I'm trying to get this bet together with him for the month of May, but it's tough to grind out the logistics to a bet like this.
The conversation started because he had hit a six leg parlay for 50 bucks to hit at just over a grand. He seemed pretty cocky about it, so I told him that anytime you hit a six leg parlay, it's more luck than anything. Then, he started insisting that with the amount he knows about the MLB combined with the research he does for his bets, that he believes that he could consistently hit those parlays roughly 1 out of 10 times. 50 to win about a 1000, and he'd net 500 dollars roughly every couple of weeks.
I tried to explain to him why betting parlays will kill you in the long run, but he insists that he can hit at this rate consistently and always net money.
So I proposed to him that starting on May 1st and through the end of the month, that he put together 20 six leg money line MLB parlays. If he hits two to stay at the pace he believes he can hit, I'll back his next ten parlays. Meaning, I'll basically send him 500 bucks. If he can't hit two of them, he'll owe me 10x one of his betting units. Meaning, also… 500 bucks.
20 chances is a lot… clearly there's a shot he gets lucky on two of his first twenty. But is there anyway he has a huge advantage here? I mean, every single time he puts in a bet, it's a big long shot. Should I try to talk him into doing 15? Or… should I abandon this all together, since I am doomed and don't know it?
I was also thinking a clause in the bet needs to be that he can't bet with juice worse than -150 or so. Or else, he's not really living up to his word by hitting the type of bets that would net him the money he was speaking of. If I allow any bet in his six leg parlays, he can likely bet huge favorites everyday, and probably wind up hitting two eventually without a huge problem.
I'm trying to get this bet together with him for the month of May, but it's tough to grind out the logistics to a bet like this.
The conversation started because he had hit a six leg parlay for 50 bucks to hit at just over a grand. He seemed pretty cocky about it, so I told him that anytime you hit a six leg parlay, it's more luck than anything. Then, he started insisting that with the amount he knows about the MLB combined with the research he does for his bets, that he believes that he could consistently hit those parlays roughly 1 out of 10 times. 50 to win about a 1000, and he'd net 500 dollars roughly every couple of weeks.
I tried to explain to him why betting parlays will kill you in the long run, but he insists that he can hit at this rate consistently and always net money.
So I proposed to him that starting on May 1st and through the end of the month, that he put together 20 six leg money line MLB parlays. If he hits two to stay at the pace he believes he can hit, I'll back his next ten parlays. Meaning, I'll basically send him 500 bucks. If he can't hit two of them, he'll owe me 10x one of his betting units. Meaning, also… 500 bucks.
20 chances is a lot… clearly there's a shot he gets lucky on two of his first twenty. But is there anyway he has a huge advantage here? I mean, every single time he puts in a bet, it's a big long shot. Should I try to talk him into doing 15? Or… should I abandon this all together, since I am doomed and don't know it?
I was also thinking a clause in the bet needs to be that he can't bet with juice worse than -150 or so. Or else, he's not really living up to his word by hitting the type of bets that would net him the money he was speaking of. If I allow any bet in his six leg parlays, he can likely bet huge favorites everyday, and probably wind up hitting two eventually without a huge problem.
This intrigues me for the main reason, that I ony bet locally, which means you can take minimum of 3 picks on a single ticket.
my average ticket consists of 4 games per ticket, I win approx 1 time per week. When im hot I have hit over 3 in a week.
It is most definitely possible. An older asian guy that I always see in the store also gambles on 4 gamers. I have seen him cash thousands several times, and owner of store tell me he cashes daily...
This intrigues me for the main reason, that I ony bet locally, which means you can take minimum of 3 picks on a single ticket.
my average ticket consists of 4 games per ticket, I win approx 1 time per week. When im hot I have hit over 3 in a week.
It is most definitely possible. An older asian guy that I always see in the store also gambles on 4 gamers. I have seen him cash thousands several times, and owner of store tell me he cashes daily...
This intrigues me for the main reason, that I ony bet locally, which means you can take minimum of 3 picks on a single ticket.
my average ticket consists of 4 games per ticket, I win approx 1 time per week. When im hot I have hit over 3 in a week.
It is most definitely possible. An older asian guy that I always see in the store also gambles on 4 gamers. I have seen him cash thousands several times, and owner of store tell me he cashes daily...
So I would say yes it is possible
Well, this does raise some concerns to me. Twenty is also a lot of chances to hit two times. But… on the flip side, these are six teamers. Six is a lot of legs, and I still do believe that it's just asking too much to go your way the vast majority of the time.
I might see if he is willing to go to 15 attempts to hit two. He seemed to have a pretty big ego about the whole thing, so he likely believes he can do that. If this bet happens, I'll update his daily progress in this thread.
This intrigues me for the main reason, that I ony bet locally, which means you can take minimum of 3 picks on a single ticket.
my average ticket consists of 4 games per ticket, I win approx 1 time per week. When im hot I have hit over 3 in a week.
It is most definitely possible. An older asian guy that I always see in the store also gambles on 4 gamers. I have seen him cash thousands several times, and owner of store tell me he cashes daily...
So I would say yes it is possible
Well, this does raise some concerns to me. Twenty is also a lot of chances to hit two times. But… on the flip side, these are six teamers. Six is a lot of legs, and I still do believe that it's just asking too much to go your way the vast majority of the time.
