I respectively have to disagree on the Celtics and Clippers plays. The opposite direction in both (in my opinion) is the right choice. I love the magic @+4.5
I respectively have to disagree on the Celtics and Clippers plays. The opposite direction in both (in my opinion) is the right choice. I love the magic @+4.5
I wanna ask you something CMM, don't you think the line for Indy/Net game is way too low? The last time Net @ Indy they got blow out 32 pts. Do you think a HUGE revenge may come into play here?
I wanna ask you something CMM, don't you think the line for Indy/Net game is way too low? The last time Net @ Indy they got blow out 32 pts. Do you think a HUGE revenge may come into play here?
Nets need all the help in offense they could get and losing Jordan Farmar is pretty big. He averages close to 10ppg and almost 5 dimes that's like a +20 in offense missing for the Nets. They are 1-4 SU/ATS without him. I'd throw the revenge angle here since the Nets brought it upon themselves seeing 24-58 in points in the paint. What's good when two teams played each other already is that you can tell (basing on the players' average) which won't happen again. For the Nets, I doubt anything would change and more or less get their average of 90ish. Indiana shouldn't be getting 30 from Dunleavy again, 10+ points would be a good estimate. With that Pacers could still get to around 95ish which is still more than the Nets. Pacers' with the new coach has allowed the young players like Collison, Hibbert, Hansbrough and George to get into the offensive mix which has proven to be effective. Pacers are 13-8 after a rest and despite being a 7-16 road team, they are still a lot better than the Nets (also can be seen from their head-to-head matchup from last season)
Nets need all the help in offense they could get and losing Jordan Farmar is pretty big. He averages close to 10ppg and almost 5 dimes that's like a +20 in offense missing for the Nets. They are 1-4 SU/ATS without him. I'd throw the revenge angle here since the Nets brought it upon themselves seeing 24-58 in points in the paint. What's good when two teams played each other already is that you can tell (basing on the players' average) which won't happen again. For the Nets, I doubt anything would change and more or less get their average of 90ish. Indiana shouldn't be getting 30 from Dunleavy again, 10+ points would be a good estimate. With that Pacers could still get to around 95ish which is still more than the Nets. Pacers' with the new coach has allowed the young players like Collison, Hibbert, Hansbrough and George to get into the offensive mix which has proven to be effective. Pacers are 13-8 after a rest and despite being a 7-16 road team, they are still a lot better than the Nets (also can be seen from their head-to-head matchup from last season)
Philly had their way against New York twice this season already. Knicks always have one quarter where they lay an egg which costs them the game. Elton Brand has always been big against them since Amare could barely put a lid on the man he's defending. Anyway, I should make this shorter and the more I look into the game the more I'm compelled to not playing a side. Either way, both teams could either get the edge. 76ers has everything going for them, stats trends, etc. Notice how both teams come out firing and all and still manage to not get over the total in both occasions this season? That's where our money should be going. In the last 10 head to head matchup between them it only went over the total twice! With the game set in the afternoon, you could say that we're looking at a pretty good spot for the UNDER here since most teams come out flat on afternoon games.
Philly had their way against New York twice this season already. Knicks always have one quarter where they lay an egg which costs them the game. Elton Brand has always been big against them since Amare could barely put a lid on the man he's defending. Anyway, I should make this shorter and the more I look into the game the more I'm compelled to not playing a side. Either way, both teams could either get the edge. 76ers has everything going for them, stats trends, etc. Notice how both teams come out firing and all and still manage to not get over the total in both occasions this season? That's where our money should be going. In the last 10 head to head matchup between them it only went over the total twice! With the game set in the afternoon, you could say that we're looking at a pretty good spot for the UNDER here since most teams come out flat on afternoon games.
It's no secret that the Heat have problem with teams who have a dominant force in the paint. Eric Gordon gone is huge but good thing we got Baron. Don't get me wrong, Baron Davis is one mofo that loves showing up against the better teams/players in the league. Against, Miami's Big 3, he will most likely show up, Anyway, Miami's super friends dropped almost 90 against the Clippers which spelled the difference with their support system going cold and barely producing any points.
