Bills
KC -5.4 over Titans
Rams -6.66 over Falcons
Saints -6.75 over Panthers
we have a play with a 6 pt diff to the closing line
no plays at this time, would have a lean to the Titans , all others lean to the same teams as PR I.
Here Steelers are alot stronger, best team in AFC but not by much over the Jags.
Pats still don't rate very high, but over the years Pats are the one team can beat this method because they always rate high in yards per point, they lead the league once again at +6.01
Will get into more on Pats later.
Eagles are clearly without question the best team with Wentz at QB, and would have been our favorite to win the title.
17 of our last 19 favorites have gone to the title game in all the sports we cover with 13 winning the title.
Last season we swept the board with all favorites winning the title, Pats in NFL, Warriors in NBA, Philly in Arena league and the Lynx in the Wnba.
We've been in Arena league for just 3 years and our favorite has won the title each season including a 12.5 dog and huge +380 ML play 2 years ago when we went against about every Arena league expert in the title game and rolled to a 14 pt win.
Unfortunately this year we won't have a favorite as the Power Ratings have spoken and the Eagles without Wentz are not the same team.
We could go with the 2cd best team but the probabilities of that team winning are not the same as they would be for the best team which hands-down is the Eagles with Wentz.
POWER RATINGS ii................................0-0 ATS
Vikings -5.81 over Falcons
Eagles -11.73 over Falcons
Pats -6.09 over Titans
Steelers -3.32 over Jags
with a 6 pt diff we have 1 play on the Titans, the line would need to drop to 12 for no play.
Eagles includes all games with Wentz, we have a 14.73 diff to the line, is Wentz worth 8.73 pts ? He needs to be worth more then 8.73 for us to have less then as 6 pt diff.
Since 2009 IN Divisional Round .......................................
6 pt diff to closing line ...........................8-3 ATS
in all games......23-8 SU , 18-12 ATS with a lean to my lines, - 1 game was a pick on my lines
went 3-1 ATS 5 times in the 8 years
2-2 ATS 1 time
1-3 ATS 2 times
The no. 1 team has done very well this round and in the playoffs................
2009 Vikings (13.83)rolled div round like 34-3
2010 Steelers(12.3) won and covered
2011 Texans (11.79) with Yates as rookie 3rd stringer rolled 34-10
2012 9ERS(14.07) rolled Packers by 14 with the whole world on Rodgers over Kap
2013 Seahawks(14.34) won by 8 , we got a push
2014 Seahawks (13.29)won and covered VS Panthers
2015 Panthers (15.29)won and covered
2016 Cowboys (10.83) our only 1st round loss but easily the worst no. 1 ranked team
Texans without their starting QB dropped off with backups in as did the Eagles, which makes every no. 1 ranked team except Cowboys over a 12 rating.
5 of 8 no.1 ranked made the SB with only Texans with a 3rd string QB, the lowest rated no. 1 Cowboys and the Vikings who should of, could of beat the Saints in NFC Championship game but did cover the Spread when Vikies had multiple fumbles and of course Farve being Farve with a late INT
I would not count the Eagles out.
home team less then 6 pt fav on my lines with a lean to dog......... 8-5 SU , 5-8 ATS