Interesting excepted notes I've read to ponder over: Pick your own poison folks , I’ve already made mine.
MNF Best bets: Who will the Eagles, Seahawks start at quarterback?
Matt Russell
If you took the Seahawks at +4 early last week, you've done good work potentially securing closing line value (CLV). This line is down to Eagles -3 because there's a bigger perceived drop-off from Jalen Hurts to Marcus Mariota than from Geno Smith to Drew Lock. However, we'll likely see another move if one team gets the green light for its starter and the other has to turn to its backup.
Let's look at how the point spread might shake down with the various quarterback matchups:
STARTING QUARTERBACK * PROJECTED LINE
Hurts vs. Smith. PHI -3
Hurts vs. Lock PHI -5.5
Mariota vs. Smith PHI -1
Mariota vs. Lock PHI -3
Considering what a common winning margin the number three is in football, the most likely singular result, no matter who starts, is Philadelphia winning by three points. That's why sportsbooks are willing to set the point spread at Eagles -3 without certainty about who's starting, as it would be a fair line with two of the four quarterback permutations.
As we await quarterback news, let that theory guide the way, betting on whichever side allows us to capture the key number of three. The ideal situation is that Hurts playing moves the line to 3.5 or higher.
The total has also moved with the starting quarterback uncertainty, dropping from as high as 48 down to 45. Over the last three games, the Eagles' and Seahawks' defenses rank among the five worst in yards per play. Philadelphia is without Darius Slay and Zach Cunningham, the latter forcing the team to rely on rookie Nolan Smith and newly-acquired Shaq Leonard - whom the Colts cut midseason.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
Interesting excepted notes I've read to ponder over: Pick your own poison folks , I’ve already made mine.
MNF Best bets: Who will the Eagles, Seahawks start at quarterback?
Matt Russell
If you took the Seahawks at +4 early last week, you've done good work potentially securing closing line value (CLV). This line is down to Eagles -3 because there's a bigger perceived drop-off from Jalen Hurts to Marcus Mariota than from Geno Smith to Drew Lock. However, we'll likely see another move if one team gets the green light for its starter and the other has to turn to its backup.
Let's look at how the point spread might shake down with the various quarterback matchups:
STARTING QUARTERBACK * PROJECTED LINE
Hurts vs. Smith. PHI -3
Hurts vs. Lock PHI -5.5
Mariota vs. Smith PHI -1
Mariota vs. Lock PHI -3
Considering what a common winning margin the number three is in football, the most likely singular result, no matter who starts, is Philadelphia winning by three points. That's why sportsbooks are willing to set the point spread at Eagles -3 without certainty about who's starting, as it would be a fair line with two of the four quarterback permutations.
As we await quarterback news, let that theory guide the way, betting on whichever side allows us to capture the key number of three. The ideal situation is that Hurts playing moves the line to 3.5 or higher.
The total has also moved with the starting quarterback uncertainty, dropping from as high as 48 down to 45. Over the last three games, the Eagles' and Seahawks' defenses rank among the five worst in yards per play. Philadelphia is without Darius Slay and Zach Cunningham, the latter forcing the team to rely on rookie Nolan Smith and newly-acquired Shaq Leonard - whom the Colts cut midseason.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
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