I might see if he is willing to go to 15 attempts to hit two. He seemed to have a pretty big ego about the whole thing, so he likely believes he can do that. If this bet happens, I'll update his daily progress in this thread.
its not even too long ago that I hit a 7 teamer and a 9teamer. And I've hit more than that, the problem is.. These are the plays that scare me and I usually didn't put more than $1-5. If we always knew better I would have bet $100-1000 on it and I wouldn't be here, I'd be rich.
I suggest 5-8 teamers for max profit and to play very little $ but never always throw in your guaranteed play in all of them and by all of them I mean make mixes and matches of different plays on a couple of parlays in one day. If you are doing $50 in parlays a day, don't do $50. Do 5 parlays of $10 each and try stuff. Then you will win in the long run somehow,some way
its not even too long ago that I hit a 7 teamer and a 9teamer. And I've hit more than that, the problem is.. These are the plays that scare me and I usually didn't put more than $1-5. If we always knew better I would have bet $100-1000 on it and I wouldn't be here, I'd be rich.
I suggest 5-8 teamers for max profit and to play very little $ but never always throw in your guaranteed play in all of them and by all of them I mean make mixes and matches of different plays on a couple of parlays in one day. If you are doing $50 in parlays a day, don't do $50. Do 5 parlays of $10 each and try stuff. Then you will win in the long run somehow,some way
I would say ues to 15, very unlikely he will hit 2 in 15 tries.
6 gamers are not the easiest, I have hit so many 4 out of 5s and by a lot I mean everyday, so, id say he has ery small chance of hitting in 15 tries.
@Remeedella yes I know what you mean I have hit some big time parlays but I neer bet like I would on a 2 gamer, well cuz the odds are the odds, but if bets were around 100 I would be cashing big time at least 3 -4 times per year.
I would say ues to 15, very unlikely he will hit 2 in 15 tries.
6 gamers are not the easiest, I have hit so many 4 out of 5s and by a lot I mean everyday, so, id say he has ery small chance of hitting in 15 tries.
@Remeedella yes I know what you mean I have hit some big time parlays but I neer bet like I would on a 2 gamer, well cuz the odds are the odds, but if bets were around 100 I would be cashing big time at least 3 -4 times per year.
If he's that good at hitting six teamers with minimal juice (i.e. -130 or lower) than he should be worrying about making some side wager with you, he's should be at home counting his cash, not to mention absolutely CLEANING UP on straight plays.
If he's that good at hitting six teamers with minimal juice (i.e. -130 or lower) than he should be worrying about making some side wager with you, he's should be at home counting his cash, not to mention absolutely CLEANING UP on straight plays.
If he's that good at hitting six teamers with minimal juice (i.e. -130 or lower) than he should be worrying about making some side wager with you, he's should be at home counting his cash, not to mention absolutely CLEANING UP on straight plays.
Yeah, this is what I said to him. 20 is just a lot of attempts though, could get lucky. But the odds, I have to think are in my favor.
@Cwalk - I do not believe open parlays would be included. The conversation led me to believe that this would be 20 6 team parlays, all taking place on an individual day of action throughout the month of May. All money line baseball bets with minimal juice.
If he's that good at hitting six teamers with minimal juice (i.e. -130 or lower) than he should be worrying about making some side wager with you, he's should be at home counting his cash, not to mention absolutely CLEANING UP on straight plays.
Yeah, this is what I said to him. 20 is just a lot of attempts though, could get lucky. But the odds, I have to think are in my favor.
@Cwalk - I do not believe open parlays would be included. The conversation led me to believe that this would be 20 6 team parlays, all taking place on an individual day of action throughout the month of May. All money line baseball bets with minimal juice.
What did I tell you about posting this about me on here. I m trying to remain lowkey. And actually I told you I hit a 6 teamer once every 9 tries ,not 10
What did I tell you about posting this about me on here. I m trying to remain lowkey. And actually I told you I hit a 6 teamer once every 9 tries ,not 10
Yeah, this is what I said to him. 20 is just a lot of attempts though, could get lucky. But the odds, I have to think are in my favor.
@Cwalk - I do not believe open parlays would be included. The conversation led me to believe that this would be 20 6 team parlays, all taking place on an individual day of action throughout the month of May. All money line baseball bets with minimal juice.
Yes, obviously he could get lucky and hit 2 in that span. But that's what it would be, lucky.
Yeah, this is what I said to him. 20 is just a lot of attempts though, could get lucky. But the odds, I have to think are in my favor.
@Cwalk - I do not believe open parlays would be included. The conversation led me to believe that this would be 20 6 team parlays, all taking place on an individual day of action throughout the month of May. All money line baseball bets with minimal juice.
Yes, obviously he could get lucky and hit 2 in that span. But that's what it would be, lucky.
he just needs to select a 6 teamer that pays out a minimum of 1000 on a 50 bet. Shouldn't matter which games he picks or what the juice is as long as the payout is what he claims he is hitting on those 6 teamers. Even if he picks 6 games at -140 he will just barely crack $1000 payout on a 50 bet.
he just needs to select a 6 teamer that pays out a minimum of 1000 on a 50 bet. Shouldn't matter which games he picks or what the juice is as long as the payout is what he claims he is hitting on those 6 teamers. Even if he picks 6 games at -140 he will just barely crack $1000 payout on a 50 bet.
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