Miami has been in a major funk lately, I like the primetime game tonight to snap em out of it. Since the big 3 landed in Miami they have struggled against elite defensive teams (Chicago, Boston, Indiana, etc) as these teams are able to slow the game into a halfcourt game limiting fastbreak points and then clog up the paint defensively to limit Lebron/Wade's slashing. I don't like the way Portland matches up in this sense. Portland's guards lack the size and athleticism to matchup with Wade and especially Lebron. Batum is tall but lacks strength and should get swallowed up if Lebron decides to head into the paint.
Portland has been playing as a relatively small team this year which doesn't bode well for them in this one as there is maybe no team in the league that plays better small ball then the heat when they're able to move Lebron to the 4 and run. Portland doesn't really have a defensive big who can play help D and defend the rim. Aldridge I still don't believe is 100% and should have about equal production to bosh, and while I'm a huge believer in Lilliard, he isn't going to be able to makeup for for the disadvantages at the 2 and 3 positions that Portland have.
Miami has been on a bit of a slide, making it easy to forget how good they can be. I see a primetime trip to Portland as being that reminder of what Miami can be. Portland just can't match up with Miami in a small ball game.
4 units: New York @ Indiana over 184
Lines this low usually only coming out when 2 strong defensive teams are matching up. Indiana is undoubtedly one of the strongest defensive teams in the league, but still give up 89.5ppg on the year. New York on the other hand gives up 98.8 ppg on the road while scoring 101.4. Indiana may slow the pace down a bit in this one but they should be able to score 95+ on New York. Melo being out doesn't really bother me as while a great scorer, the pace is often slowed as NY tries to set up Melo. With JR Smith and Novak getting more minutes tonight, the Knicks will be able to spread out the court and hopefully pick the pace up. With JR's propensity to dribble down and jack quick shots I don't think the pace will be a problem, and with Novak's unable to defend a soul I think this one goes over.
Miami has been in a major funk lately, I like the primetime game tonight to snap em out of it. Since the big 3 landed in Miami they have struggled against elite defensive teams (Chicago, Boston, Indiana, etc) as these teams are able to slow the game into a halfcourt game limiting fastbreak points and then clog up the paint defensively to limit Lebron/Wade's slashing. I don't like the way Portland matches up in this sense. Portland's guards lack the size and athleticism to matchup with Wade and especially Lebron. Batum is tall but lacks strength and should get swallowed up if Lebron decides to head into the paint.
Portland has been playing as a relatively small team this year which doesn't bode well for them in this one as there is maybe no team in the league that plays better small ball then the heat when they're able to move Lebron to the 4 and run. Portland doesn't really have a defensive big who can play help D and defend the rim. Aldridge I still don't believe is 100% and should have about equal production to bosh, and while I'm a huge believer in Lilliard, he isn't going to be able to makeup for for the disadvantages at the 2 and 3 positions that Portland have.
Miami has been on a bit of a slide, making it easy to forget how good they can be. I see a primetime trip to Portland as being that reminder of what Miami can be. Portland just can't match up with Miami in a small ball game.
4 units: New York @ Indiana over 184
Lines this low usually only coming out when 2 strong defensive teams are matching up. Indiana is undoubtedly one of the strongest defensive teams in the league, but still give up 89.5ppg on the year. New York on the other hand gives up 98.8 ppg on the road while scoring 101.4. Indiana may slow the pace down a bit in this one but they should be able to score 95+ on New York. Melo being out doesn't really bother me as while a great scorer, the pace is often slowed as NY tries to set up Melo. With JR Smith and Novak getting more minutes tonight, the Knicks will be able to spread out the court and hopefully pick the pace up. With JR's propensity to dribble down and jack quick shots I don't think the pace will be a problem, and with Novak's unable to defend a soul I think this one goes over.
Dont know men, looks pretty risky the over in Indiana game.Always tough with this slow paced and defensive minded teams.They drug you into their physicall game, they outmuscle you and set the tone.Indiana played some impressive defense as of late, and they do defend the 3's pretty good, and we all know Knicks is living and dying from 3 point line.In New York, Knicks barely put 88 against Indiana this season.
