OK, back on the MLB wagon today. Feel like I was over-thinking a little, which for me in baseball is bad, there are too many games to overthink one day/game. Going to rely less on my subjectivity and focus more on the numbers and playing games I think I have a long term edge on. I'm also going to change my wagering style a little to risk less (and win less of course) when I'm on bigger faves.
Pads ML (+165) -- Risking 0.75 units to win 1.238
Mets ML (-190) -- Risking 1 unit to win 0.527
Dodgers ML (-180) -- Risking 1 unit to win 0.555
Not super excited about going against Scherzer, but Pads have bounced back to win 3 in a row after a cold spell, and Strahm has been good outside of his first start. Price is key here, would not play it at +130 or lower.
Hopefully DeGrom comes back strong, either way Brew Crew is cold, which is bad, unlike Cold Brews.
Pirates are cold as well and offensively struggling. LA left Chi-town with a win and a little momentum headed back to Sunny LA.
Just my briefs thoughts on each one. Digger into the numbers, I found that teams on 3+ game win streaks at a +130 or higher are a good bet long term. Not like insanely good, but profitable. That's a sample size of around 150+. For the Mets/LA, it's similar, but in those cases fading a team on a losing streak 3+ with a fave in the 170-200 range and a decent pitcher going and decent team themselves. My sample size is lower for that, but still showing profit over around 70 plays over the past 4 seasons.
One thing I also need to do more is stop shopping for better prices, which is basically sports betting 101. For now I'm a little pigeon holed and my offerings, so I'll work with what I have until I can start expanding my options again. Bankroll management can be interesting when you have a house/car/family/bills. It can be done of course, I just need a little more discipline in that area.
Best of luck today.
I think you are approaching the challenge of betting MLB in a
way that over the long run will pay dividends for you. Finding a
data point that will consistently give you a positive result is a
great start.
When you find 2 or 3 data points that also give you a positive
result will lead to more of those picks going to the win side of
the ledger. Always keep digging bud.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
OK, back on the MLB wagon today. Feel like I was over-thinking a little, which for me in baseball is bad, there are too many games to overthink one day/game. Going to rely less on my subjectivity and focus more on the numbers and playing games I think I have a long term edge on. I'm also going to change my wagering style a little to risk less (and win less of course) when I'm on bigger faves.
Pads ML (+165) -- Risking 0.75 units to win 1.238
Mets ML (-190) -- Risking 1 unit to win 0.527
Dodgers ML (-180) -- Risking 1 unit to win 0.555
Not super excited about going against Scherzer, but Pads have bounced back to win 3 in a row after a cold spell, and Strahm has been good outside of his first start. Price is key here, would not play it at +130 or lower.
Hopefully DeGrom comes back strong, either way Brew Crew is cold, which is bad, unlike Cold Brews.
Pirates are cold as well and offensively struggling. LA left Chi-town with a win and a little momentum headed back to Sunny LA.
Just my briefs thoughts on each one. Digger into the numbers, I found that teams on 3+ game win streaks at a +130 or higher are a good bet long term. Not like insanely good, but profitable. That's a sample size of around 150+. For the Mets/LA, it's similar, but in those cases fading a team on a losing streak 3+ with a fave in the 170-200 range and a decent pitcher going and decent team themselves. My sample size is lower for that, but still showing profit over around 70 plays over the past 4 seasons.
One thing I also need to do more is stop shopping for better prices, which is basically sports betting 101. For now I'm a little pigeon holed and my offerings, so I'll work with what I have until I can start expanding my options again. Bankroll management can be interesting when you have a house/car/family/bills. It can be done of course, I just need a little more discipline in that area.
Best of luck today.
I think you are approaching the challenge of betting MLB in a
way that over the long run will pay dividends for you. Finding a
data point that will consistently give you a positive result is a
great start.
When you find 2 or 3 data points that also give you a positive
result will lead to more of those picks going to the win side of
DeGrom got hit pretty good, but luckily Yates held on for us and the Dodgers TCB, so a 2-1 night and +0.78 units (about), so I guess we can be happy about that!!
Might jump back on the Pads again, waiting to see if we can get a better price. If it dips I'll probably pass. I'm seeing +155 now which I'd probably play it at for at least a half unit. Eyeing the Rangers too, but they are pretty cold. I like Minor on the hill though (vs. Leake).
Or maybe I'll take the day off and watch the late April snow storm roll in! LOL (kidding, playing poker tonight).
DeGrom got hit pretty good, but luckily Yates held on for us and the Dodgers TCB, so a 2-1 night and +0.78 units (about), so I guess we can be happy about that!!
Might jump back on the Pads again, waiting to see if we can get a better price. If it dips I'll probably pass. I'm seeing +155 now which I'd probably play it at for at least a half unit. Eyeing the Rangers too, but they are pretty cold. I like Minor on the hill though (vs. Leake).
Or maybe I'll take the day off and watch the late April snow storm roll in! LOL (kidding, playing poker tonight).
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.