This Week: 8-7
Monday: 6-4
It's a chalky Tuesday.
Boston Celtics -5.0 or nothing at all. This game looks trap or whatever but don't think too much. Indiana is very competitive at home and has proven that they can beat good teams. I just like this spot for the Celtics coming from that Christmas game lost to the Magic. Good situation for them to wipe off that bad defeat allowing the Magic to get back in the 2nd half. I was hoping the Pacers win that one against the Grizzlies so it will make it even a better spot here but I guess they are still not that better of a road team. Shaq wasn't very beneficial in his return. He was -13 in the +/- category and has let a lot of easy buckets in the defensive end. I believe he'll be in a much better form come this game. Also, defensively Boston got this team covered. Hibbert will have a hard time in the paint with Boston's size and Indiana will have to rely a lot on Granger for the lift.
It's time to ride the Magic Express again. Orlando Magic -7.5 for me. It's not that they are getting better production from the new guys. Jason Richardson, Hedo and Gilbert isn't really the difference maker for the Magic. It's the other 3 players that's doing the damage and helping them get on a 3 game streak that broke that of the Spurs and the Celtics. Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson and JJ Redick is playing a lot better and responding with postive results to the minutes given to them. Cleveland loses by double digit here as well. I don't see them being able to compete with the Magic.
Here's a good one. Remember that I mentioned how LeBron James turns into some crazed fanatic the louder the booing and negativity the crowd gives him? I guess that's the very reason why Miami looks way softer at home than they are playing on the road. They don't blow teams out at home as much as they do on the road. They do play a lot to their tempo and at the same time limiting their opponent to the very least say 90.8 points. I'm taking my chances with New York Knicks +9.5. This time, Raymond Felton need to get his groove on and get to double digit in scoring if they would want to cover the spread. Yes, I don't expect them to win in fact I'm borderline on this thinking the Heat win by 7 to 8 points. What I worry is that the Knicks' front court never had a lid on it. If you want an almost sure cover in this spread it's to limit Bosh and keep up with either LeBron or Wade's scoring. That being said, Amare has always allowed the other team's big to score on him. If you can see a Bosh prop in scoring I'd take it. He'd probably drop 20+ on the Knicks. Anyway, banking on LeBron to not have another triple double against them and for the Knicks to keep the game UNDER 204.0 to have a clear shot at the cover. The Knicks forgot to play in the 2nd half and could've made it a game if they did in their first meeting. If things look bleak, there's always the Miami 2nd half and 3rd quarter to make money.
Holding out on the TOR@DAL play. The line should move depending on Dirk's status. As of now, 12.5 points is a bit too much for them at the moment then again Toronto will be without their primary scorer in Bargnani in this game. I believe the best play at the moment is the UNDER 208.0 regardless of which player show up. Raptor's bench suddenly upgraded to the starting 5 will have a lot of chemistry problem. Dallas at home is an even better defensive team and so at the very least it's a sure thing that they'd allow for less than 92 points for the Raptors.
Line finally caught up for the Bucks. After being a crazy good ATS team last year, they came back to be the opposite. Bucks will be playing back to back after the holiday and should still feel a bit of that Christmas day jitters. I believe Bucks will be limited somewhere around 80 points as well and Chicago will most likely get a jump on them. Kurt Thomas is proving to be a nice substitute, rebounding and doing every little intangibles in both ends of the court. Boozer and Rose can really coexist and still get their numbers. Bucks will be heavily relying on Andrew Bogut like they did last night against the Hawk and with him playing for 43 minutes he should feel the fatigue of playing back to back games. The play here is Chicago Bulls -8.0. I'm afraid the UNDER is a two points too low for my taste and it has the makings (like the Atlanta total) to hover a point or two above or below the total so really huge risk IMO. If you ask me, a rough estimate would be the Bucks going for at least 80 and the Bulls for say 85 to 90. It could fall around 175ish and having the total just 3.5 points near it isn't a good sign for me.
San Antonio Spurs -3.0. Because the Lakers will be lazy tomorrow and prolly pick up their game after seeing they went 0-3 the last 3 games. That Christmas day game is probably either one of Phil Jackson's mind games on the Heat or they are just not interested to play during the holiday. Beats me, I just wanted to eat, get drunk and not exert too much energy last Christmas. LOL. UNDER 197.5 is also a good bet since both teams always play each other too well that they know how to defend the other even if they try not too. Oh yeah, and you gotta love going against "the lakers won't lose 3 in a row" angle.
BOL.