Dont know men, looks pretty risky the over in Indiana game.Always tough with this slow paced and defensive minded teams.They drug you into their physicall game, they outmuscle you and set the tone.Indiana played some impressive defense as of late, and they do defend the 3's pretty good, and we all know Knicks is living and dying from 3 point line.In New York, Knicks barely put 88 against Indiana this season.
^That's always the risk. New York has been good offensively and when Melo doesn't play they've actually struggled defensively. If NY can hit a few 3s and score 90+ points it probably goes over. If Indiana can shut them down and hold them to 75-80 it obv goes under. That's the play. I like New York to find moderate success. 90-95 points.
^That's always the risk. New York has been good offensively and when Melo doesn't play they've actually struggled defensively. If NY can hit a few 3s and score 90+ points it probably goes over. If Indiana can shut them down and hold them to 75-80 it obv goes under. That's the play. I like New York to find moderate success. 90-95 points.
I'm expecting NY to try and match up with Indi's bigs. There's just no way Camby and Chandler don't log in huge minutes here. Shumpert also practiced yesterday although he may or may not play. When they played SA they went with their big men. Why not here in this situation? It would be a good test for them. I'm leaning Under as of now. BOL.
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I'm expecting NY to try and match up with Indi's bigs. There's just no way Camby and Chandler don't log in huge minutes here. Shumpert also practiced yesterday although he may or may not play. When they played SA they went with their big men. Why not here in this situation? It would be a good test for them. I'm leaning Under as of now. BOL.
Looking good tonight NC. Tough finish with the Spurs -13 yesterday, everything looked promising leading up to the fourth quarter. Sadly backed away from ORL +12 for STK went with ATL -4 and sadly they flopped against CLE inexplicably. Horford and Smith postgame cited effort which is a killer because matchup-wise they should've smothered Cleveland.
As for tonight, I like both MIA -3 and IND -4.5, I think like you said, they show up in a primetime game, but I went with IND -4.5 for STK as without Melo I feel they will struggle against a strong defensive unit. 6-3 on the month time to climb back to the top of the board.
Looking good tonight NC. Tough finish with the Spurs -13 yesterday, everything looked promising leading up to the fourth quarter. Sadly backed away from ORL +12 for STK went with ATL -4 and sadly they flopped against CLE inexplicably. Horford and Smith postgame cited effort which is a killer because matchup-wise they should've smothered Cleveland.
As for tonight, I like both MIA -3 and IND -4.5, I think like you said, they show up in a primetime game, but I went with IND -4.5 for STK as without Melo I feel they will struggle against a strong defensive unit. 6-3 on the month time to climb back to the top of the board.
Like it runstopper. If i had to take a side i've come around and would take Indy. They've been dynamite at home. And really Indy vs New York i don't think either is much better then the other. I see them currently as the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the east and think it would be an awesome playoff series if they matched up. Should be a good game.
Like it runstopper. If i had to take a side i've come around and would take Indy. They've been dynamite at home. And really Indy vs New York i don't think either is much better then the other. I see them currently as the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the east and think it would be an awesome playoff series if they matched up. Should be a good game.
Agreed they aren't that far apart, AND, Indy has been without Granger, their 20 ppg scorer for the whole season thus far. His return should provide a spark on offense that they've lacked to this point.
Agreed they aren't that far apart, AND, Indy has been without Granger, their 20 ppg scorer for the whole season thus far. His return should provide a spark on offense that they've lacked to this point.
^i may be in the minority her but I think granger coming back hurts Indy. Granger being out means Paul George has to step up and elevate his game. The only real elite talent or potential on Indy is George. The only real way for Indy to take that next step is by George taking that step which he needs to have the reins of the team for. Granger is a slightly above average scorer at best and has been underwhelming last year and a half/ two years. For Indy to benefit from granger coming back, George has to keep a large role with granger taking more of a back seat.
^i may be in the minority her but I think granger coming back hurts Indy. Granger being out means Paul George has to step up and elevate his game. The only real elite talent or potential on Indy is George. The only real way for Indy to take that next step is by George taking that step which he needs to have the reins of the team for. Granger is a slightly above average scorer at best and has been underwhelming last year and a half/ two years. For Indy to benefit from granger coming back, George has to keep a large role with granger taking more of a back seat.