I hate to be on the other side of the Heat having their eyes here for revenge. With the way their bench is producing and at the rate James and Wade is playing, they'll pretty much make that 5 100+ points game in a row. The least the Clippers managed the last 10 games is 83 and 88. If they average close to 98 per game, given the Heat's home dominance in both defense and offense you can say that we'd see the clippers barely breaking past the century mark and comfortably landing somewhere 90 to 95. The Heat can definitely put up the points and at least score 95 to 105. With the way their bench is producing plus the 26- 14-2 home-road O/U record, you can say that this game is going OVER 201.5. I see the Heat playing like the way they did against the Bobcats and getting close to that score. I say this game barely goes over the total.
It's no secret that the Heat have problem with teams who have a dominant force in the paint. Eric Gordon gone is huge but good thing we got Baron. Don't get me wrong, Baron Davis is one mofo that loves showing up against the better teams/players in the league. Against, Miami's Big 3, he will most likely show up, Anyway, Miami's super friends dropped almost 90 against the Clippers which spelled the difference with their support system going cold and barely producing any points.
I hate to be on the other side of the Heat having their eyes here for revenge. With the way their bench is producing and at the rate James and Wade is playing, they'll pretty much make that 5 100+ points game in a row. The least the Clippers managed the last 10 games is 83 and 88. If they average close to 98 per game, given the Heat's home dominance in both defense and offense you can say that we'd see the clippers barely breaking past the century mark and comfortably landing somewhere 90 to 95. The Heat can definitely put up the points and at least score 95 to 105. With the way their bench is producing plus the 26- 14-2 home-road O/U record, you can say that this game is going OVER 201.5. I see the Heat playing like the way they did against the Bobcats and getting close to that score. I say this game barely goes over the total.
Home team takes this one. Check my writeup on Orlando's production against the better defensive teams in the league plus the Celtic's size which should be able to play Dwight better defensively (as did the Heat), I say the Celtics get this one. They are far better 1 vs 1 defenders than the heat and even better in playing team defense. With so much data between the two, I say we almost see similar events unfolding en route to the UNDER. Short and Sweet.
Home team takes this one. Check my writeup on Orlando's production against the better defensive teams in the league plus the Celtic's size which should be able to play Dwight better defensively (as did the Heat), I say the Celtics get this one. They are far better 1 vs 1 defenders than the heat and even better in playing team defense. With so much data between the two, I say we almost see similar events unfolding en route to the UNDER. Short and Sweet.
Just to add some thoughts on the refs for today's Boston-Orlando game that support Milkman's play:
Today's Celtics/Magic refs are Dick Bavetta, Jason Phillips, and Olandis Poole. Of note, all stats from last two seasons:
Dick Bavetta: Magic are 2-4 ATS. The Under is 5-1. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS. The Under is 6-4.
Jason Phillips: Magic are 4-6 ATS. The under is 7-3. The Celtics are 5-3-2 ATS. Under is 6-4.
Olandis Poole: Magic are 3-3, Under is 4-2. Celtics are 6-2 ATS, Under is 6-2.
These are all big time trends favoring both the Under and the Celtics covering.
Just to throw some more info, looking at all three refs combined, for this total points range (185-194.5), it's split on O/U at 24-23. For home favorites of 4.5 or less, home team is 13-18. Bump it up to favored by 5-9, home team is 27-23. Pretty balanced, which makes it a little weird there is such a deciding difference for each team.
Just to add some thoughts on the refs for today's Boston-Orlando game that support Milkman's play:
Today's Celtics/Magic refs are Dick Bavetta, Jason Phillips, and Olandis Poole. Of note, all stats from last two seasons:
Dick Bavetta: Magic are 2-4 ATS. The Under is 5-1. The Celtics are 8-2 ATS. The Under is 6-4.
Jason Phillips: Magic are 4-6 ATS. The under is 7-3. The Celtics are 5-3-2 ATS. Under is 6-4.
Olandis Poole: Magic are 3-3, Under is 4-2. Celtics are 6-2 ATS, Under is 6-2.
These are all big time trends favoring both the Under and the Celtics covering.
Just to throw some more info, looking at all three refs combined, for this total points range (185-194.5), it's split on O/U at 24-23. For home favorites of 4.5 or less, home team is 13-18. Bump it up to favored by 5-9, home team is 27-23. Pretty balanced, which makes it a little weird there is such a deciding difference for each team.
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