Bouncebacks - Week 8

YTD: 8-4

This week:

Tampa Bay -4.5 @ New Orleans. Line dropped from -5.5. Yeah, Mike Evans is out. Yeah, Rattler remains in.

Waiting on a second possible game: Miami +7 @ Atlanta. There's a decent chance this line will get up above a TD.

Just my personal thoughts, 

New Orleans plays better at home and its a division game and Tampas second straight road game. Tampa should win, but this could be a fg game. 

Atlanta is another team that plays much better at home. They have an elite rushing game and Miami is horrendous against the run, and Atlanta also strong defensively, plus Miami on second straight road game. 

Id be much more inclined to lay the points with Tampa than to back Miami.

Good luck 

Miami has gone to +7.5, but I'm still going to wait.

TB is now -3.5, and I'm seriously considering doubling this bet at -3.5 and -4.5. I really think this is one of those times where the market is reacting to only Tampa's team news, which is admittedly bad (Godwin and Irving confirmed out, as well as Evans), while ignoring the Saints' (they are bad, period). 

Good luck GT.  

Should have jumped on that +7.5 with Miami, I took them +7 this morning, and it's +6.5 now. That's how much people dislike Cousins.

I cashed out my TB bet and then doubled up on TB -3.5. Decided it was worth paying the juice to gain that point across the four.

I've also taken GB +3, something I feel better about now that I see that Pittsburgh is a top five Westgate pick. The Westgate top five are 15-20 on the season, and that's after going 10-5 the past three weeks. It is great to fade the consensus in the NFL. The other four top picks this week are Chi +6.5 (I've taken Bal -2.5), Houston, NE and Dallas.

2-0 so far, so I've bought back a little of my Tampa bet. A cover of -3.5 will be +1.2 units, a loss will be -1.5 units.

YTD: 10-4

I didn't play two of the wins, but with some good results elsewhere I'm at about +5 units on the season. Still awaiting the first twin peaks game, I live for those.

Week 9 won't have any plays unless Washington gets blown out tonight. The Vikings came close, but I'm happy not to have to take +9.5 at Detroit. 

The one instructive part of this week is that I waited, waited, waited on Miami to get a better line, didn't pull the trigger at the right time, was kind of sweating that half point. Same with Tampa, went through all of these machinations, and in the end neither point spread mattered, at all.

Maybe I'm just saying that because it's easy to be cavalier when you've gone 4-0.