I didn't realize they play the same position I thought George was a hybrid. Well Vogel thus far has pressed all the right buttons, I would hope he would integrate them in a way that benefits Indy, whether it be a size shift by having one of them play at the 2/4 or having one of them lead the 2nd unit. Because your right there's potential to offset one another.
I didn't realize they play the same position I thought George was a hybrid. Well Vogel thus far has pressed all the right buttons, I would hope he would integrate them in a way that benefits Indy, whether it be a size shift by having one of them play at the 2/4 or having one of them lead the 2nd unit. Because your right there's potential to offset one another.
^Sorry didnt mean about they have to play the same position. You could play both of them but as far as development I think George needs that role and has benefited for Granger being out IMO.
^Sorry didnt mean about they have to play the same position. You could play both of them but as far as development I think George needs that role and has benefited for Granger being out IMO.
Side topic/question, do you do NFL spreads? If so, just wanted to hear your thoughts on this weekend, as you seem to have your head on straight, nice to bounce ideas off other logical minds. From your threads you seem to be practical and analyze without going to far off the deep end. Kind of find it hard to take much from trends that encompass several years, teams which may or may not resemble the current matchup.
The two AFC matchups are no-brainers as I expect both DEN -9 and NE -9.5 to take care of their opponents with ease. On the NFC side I see an upset likely with SEA +2, and am leaning on SF -3 but am not sold. Your thoughts?
Side topic/question, do you do NFL spreads? If so, just wanted to hear your thoughts on this weekend, as you seem to have your head on straight, nice to bounce ideas off other logical minds. From your threads you seem to be practical and analyze without going to far off the deep end. Kind of find it hard to take much from trends that encompass several years, teams which may or may not resemble the current matchup.
The two AFC matchups are no-brainers as I expect both DEN -9 and NE -9.5 to take care of their opponents with ease. On the NFC side I see an upset likely with SEA +2, and am leaning on SF -3 but am not sold. Your thoughts?
No but your right, Granger has always been an alpha male and only now with him out has George grown, therefore if Granger returns and assumes that role again George will regress.
No but your right, Granger has always been an alpha male and only now with him out has George grown, therefore if Granger returns and assumes that role again George will regress.
Side topic/question, do you do NFL spreads? If so, just wanted to hear your thoughts on this weekend, as you seem to have your head on straight, nice to bounce ideas off other logical minds. From your threads you seem to be practical and analyze without going to far off the deep end. Kind of find it hard to take much from trends that encompass several years, teams which may or may not resemble the current matchup.
The two AFC matchups are no-brainers as I expect both DEN -9 and NE -9.5 to take care of their opponents with ease. On the NFC side I see an upset likely with SEA +2, and am leaning on SF -3 but am not sold. Your thoughts?
I do NFL but don't post them really. Not as successful in NFL.
I'm a diehard Ravens fan and i think they'll be able to keep it close (no matter how biased). Key stat I see in that game is the Ravens have the #1 redzone D in the league, and they were able to get that with a constant carousel on D over the year. Last week was the first time Suggs, Lewis, Reed, and Ngata have been on the field together for a game. The ravens are a team that when they put it together are a scary team, its just those times have been few and far between. I like where they're at though. If the redzone ravens D can force a few drives to stall into fgs I think they can stick around. I don't think the Broncos are a team that benefit from a week off. They were red hot and really had no injuries to tend to. Ravens historically havent gotten blown out by 10+ very often. Denver def has the pieces to but I'll be taking the ravens. I think Broncos win by 3-7 points with a slim slim chance ravens win but it won't be a blowout.
I agree with New England. Houston looked incredibly relieved to beat Cinci in a game Cinci didn't even show up for. Not a good sign for a team going into foxborough. Patriots have been real good against the run which is what Houston thrives off of. Only real weakness in Patriots is going over the top of their secondary. Something Houston can't do. Schaub has looked awful while this is just the 6th game all year Hernandez and Gronk have been on the field at the same time. Ton of points but dont see really any angle for Houston. They seem to be regressing almost weekly.
