As mentioned in my previous posts, plz take my initial picks with a grain of salt, It'll likely take me a few dozen games to get into the swing of things before win consistency supersedes initial win/loss volatility.
Today I'll be trying my hand in O/U's in this new era. Although O/U numbers are far more inflated than what I'm used to capping in the NBA, hoping the same capping formulas I used in the past will still apply and work.
Here are the next 3 GAMES I'LL BE CAPPING:
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.56:10 ET #5 RAPTORS-HAWKS : 239.5 6:10 ET #6 GRIZZ-PACERS: 232 3:40 ET
Pulling out my dusty old capping sheets and getting to work...!
FYI: Covers has a cap of posts per day for "New users" so I'm hoping I don't get cut off before I can post picks.
Anyone know a Mod I can contact to fix this limit?
GL ALL
“At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck.”-proverb
As mentioned in my previous posts, plz take my initial picks with a grain of salt, It'll likely take me a few dozen games to get into the swing of things before win consistency supersedes initial win/loss volatility.
Today I'll be trying my hand in O/U's in this new era. Although O/U numbers are far more inflated than what I'm used to capping in the NBA, hoping the same capping formulas I used in the past will still apply and work.
Here are the next 3 GAMES I'LL BE CAPPING:
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.56:10 ET #5 RAPTORS-HAWKS : 239.5 6:10 ET #6 GRIZZ-PACERS: 232 3:40 ET
Pulling out my dusty old capping sheets and getting to work...!
FYI: Covers has a cap of posts per day for "New users" so I'm hoping I don't get cut off before I can post picks.
Anyone know a Mod I can contact to fix this limit?
GL ALL
“At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck.”-proverb
Remember that properly capping O/U's involves a considerable amount of number crunching.
In the past I used the carroll predictive method, Its the only method that worked well for me so I stuck to it.
I'll be using this method to cap the modern NBA. The numbers now are much different in today's game so I'm hoping it implements itself well and produces profits.
If you're interested I will post a detailed example and simple breakdown of this method on my first pick for your reference.
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.5 6:10 ET
First consider PHX's season PPG of 116.8 and ORL's season PPG of 111.3 in accordance with first, second, third, and forth quarter averages of Average 56.7 1'st quarter points , 2'd quarter points 59.7, 3'rd quarter points 59.1 and 4th quarter points of 51.3 which yields : 226.8 PPG . Comparing that to where the market number sits at right now(227.5 @ 10:56AM ET) in comparison to assumed public consensus based on the season.
Also remember that in O/U its extremely important to know if the players that contribute most of the points are likely going to be getting the floor time needed reach their average numbers. CAP player minutes per game in the last 5 games. Capping the average minutes per game for the top 3 scorers on the Suns yields a plus / minus variance of +2.6% meaning the top 3 scorers (Booker 28.2PPG, DURANT 28.8PPG, BEAL 17.8PPG)have been seeing the floor an average of 2.6% more per game the last 5 games. Doing the same for ORL's top 3 (BANCHERO 22.6 PPG , WAGNER 20.6 PPG , ANTHONY 12.8) the variance is +3.2% Again, that means ORL's top 3 have been progressively beeing seeing the floor 3.2% more per game the last 5 games. Plus or Minus. there factors can effect this variance simply speaking, the top 3 on both these teams have been seeing consistently less floor time. This is called the FTV (Floor time variance).
Also important to look at average points in the last 5 games.
NOTE: OMIT the game if it went to OT . Use the total of the next most recent game.
Remember that properly capping O/U's involves a considerable amount of number crunching.
In the past I used the carroll predictive method, Its the only method that worked well for me so I stuck to it.
I'll be using this method to cap the modern NBA. The numbers now are much different in today's game so I'm hoping it implements itself well and produces profits.
If you're interested I will post a detailed example and simple breakdown of this method on my first pick for your reference.
#4 SUNS-MAGIC : 227.5 6:10 ET
First consider PHX's season PPG of 116.8 and ORL's season PPG of 111.3 in accordance with first, second, third, and forth quarter averages of Average 56.7 1'st quarter points , 2'd quarter points 59.7, 3'rd quarter points 59.1 and 4th quarter points of 51.3 which yields : 226.8 PPG . Comparing that to where the market number sits at right now(227.5 @ 10:56AM ET) in comparison to assumed public consensus based on the season.
Also remember that in O/U its extremely important to know if the players that contribute most of the points are likely going to be getting the floor time needed reach their average numbers. CAP player minutes per game in the last 5 games. Capping the average minutes per game for the top 3 scorers on the Suns yields a plus / minus variance of +2.6% meaning the top 3 scorers (Booker 28.2PPG, DURANT 28.8PPG, BEAL 17.8PPG)have been seeing the floor an average of 2.6% more per game the last 5 games. Doing the same for ORL's top 3 (BANCHERO 22.6 PPG , WAGNER 20.6 PPG , ANTHONY 12.8) the variance is +3.2% Again, that means ORL's top 3 have been progressively beeing seeing the floor 3.2% more per game the last 5 games. Plus or Minus. there factors can effect this variance simply speaking, the top 3 on both these teams have been seeing consistently less floor time. This is called the FTV (Floor time variance).
Also important to look at average points in the last 5 games.
NOTE: OMIT the game if it went to OT . Use the total of the next most recent game.
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