The Giants certainly have been impressive over their last 4 games but
the Saints were riding a 9 game straight up and spread winning streak
coming into San Francisco last week and most often the teams that are
considered to be the “hot” teams are the worst bets you can make in the
playoffs. The Giants’ 37-20 victory at Green Bay last week was
impressive but any good team that could manage to be positive in
turnovers against the Packers would be expected to win given that the
Pack were out-gained for the season and lived on turnovers. San
Francisco could also easily lose this game if they’re negative in
turnovers but that’s not likely to be the case and the Giants are in a
very negative technical spot in this game.
Teams that scored 35 points or more in the divisional round of the
playoffs are just 1-10 ATS on the road in the conference championship
game and teams that won despite allowing 19 points or more are just 2-17
ATS on the road in the championship game when not getting more than 9
points. The Niners, meanwhile, apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and
a 54-18-3 ATS playoff situation that combine to go 14-2 ATS when both
apply to the same game (2-0 ATS in the conference championship). San
Francisco also applies to a 13-0 ATS conference championship game angle
and the Niners are 8-0-1 ATS at home this season with the spread push
being a 3 point overtime loss as a 3 point dog (so they covered in that
game in regulation). With the technical analysis that strong I’m just
looking for the line to be fair and in this case it is.
As I mentioned last week, the Niners’ offense is much better with Adam
Snyder starting at right guard than it was in the 4 games that he didn’t
start (weeks 1 through 3 and week 12) and San Francisco averaged 6.1
yards per play last week against the Saints, so they’re certainly
capable of moving the ball when they need to. I rate San Francisco as
average offensively from a yards per play perspective but they’re
actually better than average because they run a system that protects the
ball (Alex Smith threw only 5 interceptions all season and they have
just 1 game in which they committed more than 1 turnover). The Giants’
defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season
but they are clearly better than that now. I decided to use only the 8
games in which all of their defensive linemen were healthy, as they are
now, and New York is 0.5 yppl better than average in those 8 games. My
math model projects 325 yards at 5.0 yppl for the 49ers in this game.
The Giants’ offense is very good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that
would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack, but San
Francisco’s defense is 0.5 yppl better than average for the season and
that unit did a good job of limiting the Saints to just 5.85 yppl in
last week’s win (an average defense would allow 6.5 yppl at home to the
Saints). My math model projects 341 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Giants in
this game.
New York is clearly better from a yards per play perspective, but the
Niners have superior special teams (2 points better than the Giants) and
my math model projects a 0.9 turnover advantage for the Niners in this
game. That’s much less than their +1.9 average turnover margin but
overall the math favors San Francisco by 3 points based on the projected
statistics and special teams. A compensated points model would favor
San Francisco by 6 ½ points at home without any adjustments, but
adjustments need to be made for the difference in actual turnover
margins of the two teams (+1.33 in favor of SF) from the projected
turnover margin of +0.9 and I also have dock San Francisco for the fact
that special teams performance tends to regress towards the mean (they
still have a 2 point edge, but that’s less than the difference in season
special teams ratings for these two teams). The adjusted points model
favors the Niners by 2 ½ points, so the fair line is between 2 ½ and 3
points and that’s where the line is. With the technical analysis so
strongly in favor of the Niners,
The Giants certainly have been impressive over their last 4 games but
the Saints were riding a 9 game straight up and spread winning streak
coming into San Francisco last week and most often the teams that are
considered to be the “hot” teams are the worst bets you can make in the
playoffs. The Giants’ 37-20 victory at Green Bay last week was
impressive but any good team that could manage to be positive in
turnovers against the Packers would be expected to win given that the
Pack were out-gained for the season and lived on turnovers. San
Francisco could also easily lose this game if they’re negative in
turnovers but that’s not likely to be the case and the Giants are in a
very negative technical spot in this game.
Teams that scored 35 points or more in the divisional round of the
playoffs are just 1-10 ATS on the road in the conference championship
game and teams that won despite allowing 19 points or more are just 2-17
ATS on the road in the championship game when not getting more than 9
points. The Niners, meanwhile, apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and
a 54-18-3 ATS playoff situation that combine to go 14-2 ATS when both
apply to the same game (2-0 ATS in the conference championship). San
Francisco also applies to a 13-0 ATS conference championship game angle
and the Niners are 8-0-1 ATS at home this season with the spread push
being a 3 point overtime loss as a 3 point dog (so they covered in that
game in regulation). With the technical analysis that strong I’m just
looking for the line to be fair and in this case it is.
As I mentioned last week, the Niners’ offense is much better with Adam
Snyder starting at right guard than it was in the 4 games that he didn’t
start (weeks 1 through 3 and week 12) and San Francisco averaged 6.1
yards per play last week against the Saints, so they’re certainly
capable of moving the ball when they need to. I rate San Francisco as
average offensively from a yards per play perspective but they’re
actually better than average because they run a system that protects the
ball (Alex Smith threw only 5 interceptions all season and they have
just 1 game in which they committed more than 1 turnover). The Giants’
defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season
but they are clearly better than that now. I decided to use only the 8
games in which all of their defensive linemen were healthy, as they are
now, and New York is 0.5 yppl better than average in those 8 games. My
math model projects 325 yards at 5.0 yppl for the 49ers in this game.
The Giants’ offense is very good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that
would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack, but San
Francisco’s defense is 0.5 yppl better than average for the season and
that unit did a good job of limiting the Saints to just 5.85 yppl in
last week’s win (an average defense would allow 6.5 yppl at home to the
Saints). My math model projects 341 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Giants in
this game.
New York is clearly better from a yards per play perspective, but the
Niners have superior special teams (2 points better than the Giants) and
my math model projects a 0.9 turnover advantage for the Niners in this
game. That’s much less than their +1.9 average turnover margin but
overall the math favors San Francisco by 3 points based on the projected
statistics and special teams. A compensated points model would favor
San Francisco by 6 ½ points at home without any adjustments, but
adjustments need to be made for the difference in actual turnover
margins of the two teams (+1.33 in favor of SF) from the projected
turnover margin of +0.9 and I also have dock San Francisco for the fact
that special teams performance tends to regress towards the mean (they
still have a 2 point edge, but that’s less than the difference in season
special teams ratings for these two teams). The adjusted points model
favors the Niners by 2 ½ points, so the fair line is between 2 ½ and 3
points and that’s where the line is. With the technical analysis so
strongly in favor of the Niners,
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