NFC games I haven't dived into super deep but I like Atlanta and GB. Reasons being that Atlanta with Matt Ryan have been almost unbeatable at home. I've ragged on Atlanta all year as underachieving but in the end they found ways to win games which is something valueable this game. If Atlanta brings everything they have and play to the top of their potential and Seattle does the same, Atlanta wins. Lets not forget Seattle is not a great road team and their youth could hurt them here. Everyone wants to hype seattle after last week but they looked like they were going to get routed before RG3s knee gave out. Its a much different thing to ask these big aggressive Seattle corners to run up and down the field in a dome covering Julio and Roddie White then it is to ask them to play outside against NFC West teams they've played against this year. Arizona = no Qb. SF = no real wr threats. STL = no real wr threats. I think the Atlanta pass game will be unlike anything they've matched up with on the road in a dome. They played GB and NE early on but that was in Seattle.
For GB I'm going to take what i think is the better team. An experienced, probably hall of fame qb vs a qb whos played 8 games. GB defense is coming back finally healthy, same with their WRs. Kaepernick is much more likely to have the 'overwhelmed rookie' game while you kinda know what you're getting with Rodgers. SF has struggled to contain the pass rush recently while if Justin Smith is hampered, that will be a huge impact on the SF D as he apparently calls the stunts and blitz packages on the line according to football insiders.
Side topic/question, do you do NFL spreads? If so, just wanted to hear your thoughts on this weekend, as you seem to have your head on straight, nice to bounce ideas off other logical minds. From your threads you seem to be practical and analyze without going to far off the deep end. Kind of find it hard to take much from trends that encompass several years, teams which may or may not resemble the current matchup.
The two AFC matchups are no-brainers as I expect both DEN -9 and NE -9.5 to take care of their opponents with ease. On the NFC side I see an upset likely with SEA +2, and am leaning on SF -3 but am not sold. Your thoughts?
I do NFL but don't post them really. Not as successful in NFL.
I'm a diehard Ravens fan and i think they'll be able to keep it close (no matter how biased). Key stat I see in that game is the Ravens have the #1 redzone D in the league, and they were able to get that with a constant carousel on D over the year. Last week was the first time Suggs, Lewis, Reed, and Ngata have been on the field together for a game. The ravens are a team that when they put it together are a scary team, its just those times have been few and far between. I like where they're at though. If the redzone ravens D can force a few drives to stall into fgs I think they can stick around. I don't think the Broncos are a team that benefit from a week off. They were red hot and really had no injuries to tend to. Ravens historically havent gotten blown out by 10+ very often. Denver def has the pieces to but I'll be taking the ravens. I think Broncos win by 3-7 points with a slim slim chance ravens win but it won't be a blowout.
I agree with New England. Houston looked incredibly relieved to beat Cinci in a game Cinci didn't even show up for. Not a good sign for a team going into foxborough. Patriots have been real good against the run which is what Houston thrives off of. Only real weakness in Patriots is going over the top of their secondary. Something Houston can't do. Schaub has looked awful while this is just the 6th game all year Hernandez and Gronk have been on the field at the same time. Ton of points but dont see really any angle for Houston. They seem to be regressing almost weekly.
NFC games I haven't dived into super deep but I like Atlanta and GB. Reasons being that Atlanta with Matt Ryan have been almost unbeatable at home. I've ragged on Atlanta all year as underachieving but in the end they found ways to win games which is something valueable this game. If Atlanta brings everything they have and play to the top of their potential and Seattle does the same, Atlanta wins. Lets not forget Seattle is not a great road team and their youth could hurt them here. Everyone wants to hype seattle after last week but they looked like they were going to get routed before RG3s knee gave out. Its a much different thing to ask these big aggressive Seattle corners to run up and down the field in a dome covering Julio and Roddie White then it is to ask them to play outside against NFC West teams they've played against this year. Arizona = no Qb. SF = no real wr threats. STL = no real wr threats. I think the Atlanta pass game will be unlike anything they've matched up with on the road in a dome. They played GB and NE early on but that was in Seattle.
For GB I'm going to take what i think is the better team. An experienced, probably hall of fame qb vs a qb whos played 8 games. GB defense is coming back finally healthy, same with their WRs. Kaepernick is much more likely to have the 'overwhelmed rookie' game while you kinda know what you're getting with Rodgers. SF has struggled to contain the pass rush recently while if Justin Smith is hampered, that will be a huge impact on the SF D as he apparently calls the stunts and blitz packages on the line according to football insiders.
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