One Stab Saturday

Timberwolves +4(-120)3x

ML +135 1x

When analyzing the line,  opened at -4 OKC DK and -3.5 most books including BM--line fluctuated betwee -2.5-3 last 24hrs and now at -3.5 solid with extra baby juice on the dog here.

OKC was a solid -7 to -8 home favorite and covered. Today, OKC is giving up a solid 5 points on the road. Although our eyes say WOW what a value right? Some say sweep, Minny rolls over tonight...69 percent handle on OKC ML easy money. Again, looks too good to be true to be taking the banker here...

OKC is 0-5 ATS on the road these playoffs. Going to stick with the trend here. 

Defensive rating on the road 8.1 point decrease vs. at home. Minny on the other hand scored 9.1 points avg. more at home vs. the road.

X's and O's--Timberwolves are more effective with Reid in the 5 spot with more options on offense. Gobert just plain sucks on offense. Minny can and will score with a balanced offense tonight spreading the floor creating space for Edwards. Gobert complicates offense and hope Finch figures it out. Let's see J. Clark a bit more give Conley/Edwards a blow, expand out to a 9 man rotation. 

Again buying low and selling high.

BOL

T50

@tweets50

The only 3.5 showing in the Covers line history since early Fri. was at MGM. Two well known offshores didn't show that number since early Fri. either. If I had that number available I would have taken it for 1.5x. As it was, I took +131 for the same 1.5x.

Let's get it!

GL  on your play appreciate your fair comments respectfully mah man @tweets50 

Followed the line really closely all night bro. Locked it the best line i could. Bookmaker. 

Good luck. 

No problem. Keep at it. 

@tweets50

 You seem to follow this stuff pretty closely. Why is Bookmaker selling 1/2 points on these games for 8 or 9 cents when they usually charge 10 or 11?

@tweets50

 Get it Tweets....

50 

I'm assuming they wanted okc money more juice was on that side all night into the morning. When you have a -2 or -2.5 bettors a prone to start that way and even buy half - 2 easy peasy. I just find that most times than not they want OKC money. The slight extra juice on -2.5 or 3. So what happened was juice was only +106 +3.5, so I made a decision to go +4 buy that extra half at a discount in my opinion. Getting a 1.5 points in a overnight line is what I found value in besides making sure we are on the same side.

I don't believe they are trying to sell points but giving you a illusion on what to bet. They want OKC money. Any -1 -2 -2.5 should be vetted thoroughly. 

Example

-2.5 -106

+2.5 +104

The normal 10 point juice does not happen here. I felt like ML was the side for Minny from the beginning. As the line seemed like money was moving the line to -3.5, I don't budge my original diagnosis on the line movement. 69 percent on ML okc. NO reason to keep moving the line unless books wanted more okc money. 

Whenever you run into juice being different from the normal -110. Need to wait to see how the line moves and reacts before gametime. 

IF that clarifies a bit great! 

wow 945 pm  eastern and i see minn    CRUSHING      

Congrats Timberwolves backers, ML backers! And OVER backers. 

@tweets50

@tweets50

 masterpiece sir 

Don't quite understand. Are you saying that they up the juice on a side they get action on when they want more action on that side, and leave as is when they DON'T want more action? Or similarly up the line on the favorite they're getting action on if they want even more action on that favorite, but leave as is when they don't want more action? I would think that a lower line and/or less juice would be more of an enticement to take a side, not less. After all, you'd be getting better value with the lower line/juice. So why would bettors be enticed to bet a side when they're now getting less value than they were before?

(That actually doesn't address what I was originally asking, but I'll offer that up when I have more time later)