Fish's Slippery Player Picks - 11/5 (YTD: 19-7)

Bit of a heartbreaker yesterday with both bets falling by a single number, but that was bound to happen sooner or later. Nothing I love in the early games but have one the Heat game and potentially another one or two for the later ones.

Heat @ Nuggets - Simone Fontecchio over 7.5 points

Fontecchio has been an absolute sparkplug off the bench for the Heat, averaging nearly 13 points in 20 minutes per game while shooting over 50% from long range. Obviously the latter of those numbers won't sustain, but even so this line seems low, particularly if you can get it at $2 as I did. I'm usually loathe to take guys who are relying on threes given its inevitable variability, but Fontecchio is shooting just about every time he gets the ball and making a few plays inside the arc here and there as well. His minutes will be down slightly now that Norm Powell is back, but they only dropped a couple of minutes when Powell made his return last game and Fontecchio still managed 11 points (plus he had 13, 13 and 14 in the three opening games of the season when Powell played). Given Fontecchio has scored at least 9 points every game this season, this number is too low and hopefully the Italian can get us back on the winners' list with a handful of long range daggers. 

Heat @ Nuggets - Jaime Jaquez Jr over 3.5 assists

Jaquez Jr has had a really strong start to his second season in the league, averaging nearly 30 minutes off the bench for 17 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He's had some really good scoring games but while I don't mind his line of 12.5, he has been a little erratic in his scoring, but the opposite is true for his passing. After dishing out just one assist in hiis opening game of the season, Jaquez Jr has passed this line in six consecutive games and had at least 5 dimes in all but one of those. He's really aggressive with ball in hand, which he has a lot, and while he's showing his wares this season as an inside scorer, he's also demonstrating his ability as a creator. He also spends plenty of time on the floor with the bench unit and gets the keys to the offense, so the return of Norm Powell doesn't affect him as much as it might some others.

I'll likely have one or two more for the Warriors/Kings game but just waiting on lineup confirmation.

I do not like prop bets at all. They have been around forever but are way more prevalent now since legalization and the wide array of sportsbooks offering them on a vast scale. But I enjoy reading your analysis for these. Good luck 

@MatthewJL46 Thanks mate. A lot less effort goes into the lines by the bookies than does for regular lines, particularly for lower profile players, so I think there are much better prospects of finding an edge.

One more for the late games.

Warriors @ Kings - Brandon Podziemski over 4.5 assists

This line has gone up a little from what it would be if the Warriors had a full-strength line-up, but not by enough I don't think. Podz' last five games have yielded 6, 4, 3, 3, and 4 assists, similar to what his average has been over his two seasons in the league and what it will likely be this season. But that's with Butler, Curry and Green in the line-up, none of whom are playing tonight. The Warriors have little left in the way of ball-handlers so Podziemski will be largely running the show, likely playing more minutes than usual and facilitating the offense even more than usual. I expect plenty of Podz and plenty of Kuminga tonight, though with Kuminga's points line all the way up to 23.5 I much prefer this assist line. Boosting Podziemski's assist line by just one in the absence of the Warriors' three primary ball-handlers is nowhere near enough.

Your remarks don't make much sense...you don't like props cause they have been around a long time? Umm, okay...way more prevalent? That is far from a bad thing...it gives prop players more guys to research and find winning plays for, plus with all books having lots of props, it gives bettors a chance to shop for the best odds...you are clearly not seeing things clearly when it comes to props